you're reading...
Sidebars

Home Standings Part II: Finally, fully updated

On Monday, we began our look at the HoME team cap standings with defunct franchises as well as the bottom third of the current league. Some of those expansion squads and the ones we’ll talk about in a moment actually have a chance to climb into the Ring of Sixteen. None has yet, but the day may be coming soon, ya know. Once again, we’ll look at each team’s future HoME outlook by examining their current HoMErs, retired players with a 95 or higher CHEWS+, and active players with a good shot (CHEWS+ through the 2016 season).

#20–11

TEAM                        YEARS    HoMERS /YEAR
===================================================
20 Kansas City Royals     1969–2017   3.18   0.08
19 LA Angels of Anaheim   1961–2017   3.92   0.08
18 Houston Astros         1962–2017   4.85   0.10
17 New York Mets          1962–2017   4.94   0.10
16 Minnesota Twins        1901–2017   6.07   0.06
15 Cincinnati Reds        1882-2017   9.20   0.07
14 Pittsburgh Pirates     1882–2017   9.83   0.08
13 Philadelphia Phillies  1883–2017  10.02   0.08
12 Baltimore Orioles      1901–2017  10.05   0.09
11 Chicago White Sox      1901–2017  10.50   0.10

Kansas City Royals

  • HoMErs: George Brett (100%), Kevin Appier (70%), Bret Saberhagen (65%), John Schuerholz (37%), Whitey Herzog (30%), David Cone (15%), Gaylord Perry (2%)
  • Retired: Jim Sundberg (95)
  • Active: Carlos Beltran (115), Zack Grienke (107), Ben Zobrist (90), Jose Bautista (82), Alex Gordon (69), Johnny Cueto (69)

Isn’t it kinda weird that George Brett is the only KC position player to make the HoME? While Beltran (35% of a career) and Grienke (40%) will give the R’s a nice boost, no one else is an odds-on favorite quite yet. Zobrist is inching closer, but in his mid-30s, his game could collapse at any moment. Alex Gordon’s run at immortality has stalled thanks to injuries. Cueto is still very much making his case, but he spent only about two months in Royal blue. Jose Bautista spent less time than even that. So looks the team will at best tread HoME water for some time to come, and at worst will be forced to dip their crowns as other clubs pass them by. Unless, that is, Sal Perez takes a step forward as a hitter in his late 20s and deep into his 30s.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

  • HoMErs: Chuck Finley (84%), Bobby Grich (59%), Nolan Ryan (41%), Jim Edmonds (37%), Rod Carew (34%), Buzzie Bavasi (24%), Reggie Jackson (24%), Bobby Bonds (14%), Tony Phillips (12%), Dick Williams (11%), Kevin Appier (11%), Bert Blyleven (10%), Frank Robinson (10%), Dave Winfield (9%), Don Sutton (8%), Eddie Murray (1%), Rickey Henderson (1%), Luis Tiant (1%), Willie Davis (1%), Whitey Herzog (+0%).
  • Retired: Vlad Guerrero (101), Bobby Abreu (95), Mark Langston (95), Harry Dalton
  • Active: Albert Pujols (165), Mike Trout (118), Zack Grienke (107), Bartolo Colon (86), John Lackey (72), Joe Maddon

It’s not a bad outlook for the Angels. They’ve got enough to stay ahead of the Royals and might have enough cushion to keep up with the hard-charging teams behind that. On the other hand, in the longer term, the team has little in the minor league system and may be due for a rebuild, so you Halo Hombres might be facing a long drought after Mike Trout. Who by the way, you might notice already has a compelling case for the HoME based on his performance through 2016. He’s on a 10-WAR pace again this year.

Houson Astros

  • HoMErs: Jeff Bagwell (100%), Craig Biggio (100%), Jose Cruz (83%), Jimmy Wynn (75%), Joe Morgan (40%), Nolan Ryan (34%), Jeff Kent (12%), Roger Clemens (11%), Don Sutton (7%), Leo Durocher (5%), Eddie Mathews (4%), Ivan Rodriguez (3%), Robin Roberts (3%), Buddy Bell (3%), Curt Schilling (3%), Randy Johnson (2%), Kenny Lofton (1%)
  • Retired: Andy Pettitte (102), Roy Oswalt (101), Cesar Cedeño (98), Lance Berkman (95), Bobby Abreu (95)
  • Active: Carlos Beltran (115), Brian McCann (72)

If we elect Oswalt, then the Astros have enough on hand to rocket past the lowest member in the Ring of Sixteen (about 1.2 careers). Even if not, they have a wide launch window. Unlike the Angels and Royals, the Stros have youngsters with the right stuff to take off into stardom. Carlos Correa, Dallas Keuchel, Jose Altuve, and maybe even George Springer have HoME liftoff potential. Put this team in the watch bucket. And they are awfully close to passing…

New York Mets

  • HoMErs: Tom Seaver (63%), Mike Piazza (51%), Keith Hernandez (43%), Davey Johnson (41%), David Cone (41%), George Weiss (32%), Gary Carter (32%), Tom Glavine (23%), Jeff Kent (21%), Bret Saberhagen (20%), Pedro Martinez (18%), Joe Torre (16%), Casey Stengel (15%), Eddie Murray (10%), Nolan Ryan (10%), Roberto Alomar (9%), Ken Boyer (9%), Kevin Appier (8%), Orel Hershiser (6%), Duke Snider (5%), Rickey Henderson (5%), Richie Ashburn (5%), Willie Mays (4%), Willie Randolph (4%), Gary Sheffield (3%), Warren Spahn (3%), Tony Phillips (3%), Yogi Berra (+0%)
  • Retired: Johan Santaña (110), John Olerud (99), Dwight Gooden (99), Bobby Abreu (95), Frank Cashen
  • Active: Carlos Beltran (115), David Wright (101), Curtis Granderson (86), Bartolo Colon (86), Sandy Alderson

The Mets could flex some serious HoME muscle. Santaña certainly has my eye, Beltran’s basically a given, and Wright is right on my borderline even if he never plays again. Add them up, and they’d be worth a minimum of a player and a half, maybe almost two. That’s enough to bust into the ring of sixteen. There’s also considerable young talent on the current roster. Michael Conforto is the only young hitter with potential for special things (if the team would quite jerking him around), but we already know that several of their pitchers have Hall kind of talent. But can they convert to a HoME career? Noah Syndergaard, of course. Who knows whether Matt Harvey can recapture his form, but if so, he’s got a shot. Jacob DeGrom has been great when he’s been healthy. I won’t tell you that all or most of these guys will end up near the HoME, but one might. That is if Mr. Met will leave Thor alone….

The Ring of Sixteen: The next big step for our expansion clubs is to slide into the sixteenth spot. Our next entrant has the lowest total of HoME careers among any of the teams thought of as the original AL/NL teams of the early two-league era. Consider these franchises have 60 to 100 years on their younger competitors, it’s impressive that any latter-day teams could make a run at entering the Ring of Sixteen, and it’s, in a darker way, impressive that one of the sixteen has been this unbelievably bad at collecting and locking down great players.

Minnesota Twins

  • HoMErs: Walter Johnson (100%), Sam Rice (96%), Clark Griffith (70%), Rod Carew (66%), Goose Goslin (59%), Bert Blyleven (51%), Joe Cronin (47%), Early Wynn (28%), Stan Coveleski (17%), Paul Molitor (15%), Wes Ferrell (14%), Al Simmons (10%), Ed Delahanty (8%), Dave Winfield (7%), Bob Johnson (6%), Tris Speaker (5%), Graig Nettles (3%), Luis Tiant (3%), Steve Carlton (1%), Bobby Veach (1%), George Sisler (1%)
  • Retired: Jim Thome (115), Johan Santaña (110)
  • Active: Joe Mauer (109), Andy MacPhail

Yah know, that’s a heck of a pickle they got themselves into. They’ve got it worse than any other olde tyme team. How come our team is goinabe the first one of the original-16 that’s bein’ passed by some lousy expansion team? That Miguel Sano, though, he’s pretty darned important. He could be a true star and can make a HoME-run! That’ll help our Twinkies keep those Mets and Astros at bay. Well, it’s not like Brian Dozier’s going to keep it up forever after comin’ out of nowhere. And when Byron Buxton is hittin’, he looks like a walleye put into saltwater. And we haven’t had a half-decent pitcher come along since they got Radke and Santana. Well, Idaknow. things’ll get better, donchaknow.

Cincinnati Reds

  • HoMErs: Johnny Bench (100%), Barry Larkin (100%), Bid McPhee (100%), Bob Howsam (84%), Pete Rose (78%), Bucky Walters (75%), Frank Robinson (55%), Joe Morgan (44%), Bill McKechnie (38%), Sparky Anderson (36%), Ken Griffey, Jr. (35%), Larry MacPhail (27%), Tom Seaver (23%), Sam Crawford (16%), Buddy Bell (16%), Davey Johnson (15%), Buck Ewing (12%), Ned Hanlon (10%), Sherry Magee (10%), Charlie Comiskey (7%), Harry Heilmann (6%), Joe Tinker (6%), Mordecai Brown (6%), Clark Griffith (5%), Hoss Radbourn (5%), Tommy Leach (4%), Jimmy Sheckard (2%), Dazzy Vance (1%), Amos Rusie (1%), Jim Edmonds (+0%), Al Simmons (+0%), Christy Mathewson (+0%)
  • Retired: Scott Rolen (115), Pete Browning (104), Heinie Groh (101), Noodles Hahn (99), Cesar Cedeño (98), Jake Beckley (97), Wally Berger (97), Ted Breitenstein (96), Tony Mullane (96)
  • Active: Joey Votto (104), Johnny Cueto (69)

At least the Redlegs won’t get rolled by a team half their age like the Twins. However, they are one of only two other squads in the Ring of Sixteen with fewer than 10 total HoME careers. Obviously, that’s not good. The Reds, like the Twins, have often seemed downright provincial in their operations, perhaps contributing to their general lack of HoME-level players. There’s an additional consideration here that works in their favor. Should we get play-by-play data in for Edd Roush that improves his standing, he could become a more serious candidate. The same could be true for Joe Kelley, but we know that’s not coming for eons. Aside from that, Heinie Groh is the most likely old-timer on the list to make it. The current Reds offer little in terms of future stardom, have a couple back doors to make progress, and, overall, should get into the 10+ club relatively soon. Unlike, say, the Twins.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • HoMErs: Joe Brown (100%), Roberto Clemente (100%), Max Carey (90%), Paul Waner (89%), Honus Wagner (87%), Arky Vaughan (80%), Barney Dreyfuss (76%), Tommy Leach (73%), Fred Clarke (65%), Pud Galvin (35%), Barry Bonds (34%), Vic Willis (29%), Bill McKechnie (19%), Rick Reuschel (17%), Bert Blyleven (14%), Branch Rickey (12%), Jack Glasscock (9%), Jim Bunning (9%), Hank Greenberg (8%), Rube Waddell (8%), Goose Gossage (7%), Ned Hanlon (5%), Kenny Lofton (4%), Connie Mack (4%), Deacon White (4%), Paul Hines (2%), Luis Tiant (2%), Joe Cronin (1%) Willie Randolph (1%), Billy Herman (1%), Dazzy Vance (+0%)
  • Retired: Pete Browning (104), Jim McCormick (103), Heinie Groh (101), Jake Beckley (97), Fred Dunlap (96), Ralph Kiner (96)
  • Active: Russell Martin (93), Andrew McCutchen (87), Jose Bautista (82)

Unless Andrew McCutchen rebounds, the Bucs stop here. Among retired players, only Groh has a real shot. Among the actives, we’ve already mentioned that Martin is in a doldrums in his mid-thirties, and we all know that McCutchen’s gone from MVP to swabbie. Gerrit Cole might help in the long term. Gregory Polanco doesn’t look like much of a hitter, and Sterling Marte just failed a pee test. As soon as Joey Votto is eligible for the HoME, the Reds will fly the flag of 14th placed. But, me hardees, that’s what happens when ye have two decades a losin’. Squawk! Two-decades a-losing’, two decades a losin’. Squawk!

Philadelphia Phillies

  • HoMErs: Mike Schmidt (100%), Ed Delahanty (85%), Richie Ashburn (84%), Robin Roberts (80%), Sherry Magee (74%), Steve Carlton (70%), Dick Allen (62%), Harry Wright (57%), Curt Schilling (51%), Pete Alexander (48%), Billy Hamilton (48%), Jim Bunning (40%), Elmer Flick (37%), Dave Bancroft (35%), Bucky Walters (25%), Nap Lajoie (21%), Pete Rose (20%), Art Fletcher (14%), Tim Keefe (12%), Pat Gillick (11%), Roger Connor (8%), Joe Morgan (4%), Kenny Lofton (4%), Dan Brouthers (3%), Kid Nichols (3%), Jimmie Fox (3%), Pedro Martinez (2%), Fergie Jenkins (+0%)
  • Retired: Roy Halladay (122), Scott Rolen (115), Jim Thome (115), Charlie Buffinton (107), Cupid Childs (106), Hughie Jennings (102), Roy Oswalt (101), Wally Berger (97), Cliff Lee (95), Bobby Abreu (95)
  • Active: Chase Utley (102), Cole Hamels (101), Terry Francona, Andy MacPhail

Sure seems like the Phils are going places over the next few HoME elections. Halladay, Thome, and Rolen will buy about 1.0 career. Chase Utley’s near the end of the string and a strong candidate. He’d add another 85% of a career. If Cole Hamels’ injury this year doesn’t wreck his career, he’s got a real nice shot at a plaque, fetching about two-thirds of a career. Tito is very, very close to being a slam dunk and worth about another third. Plus Childs, Jennings, and Oswalt represent small potential pickups as well, though none except maybe Oswalt, is nearly as sure as those mentioned above. At the MLB level now, the Phils have very little to offer as their best youngsters haven’t yet emerged from the minors. They are neck-and-neck with the O’s and not far behind the #12 and #11 teams either. In other words, things could get real interesting in the middle of the standings. Adding two-and-a-half careers would get the Phils inside the top and maybe even as high as #8.

Baltimore Orioles

  • HoMErs: Jim Palmer (100%), Cal Ripken Jr. (100%), Brooks Robinson (100%), Earl Weaver (100%), George Sisler (81%), Urban Shocker (65%), Bobby Wallace (64%), Eddie Murray (63%), Mike Mussina (56%), Bobby Grich (41%), Rafael Palmeiro (36%), Frank Robinson (30%), Wally Schang (20%), Jesse Burkett (19%), Goose Goslin (18%), Rube Waddell (18%), Roberto Alomar (18%), Robin Roberts (16%), Davey Johnson (13%), Pat Gillick (11%), Eddie Plank (8%), Branch Rickey (7%), Kevin Brown (5%), Reggie Jackson (5%), Sammy Sosa (4%) Dwight Evans (3%), Curt Schilling (2%), Tim Raines (+0%)
  • Retired: Jim Thome (115), Dizzy Dean (106), Vlad Guerrero (101), Will Clark (101), Dizzy Trout (95), Frank Cashen
  • Active: Jose Bautista (82), Manny Machado (71), Andy MacPhail, Buck Showalter

Another team where a long losing skid cost them a shot at a higher ranking. Thome’s tenure wasn’t long enough to make a difference, Dean’s was one game. Guerrero’s one season. Really, it’s Machado who can make the most difference. Whether Dylan Bundy or Kevin Gausman can be healthy or productive enough to join Manny, only time can tell. Either way, however, this team looks like its wings have been clipped, and it will a minimum of two ranks in the standings over the next couple decades.

Chicago White Sox

  • HoMErs: Luke Appling (100%), Red Faber (100%), Ted Lyons (100%), Ed Walsh (99%), Frank Thomas (85%), Charlie Comiskey (75%), Al Lopez (62%), Eddie Collins, (62%), Carlton Fisk (56%), Shoeless Joe Jackson (49%), George Davis (34%), Goose Gossage (34%), Harry Hooper (29%), Tim Raines (28%), Early Wynn (22%), Tony La Russa (20%), Dick Allen (19%), Al Simmons (19%), Tom Seaver (12%), Sammy Sosa (10%), Tony Phillips (10%), Ron Santo (4%), Kenny Lofton (4%), Roberto Alomar (3%), Clark Griffith (3%), Ken Boyer (3%), Ken Griffey, Jr. (1%), Red Ruffing (1%), Bobby Bonds (1%), Steve Carlton (1%), Manny Ramirez (1%), Dave Stieb (1%)
  • Retired: Jim Thome (115), Mark Buehrle (98), Larry Doby (95)
  • Active: Chris Sale (86), Bartolo Colon (86), Jose Quintana (55)

Most of Mark Buehrle and maybe a quarter of Chris Sale can’t hurt. It’s a little early to count on Quintana yet, but he’s well worth watching. The Chisox do, however, have a means to pick up some help. Doby and Minnie Miñoso (93 CHEWS+) are both near the borderline at their positions, and both will benefit if we choose to elect Negro Leagues players. Doby only a smidgen, but for Minnie, it’s likely three-quarters or more of a career. That won’t buy the team a boost in the standings, but it could keep a team or two at bay.

That’s a wrap for the second tier of our HoME standings. Next time, we check out the top-ten teams. There’s a lot of jockeying there for position beneath the undisputed holder of first place.

Advertisements

Discussion

3 thoughts on “Home Standings Part II: Finally, fully updated

  1. Picking nits, Zack is spelled Greinke.

    Can you add Mike Scioscia to the Angels hopefuls?

    A great read once again, many thanks!

    Posted by Ryan | May 24, 2017, 7:33 am
  2. A little surprising to see how high the ChiSox and Phils, 2 teams that have long periods of being wretched, are one your list. Sometimes you forget how good some of their individual players were.
    v

    Posted by verdun2 | May 24, 2017, 8:53 am
  3. Albert Pujols presents an interesting challenge to your approach (I had to go in the way back machine with Mr. Sherman to November 8, 2013) of awarding credit based on plate appearances rather than Performance. Using plate appearances and BBRef WAR, the Angels currently (through last night) represent 31% of PA but only 14% of WAR and he’s signed for 4 more years after 2017. I gave him another ~1700 PA and 5.6 WAR for his career which would leave him with 40% Angelic PA but a mere 19% WAR in Anaheim.

    I am not recommending in any way that you should change your approach as Performance based would be very hard but I think the PA approach will reward teams in the free agent period (Yanks, Sox) who like to acquire talent via free agency even if they don’t perform as well with their new teams as they did before acquisition.

    As Pujols only has been with two teams and played full seasons with each are you able to do a CHEWS+ (Rather than my WAR comparison?)

    Thanks for the updates!

    Posted by Mike | May 24, 2017, 9:28 am

Tell us what you think!

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Institutional History

%d bloggers like this: