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Managers

The Best Managers Not Yet Eligible for the Hall of Miller and Eric

In December 2016, the Expansion Era Veterans Committee will meet at baseball’s winter meetings and probably elect the far-from-deserving Jack Morris instead of Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, Dwight Evans, or any of our other favorite players of the time. Par for the course. But they will also be rendering a decision on a few managers eligible for the first time. With that in mind, it seemed like a good time to examine the best managers not yet eligible for the Hall of Miller and Eric.

We have three classes of contemporary managers to examine. Obviously the first are those who will be eligible for election this winter according to the Hall’s rules (which we follow). The second are those retired or otherwise out of work who are not yet eligible. Finally, those who are still actively employed.

Eligible in December

To be elected for 2017, a manager must be either out of the dugout at least five years or 65 years old and retired six months. Let’s look at managers with 1,000 or more games using our usual criteria. Just so you know, through our 21st managerial election (of 22), the average HoME manager looks like this:

Joe Average

  • Manager Score (which uses z-scores to index all 1,000-game managers): 15.8 career 23.5 peak
  • Record: 1901-1569, .555
  • Historically Adjusted Record (which normalizes for outlying teams): 1876-1594, .545
  • Pythagenpat: +35 wins, win percentage 1.020 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected (which establishes expectations based on previous seasons a regressor to .500): +79 wins, 1.050 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 3, +1.9 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 5.5, +3.24 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 9.7, +5.12 vs expected

Davey Johnson

  • Manager Score: 14.4 career 19.2 peak
  • Record: 1372-1071, .562
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 1372-1071, .562
  • Pythagenpat: +39 wins, win percentage, 1.031 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +112 wins, 1.090 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 1, +0.4 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 1, -0.6 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 6, +2.3 vs expected

Davey Johnson is a really interesting candidate for the HoME. In many respects, he’s the contemporary version of Al Lopez (though stylistically, he’s Earl Weaver’s son). Johnson has a career of similar length, and by percentage, like Lopez, he’s the winninngest manager of his time. Davey’s .562 percentage would be the ninth best winning percentage among HoMERs. However, because Davey managed in a time with fewer outlying teams, his historically adjusted winning percentage (which remains the same) would be sixth. Like Lopez, Davey shines as a tactician, with a real-life record well above his team’s pypat record, same as Walt Alston and Billy Southworth, and trailing only Lopez, Weaver, and Frank Selee. Davey tops everyone in the HoME except Southworth in terms of beating his teams’ expected wins. Again, like Lopez, where Johnson falls short is October, where he won just won title, made the series only once, and didn’t make the playoffs as frequently as the typical HoME manager (in fairness, his team was in first place when the 1994 post-season was canceled). Overall, it’s a strong record, though without the strength of Lopez’s overwhelming winning percentage and pythagenpat credentials, Davey won’t be as easy a choice.

Jim Leyland

  • Manager Score: 3.1 career 17.2 peak
  • Record: 1769-1728, .506
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 1769-1728, .506
  • Pythagenpat: +5 wins, win percentage 1.003 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +19 wins, 1.010 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 1, +0.2 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 3, +0.9 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 8, +3.0 vs expected

Jim Leyland seems like the sort who will receive a great deal of public Hall of Fame support. He probably doesn’t deserve a plaque. In fact, he reminds me in many ways of Wilbert Robinson or Lou Piniella. Both of those guys had long careers like Leyland, both had so-so records and were popular media figures as well. More crucially, neither Uncle Wilbert nor Sweet Lou had records substantially better than their underlying indicators or expectations. The suggestion is that they weren’t great managers though they had great seasons. Of course, we should be careful to note, as Chris Jaffe does in his excellent Evaluating Baseball Managers that Leyland’s record is dragged down by the firesale Marlins of 1998. The Marlins (54-108) were -7 versus pypat and an incredible -30 versus expected wins. Back those out of Leyland’s record, and he’s at +12 against pypat, +49 versus expected, and a .514 winning percentage. Which is still a good match for Piniella (+8, +41, .517). Unless something changes in how we look at Leyland’s record, he probably wouldn’t get my vote…since I didn’t vote for Robinson or Piniella.

Charlie Manuel

  • Manager Score: 4.2 career 8.3 peak
  • Record: 1000-826, .548
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 1000-826, .548
  • Pythagenpat: +21 wins, win percentage 1.022 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +22 wins, 1.021 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 1, +0.6 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 2, +0.6 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 6, +2.6 vs expected

Charlie Manuel was an awfully good manager in his relatively short career. His record against pypat, expectations, and in October are as good or better than Jim Leyland’s (see above) who had a career twice as long. Sadly, he didn’t get a crack at the pilot’s seat until somewhat late in life. If he was pretty good as an old guy, I imagine as a younger, more vigorous man he might have won a lot of games.

Jerry Manuel

  • Manager Score: -3.3 career -8.1 peak
  • Record: 704-683, .508
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 704-683, .508
  • Pythagenpat: +3 wins, win percentage 1.003 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +8 wins, 1.009 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.3 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 0, -0.8 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 1, -1.4 vs expected

The other Manuel. Not as good as Charlie, obviously, and mediocre for a manager with a career of this length.

Jim Riggleman

  • Manager Score: -13.9 career -17.6 peak
  • Record: 589-720, .450
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 589-720, .450
  • Pythagenpat: -32 wins, win percentage 0.949 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: -43 wins, 0.932 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.3 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 0, -1.0 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 1, -1.0 vs expected

Riggleman is probably one of the worst managers among those who piloted 1,000 games. He’s not Jimmy Wilson or Buddy Bell bad, but Hugh Duffy bad for sure. Riggleman’s other peers are the likes of Patsy Donovan, Tom Loftus, and Jimmy McAleer, though he’s worse than them all. It’s a mystery to me how his career lasted 1,300 games.

Not Yet Eligible

Here we have a combination of the merely out of work (Black, Mattingly) and the likely out of work forever (Guillen, Tracy, Washington). Then there’s Lloyd McClendon, about whom fans in Seattle and Pittsburgh would rather not hear about….

Bud Black

  • Manager Score: -7.5 career -13.2 peak
  • Record: 649-713, .477
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 649-713, .477
  • Pythagenpat: -5 wins, win percentage 0.993 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: -19 wins, 0.971 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.3 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 0, -1.2 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 0, -2.7 vs expected

I was as shocked as you were to hear that the Nats wanted to hire Black to manage an incredibly talented roster. Maybe their own ineptitude saved them from hiring an awful manager.

Ron Gardenhire

  • Manager Score: -0.7 career, +4.4 peak
  • Record: 1068-1039, .507
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 1068-1039, .507
  • Pythagenpat: +16 wins, win percentage 1.014 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +10 wins, 1.010 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.4 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 0, -1.2 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 6, +2.2 vs expected

There’s a lot of Jim Leyland in Ron Gardenhire, but if he wins a few of those playoff series, maybe we instead see a lot of Tommy Lasorda in him. Tommy’s career is longer, of course, and his record is superficially a bit better (.526 win percentage), but the fundamentals are similar. Lasorda is actually 8 wins below pypat and just 9 wins above expectations. But he’s got all that October sheen. Like Lasorda, Gardenhire appears to be a roughly average manager overall who is strongly connected to a single franchise. His second act seems far from assured because his name hasn’t surfaced frequently or with seriousness in discussions of managerial openings.

Ozzie Guillen

  • Manager Score: +0.4 career, -2.7 peak
  • Record: 747-710, .513
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 747-710, .513
  • Pythagenpat: +19 wins, win percentage 1.026 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +5 wins, 1.008 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 1, +0.7 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 1, +0.2 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 2, -0.6 vs expected

While Ozzie might tell you how great a job he’s done, his record is just a little above average at best for a long-time manager. Though he had a longer career, there’s something attractive about the idea that Chuck Dressen is Ozzie’s best historical comp.

Lloyd McClendon

  • Manager Score: -11.0 career, -17.0 peak
  • Record: 499-607, .451
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 499-607, .451
  • Pythagenpat: -15 wins, win percentage 0.971 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: -19 wins, 0.963 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.2 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 0, +0.9 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 0, -1.8 vs expected

Ladies and gentlemen, Jim Riggleman’s heir apparent.

Jim Tracy

  • Manager Score: -5.5 career, -6.8 peak
  • Record: 856-880, .493
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 856-880, .493
  • Pythagenpat: -3 wins, win percentage 0.995 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: -20 wins, 0.977 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.4 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 0, -1.4 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 2, -1.0 vs expected

Fans of Gene Lamont may find themselves ineffably drawn to the career of Jim Tracy. The rest of us will always remember that the road to managerial perdition leads through Colorado. Just ask Tracy, Don Baylor, Buddy Bell, or Jim Leyland.

Ron Washington

  • Manager Score: -3.1 career, -4.8 peak
  • Record: 664-611, .521
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 664-611, .521
  • Pythagenpat: +2 wins, win percentage 1.003 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: -1 wins, 0.999 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.3 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 2, +1.2 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 3, +0.4 vs expected

While Wash’s record reminds me somewhat of Cito Gaston’s or Bill Virdon’s, neither of them will got a HoME vote. The terrible truth for Rangers’ fans: Washington appears to have brought little or anything that any other typical manager couldn’t, and his mismanagement of games may have cost the team a championship or two. With his recent cocaine problems, it feels like a long shot that he’ll manage again.

Eric Wedge

  • Manager Score: -9.5 career, -12.6 peak
  • Record: 774-846, .478
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 774-846, .478
  • Pythagenpat: -28 wins, win percentage 0.965 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: -25 wins, 0.970 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.3 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 0, -0.9 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 1, -1.9 vs expected

This is the kind of record that doesn’t get a guy hired again. In fact, no team should hire Wedge based on what we know about him. On the other hand, stranger things have happened.

Active

Finally, we have the gents still in the dugout, but who’ve built enough of a career that we can put some analysis behind them.

Dusty Baker

  • Manager Score: +5.9 career, +12.8 peak
  • Record: 1671-1504, .526
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 1671-1504, .526
  • Pythagenpat: +24 wins, win percentage 1.015 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +76 wins, 1.046 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.7 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 1, -1.4 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 7, +2.0 vs expected

For such a cool cat, Baker draws controversy with alarming frequency. Whether the heat comes from his handling of pitchers, his penchant for veterans, or his own mouth. That stuff tends to obscure the fact that Dusty does a fine job in the dugout overall. His record mirrors Clark Griffith’s (1491-1367, .522; +26 pypat; +71 vs expectation) in many ways, and that’s pretty good since Griffith made it deep into our deliberations. Should the Nationals respond well to Baker and win a lot of ballgames and some pennants, he’s got a real shot. But if they don’t, his case will wither.

Bruce Bochy

  • Manager Score: +8.6 career, +16.9 peak
  • Record: 1702-1682, .503
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 1702-1682, .503
  • Pythagenpat: +21 wins, win percentage 1.012 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +35 wins, 1.022 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 3, +2.3 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 4, +1.3 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 7, +1.0 vs expected

If you had to put money on active manager to enter the Hall of Fame upon his eligibility, you’d have to pick Bochy. The number of managers with three World Series rings outside the Hall is zero. Bochy seems unlikely to test the wits of the VC very much, but for us, he may present a greater challenge. His record is in several ways somewhat average in nature, but despite some outward similarities to Jim Leyland, it’s better. Right now, this moment, the best argument for Bochy goes like this: Gee, Miller and Eric, you guys are taking Tommy Lasorda down to the very end, and Bochy’s second-order stats are better. That’s actually a pretty good case. Not bulletproof by any stretch, but pretty good. Bochy needn’t win any more titles to strengthen his claim, though they help, obviously. But another few seasons near 90 wins would help his cause.

Terry Collins

  • Manager Score: -4.3 career, -6.3 peak
  • Record: 838-850, .496
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 838-850, .496
  • Pythagenpat: -2 wins, win percentage 0.998 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: -1 wins, 0.999 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.4 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 1, -0.2 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 1, -2.2 vs expected

The reigning NL champions’ manager had a pretty good year in 2015, but not so many good years before that. He’s kind of like the Pinky Higgins of the aughts.

Terry Francona

  • Manager Score: 6.2 career, 12.2 peak
  • Record: 1287-1142, .530
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 1287-1142, .530
  • Pythagenpat: +16 wins, win percentage 1.013 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +46 wins, +1.037 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 2, +1.5 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 2, +0.4 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 6, +1.7 vs expected

Miller and I may have some trouble being objective about Tito, a favorite of both of ours. Francona is just 56 years old, and he’s already managed fifteen seasons. If he has the stomach for it, there’s a lot of time left for him to build up his case. Of course, winning another title will guarantee him the Hall of Fame, and it would likely lock up a HoME plaque as well given the positive effect such as season would have on his career figures. His career is now about as lengthy as Davey Johnson’s, and Johnson has a better resume overall. Which means that as a peak candidate, Tito could have trouble. But Leo Durocher’s career is within Tito’s grasp. Durocher went 2008-1709. Durocher managed 1,288 more games than Francona has so far. That’s about another eight seasons. Francona needs 721 wins to catch up, which is 90 a year. Unlikely, of course. Durocher’s historically adjusted wins come out to 1992, and Francona would need to win 88 a year for eight years to match the Hall of Famer. But Tito doesn’t need to match The Lip win for win. It’s the bulk. We voted for Durocher as combo peak and career candidate, and Francona could well fit that mold as well. He has one more title than Leo, and the trade off from a title to a few tens of wins might work out in Tito’s favor. Anyway, his record is very similar, maybe better, already than Whitey Herzog, our latest HoME entrant, which augurs well for Francona’s future.

John Gibbons

  • Manager Score: -6.3 career, -12.2 peak
  • Record: 555-541, .506
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 555-541, .506
  • Pythagenpat: -22 wins, win percentage 0.960 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +16 wins, +1.030 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.3 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 0, -0.8 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 1, -1.4 vs expected

Unless Toronto goes absolutely ape on the AL for the next few years, we won’t be writing about how great Gibbons is.

Joe Girardi

  • Manager Score: 6.5 career, 4.5 peak
  • Record: 813-645, .558
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 813-645, .558
  • Pythagenpat: +26 wins, win percentage 1.032 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +27 wins, +1.036 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 1, +0.7 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 1, +0.0 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 5, +2.3 vs expected

Girardi has done a fine, fine job in the cauldron/circus of New York. He’s about halfway to a HoME career. Simple as that.

Fredi Gonzalez

  • Manager Score: -1.9 career, -6.1 peak
  • Record: 701-664, .530
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 701-664, .530
  • Pythagenpat: +16 wins, win percentage 1.023 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: -1 wins, +0.997 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.3 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 2, -1 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 2, -0.5 vs expected

Liberty Media and John Hart aren’t doing Gonzalez any favors. Stripping the Braves cost Gonzalez 26 wins against expectation so far. He’s not an awful tactical manager these days, and he’s still relatively young for a guy at the helm, but with little to work with now, these next few years will likely block his opportunity to build much of a case. He’d be better off latching on with an older team that has some playoff possibilities. But that’s not how real life works.

Clint Hurdle

  • Manager Score: -3.5 career, -2.0 peak
  • Record: 965-1004, .490
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 965-1004, .490
  • Pythagenpat: -5 wins, win percentage 0.996 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +21 wins, +1.022 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.4 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 1, -0.7 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 4, +0.2 vs expected

Hmmm. Is Clint Hurdle the awful manager from his time in Colorado? Or the excellent manager from his time in Steel City? Maybe he’s both. He got his first manager job at age 44, and he’s now 57. It’s kind of like Francona’s path: poor Phillies teams and iffy performance early, much stronger as an older manager. This was Joe Torre’s path as well. He didn’t reach the Yanks until age 55. Casey Stengel managed awful teams awfully for parts of nine seasons then reached the Bronx at age 58 and became The Perfesser. So while Hurdle’s case is weak now, his recent success is backed by the second-order stats. He may now be an excellent manager. And being an excellent manager means different things than it used to. For example, it may mean that you cooperate with the front office more and not only use the information they give you but coordinate its usage with them more closely. Hurdle has had some game-management issues, but overall he’s gotten a lot better. It’s possible that working for an erratic organization like Colorado fed into the worst parts of Clint’s game, but that working with the disciplined and collaborative Pirates feeds the best of it. He’s one to watch if you want a dark-horse/late-career-renaissance candidate.

Joe Maddon

  • Manager Score: 1.1 career, 1.2 peak
  • Record: 878-794, .525
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 878-794, .525
  • Pythagenpat: +9 wins, win percentage 1.014 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +46 wins, 1.056 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.4 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 1, -0.2 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 5, +1.3 vs expected

Perhaps nothing shakes my confidence more in my own systems of anlaysis than Joe Maddon’s results. Credited as one of the game’s most intelligent and craftiest managers, Maddon looks merely so-so by these numbers. Despite that, Maddon now has a chance to make the kind of run that can get him into the Hall or the HoME. The Cubs have assembled a ton of young talent, much of which plays to Maddon’s creative roster-manipulation strengths. Simply being an otherwise successful and popular manager who wins the first Cubs World Series in more than 100 years might deliver him a Hall plaque. But to get into our institution, he’ll need a long streak of top-notch seasons. 2015 got him off to an excellent start.

Don Mattingly

  • Manager Score: +2.0 career, -5.1 peak
  • Record: 446-363, .551
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 446-363, .551
  • Pythagenpat: +11 wins, win percentage 1.028 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +25 wins, 1.059 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.2 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 0, -0.7 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 3, +1.3 vs expected

I idolized Mattingly growing up, so his strange managerial journey in LA pains me somewhat. As Joe Sheehan will tell you, Mattingly is tactically challenged, but as numerous headlines and Bill Plashcke columns remind us, Mattingly’s handling of Yasiel Puig calls into question his people skills. He’ll get another chance in Florida, which is kind of like buying a nice new home on the San Andreas fault.

Bob Melvin

  • Manager Score: -4.1 career, -5.7 peak
  • Record: 886-862, .507
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 886-862, .507
  • Pythagenpat: -5 wins, win percentage 0.993 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: -3 wins, 0.996 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.4 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 0, -1.4 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 3, -0.6 vs expected

Melvinball worked for three straight years, but fell on hard times in 2015. While Melvin has done well with his mix-and-match roster, and he’s only 54, he’s not quite as interesting a figure as Clint Hurdle and could well have peaked already.

Mike Scioscia

  • Manager Score: 10.3 career, 16.7 peak
  • Record: 1416-1176, .546
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 1416-1176, .546
  • Pythagenpat: +45 wins, win percentage 1.033 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +73 wins, 1.054 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 1, +0.5 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 1, -0.5 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 7, +1.8 vs expected

Really Scioscia could retire today and make the HoME. He tops Whitey Herzog already, and he may yet end up looking much like Bill McKechnie. Winning one more title would push him well up in the rankings, and simply continuing to crank out winning seasons will simply buoy his case. He’s got this Trout guy helping him in that regard….

Buck Showalter

  • Manager Score: 5.8 career, 7.4 peak
  • Record: 1340-1242, .519
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 1340-1242, .519
  • Pythagenpat: +13 wins, win percentage 1.012 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +104 wins, 1.085 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 0, -0.5 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 0, -1.6 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 4, -0.6 vs expected

Probably the most interesting candidate on the docket. Buck Showalter could be the best manager never to make the World Series. Lots of long-time managers didn’t make the Series, but virtually none of them were excellent managers. Many had fine reputations (like Gene Mauch or Felipe Alou). Others were simply bad at the job (Buddy Bell and Jimmie Wilson, of course). Most are somewhere between. Showalter, however, has the highest manager score of anyone with 1,000 games who hasn’t made the series. In fact, only he, Mattingly, and Paul Richards (1.9) have a positive manager score and didn’t/haven’t gotten there even once. Mattingly and Buck will get a few more cracks at it.

It’s curious that Buck’s performance in pythagenpat doesn’t match his reputation for deft bullpen handling. However, his record versus expectation really kicks butt. Now, a big chunk of that comes from 1999 when his second-year expansion D-Backs won 100 games. Our expected wins calculation posits a second-year expansion team to win 70 games based on the performance of previous expansion squads. However, those D-Backs bought heavily in free agency unlike most other start-up teams. But Showalter has played a part in the turnaround of two other franchises. In 1992, he took over the Yankees from Stump Merrill and began the transformation into the late Yankee dynasty. He didn’t do quite so well in Texas, though there Tom Hicks decided to pull the plug on salaries. However, in Baltimore, Buck took the mockery of the Orioles and turned them into the Mockinjays of the AL East. There’s something of a Dick Williams to Showalter, but Buck’s got one big thing missing from his resume: October. He’s only made the playoffs four times, and he’s never gotten to the last dance, let alone won it. Time’s ticking.

Ned Yost

  • Manager Score: -0.8 career, -0.6 peak
  • Record: 925-971, .488
  • Historically Adjusted Record: 925-971, .488
  • Pythagenpat: +3 wins, win percentage 1.004 times pypat win percentage
  • Expected: +35 wins, 1.039 times expected win percentage
  • Titles: 1, +0.6 vs expected
  • World Series Appearances: 2, 60.5 vs expected
  • Playoff Appearances: 3, -0.3 vs expected

Ned’s in his mid-50s and can still make a long run at it, but unless David Glass is going to open the bank more regularly, as the Royals get expensive, it’ll be hard for Yost to keep adding to his resume at the rate necessary to give him a real shot at the HoME. Just this year, he went into positive figures against pythagenpat for the first time in his career. His performance against expected wins does suggest that he’s played a key role in the Royals’ turnaround over the last three years, but that could also be the maturation of their talent. Or Wade Davis. At this juncture, he’s got a ton of work to do.

The Last Word…for Now

Let’s sort all this out then.

Electable Now

  • Scioscia

Really Close

  • Johnson

Might Be Electable Soon

  • Baker
  • Bochy
  • Francona
  • Showalter

Wait and See

  • Girardi
  • Hurdle
  • Maddon
  • Mattingly
  • Yost

Horseshoes and Hand Grenades

  • Leyland
  • C Manuel

Virtually No Way

  • Collins
  • Gardenhire
  • Gibbons
  • Gonzalez
  • Guillen
  • J Manuel
  • Melvin
  • Washington

Never electable unless we enter the Bizarro World dimension

  • Black
  • McClendon
  • Riggleman
  • Tracy
  • Wedge
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Institutional History

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