Mid-Season Update, Battery

Welcome to the first of a three part series updating you on the HoME status of active players I’m charting. Today it’s the battery. On Monday you’ll see the infielders, and a week from today it’ll be the outfielders. For each player I’ll list his positional rank on my charts before the season began, his actual WAR through June 30, where he would move if it were his straight WAR that I use to rank (it’s close), and some comments on his eventual HoME chances. Enjoy!

Clayton Kershaw

Preseason Rank: 56

2017 WAR: 3.6

Current Rank: 51, passing Urban Shocker, Dennis Eckersley, Jim Bunning, Red Faber, and Dazzy Vance

HoME Status: Talk of Max Scherzer being the best pitcher in baseball is premature. Kershaw is the reigning champ, and for my money you have to take the belt away from the champ. It’s not like The Claw is anything other than great again this year, on his way to another 7-win season. What’s more, he’s about to put up his eighth straight 5-win campaign. And if we imagine a second half like the first for Kershaw, he’ll have the fourth most WAR of any pitcher in the last century in his first ten seasons, trailing only Tom Seaver, Roger Clemens, and Lefty Grove. Everyone on the career list he passes now is a HoMEr, so he’s already assured of going. Watch him pitch when you can. There are few you’ve seen before or will see again who are like him.

CC Sabathia

Preseason Rank: 57

2017 WAR: 1.4

Current Rank: 55, passing Urban Shocker

HoME Status: Sabathia is now ahead of 14 pitching HoMers, and he continues to add nice value over the last year and a half. He’s punched his ticket.

Zack Greinke

Preseason Rank: 77

2017 WAR: 2.7

Current Rank: passing Whitey Ford, George Uhle, Bucky Walters, Johan Santana, Sandy Koufax, Frank Tanana, and Kevin Appier

HoME Status: I tend to think of Greinke as a four-trick pony, which is a lot of tricks. First there’s the incredible 10.4 WAR season of 2009. Then there’s 9.9 WAR season of 2015. Add to those two a very impressive bat and consistency on the mound, and you have a HoMEr. For Eric, he was in before the season began. For me, it’s quite likely he’s in now, though he still trails a couple of non-HoMErs on my list. A second half like the first would push him past those guys, and make him a slam dunk for me.

Justin Verlander

Preseason Rank: 85

2017 WAR: 1.2

Current Rank: 80, passing Pud Galvin, Mickey Welch, Wilbur Cooper, Charlie Buffinton, and Mark Buehrle

HoME Status: Whether or not a Jarrod Dyson bunt is controversial doesn’t really matter around the HoME. What does matter is performance, and Verlander’s first half work elevated him past five guys even though that performance wasn’t anything special. It just goes to show how close some of these comparisons are. It’s a reminder that pulling straight from my list isn’t necessarily the right thing to do when electing to the HoME. Verlander has now passed his second HoMEr in Galvin, yet he’s not quite a sure thing at this moment. With 1.8 WAR in the second half, he’d get past Whitey Ford, Bucky Walters, and Sandy Koufax, as well as a few other excellent pitchers. Even if it’s not in 2017, he’s almost certain to get there.

Cole Hamels

Preseason Rank: 89

2017 WAR: 0.7

Current Rank: 87, passing Nap Rucker and Burleigh Grimes

HoME Status: Hamels is 33 this year and has made just five starts because of injury.  He has been building a quiet yet growing case for more than a decade. There’s little reason to believe that barring more injury woes he won’t continue to build. Even if he didn’t pitch again this year, two season of 3.0 WAR after this one puts him in a virtual tie with Early Wynn. There’s good reason to believe Hamels is a future HoMEr.

Felix Hernandez

Preseason Rank: 99

2017 WAR: 0.4

Current Rank: 98, passing Mickey Lolich

HoME Status: On one hand, King Felix is still just 31. On the other, he had a young arm that was worked hard, and he’s been hurt the last two years. It’s clear that he’s breaking down. We all do. But think about CC above. After he broke down, he still had some nice nights at the park. Hell, think about the last old car you drive. I bet you took it to the shop a couple of times, worried about putting so much money into it, and then were surprised by a sustained streak of reasonable performance. Such a streak can still certainly come from Felix. It’ll need to if he wants to get to the HoME.

Bartolo Colon

Preseason Rank: 123

2017 WAR: -2.3

Current Rank: 134, falling behind Jimmy Key, Doc White, George Mullin, Jack Stivetts, Dolf Luque, Dennis Martinez, Lon Warneke, Jamie Moyer, Silver King, and Carlos Zambrano

HoME Status: If this is the end of the road, and I think it is, Colon has had a nice career. A couple of nice careers, really. At one point, he put up -0.7 WAR over five seasons. Then he put up 9.7 in the next three. We’ll miss him, and we’ll never see him in the HoME.

Max Scherzer

Preseason Rank: 155

2017 WAR: 4.5

Current Rank: 131, passing Al Spalding, Jack Morris, Sam McDowell, Bill Dinneen, Bill Donovan, Dutch Leonard (the younger), Pink Hawley Claude Passeau, Red Lucas, Catfish Hunter, Jack Chesbro, Murry Dickson, Camilo Pascual, Mel Harder, Jim Whitney, Steve Rogers, Addie Joss, Bob Shawkey, Brade Radke, Herb Pennock, Vida Blue, Carlos Zambrano, Silver King, and Jamie Moyer

HoME Status: He’s not there yet, but with a second half like the first, he’d get past Goose Gossage, the lowest ranking HoME hurler. And if he replicated the first half for the next three half-seasons, he’d pass fifteen more HoMErs. Scherzer is 32, so it’s possible it could fall apart quickly. Plus, he’s a pitcher, so he could fall apart at any moment. On the other hand, he’s doing a great impression of the best pitcher in baseball right now. A gentle decline would get him in. A great second half and a fairly precipitous decline might get him in too. It’s pretty exciting to watch this guy work right now, and I expect it will be exciting inducting him into the HoME in a dozen or so years.

Jon Lester

Preseason Rank: 164

2017 WAR: 0.9

Current Rank: 157, passing Schoolboy Rowe, Hoyt Wilhelm, Mel Stottlemyre, Bob Welch, Fernando Valenzuela, Nig Cuppy, and Smoky Joe Wood

HoME Status: On one hand, he’s 33. On the other, he’s made at least 31 starts every year since 2008. Oh, and he overcame cancer, so I don’t put much past him. Repeating his first half and then following up with five 3-win seasons would get him really close. Like I say, I don’t put much past him.

Adam Wainwright

Preseason Rank: 165

2017 WAR: 0.4

Current Rank: 163, passing Schoolboy Rowe and Hoyt Wilhelm

HoME Status: Older and far less healthy than Lester, I don’t see him moving up the charts much more. He really hasn’t been a very good pitcher since 2014. But the guy can hit. He has 4 HR and 25 RBI in his last 100 trips to the plate.

Jake Peavy

Preseason Rank: 181

2017 WAR: 0.0

Current Rank: 181

HoME Status: Peavy isn’t retired yet, but he hasn’t pitched yet in 2017 to he could spend time with his kids after a divorce. There’s little reason to believe he’ll rebound to be a good pitcher again if he returns. His HoME case is virtually closed.

Joe Nathan

Preseason Rank: 189

2017 WAR: 0.0

Current Rank: 189

HoME Status: Nathan is likely done after requesting his release from the AAA contract he had with the Nationals. He may or may not be done in the game, but his HoME chances are zero.

John Lackey

Preseason Rank: 199

2017 WAR: -0.4

Current Rank: 199

HoME Status: He’s not going to make it. As it is, perhaps it’ll be a trick to retire inside the top-200.

Jered Weaver

Preseason Rank: 204

2017 WAR: -1.2

Current Rank: 209, falling behind Bruce Hurst, Sadie McMahon, Francisco Rodriguez, Rich Rhoden, and Chris Sale

HoME Status: No, never. And his miserable work (well, any work) with the Padres this year has taken him off the Angel Mount Rushmore.

Francisco Rodriguez

Preseason Rank: 205

2017 WAR: -1.1

Current Rank: 208, falling behind Bruce Hurst, Sadie McMahon, Rick Rhoden, and Chris Sale; passing Jered Weaver

HoME Status: The end can come very quickly for some closer. Perhaps the end is here for K-Rod. There was once some speculation that he would retire with the all-time saves record. In a way, he got close. He’s fourth, but he’s 215 behind Mariano. Dave Smith had 216 career saves. He’s 43^rd in history.

David Price

Preseason Rank: 225

2017 WAR: 0.3

Current Rank: 225, passing Chris Carpenter and falling behind Chris Sale

HoME Status: He seems generally to be righting the ship this season after early injury troubles. As for the HoME, there’s a lot of ground to make up. I’d settle for a strong post-season for a pitcher with a 2-8 career record and a 5.54 October ERA.

Chris Sale

Preseason Rank: 226

2017 WAR: 3.5

Current Rank: 204, passing David Price, Chris Carpenter, Bob Rush, Guy Hecker, Earl Whitehill, Charlie root, Rick Sutcliffe, Mort Cooper, Charlie Leibrandt, Rick Wise, Harry Howell, Paul Derringer, Deacon Phillipe, Burt Hooton, Jerry Reuss, Hooks Dauss, Doyle Alexander, Rick Rhoden, Sadie McMahon, Bruce Hurst, Francisco Rodriguez, Jered Weaver, and Bill Hutchinson.

HoME Status: If Max Scherzer weren’t the east coast’s answer to Clayton Kershaw, it would be Sale. He’s just so good now, and he’s only 28. A second half like the first would put him past 27 more guys, moving into 176^th place in history. It’s smart money to take the under on just about every pitcher. I’m rooting for him though.

Matt Cain

Preseason Rank: 229

2017 WAR: 0.3

Current Rank: 227, passing Danny Darwin and Billy Wagner

HoME Status: If you want to know what’s wrong with signing pitchers to long-term contracts, you’re looking at him. In the first year of a six-year $125.5 million contract, he finished a run of 28.1 WAR over six years. Since then, he’s been about a win below replacement. His ERA if 5+ for the third straight year, and the Giants will be very happy to give him $7.5 million this off-season to go away. He has no shot at the HoME.

Madison Bumgarner

Preseason Rank: 233

2017 WAR: 0.9

Current Rank: 228, Slim Sallee, Bob Ewing, Frank Killen, Danny Darwin, and Billy Wagner

HoME Status: Bumgarner was off to another great start before a sprain of his throwing shoulder knocked him out. Best case scenario, he’s back for the last two months of the season. Hopefully he’ll be healthy moving forward. And hopefully he won’t be a cautionary tale about betting on pitchers to produce HoME-worthy careers when they’re still just 27. If forced to bet, I’d bet against him at this point.

Johnny Cueto

Preseason Rank: 246

2017 WAR: 1.7

Current Rank: 238, passing Larry Dierker, Dave Foutz, Charlie Ferguson, Bobby Mathews, Harvey Haddix, Lee Smith, Rube Marquard, and Willis Hudlin

HoME Status: Well, Rube Marquard made it. Let’s see if the Giants can find someone to take him and the $92+ million he’s still owed.

James Shields

Preseason Rank: 266

2017 WAR: 0.5

Current Rank: 262, passing Mike Cuellar, Bruce Sutter, Ken Holtzman, and Bill Hands

HoME Status: Um, no.

Tim Lincecum

Preseason Rank: 275

2017 WAR: 0.0

Current Rank: 275

HoME Status: Lincecum is done. That’s good news since he’s lost nearly three WAR the last four seasons. The Freak was a superstar for two years when he won his Cy Youngs, good for two more, and that’s it.

Jake Arrieta

Preseason Rank: 291

2017 WAR: -0.3

Current Rank: 295, falling behind Paul Splittorff, Ron Reed, Craig Kimbrel, and Corey Kluber

HoME Status: Arrieta is 31, had a nice run of excellence from 2014-2015, owns a Cy Young for his troubles, and will probably get to 100 wins in his career. But guys who struggle for years and then peak seldom keep it up for long. He’s no HoMEr.

Craig Kimbrel

Preseason Rank: 294

2017 WAR: 2.3

Current Rank: 286, passing Ron Reed, Paul Splittorff, Jake Arrieta, Bob Veale, Candy Cummings, Mike Will, Jon Lieber, and Jim Devlin

HoME Status: Well, Kimbrel is back. On the basis of a career high swinging strike percentage and a career low ball in play percentage and contact rate, the AL All-Stars will have a lockdown guy in the ninth should they choose to use Kimbrel in that role. Closers basically don’t get into the HoME due to low inning totals keeping their value down. Kimbrel will be no exception, but he’s certainly fun to watch.

Corey Kluber

Preseason Rank: 296

2017 WAR: 2.9

Current Rank: 281, passing Red Ames, Craig Kimbrel, Ron Reed, Paul Splittorff, Jake Arrieta, Bob Veale, Candy Cummings, Mike Witt, Jon Lieber, Jim Devlin, Red Donahue, Mike Flanagan, J.R. Richard, Matt Kilroy, and Spud Chandler

HoME Status: He didn’t pitch 200 innings for the first time until he was 28. Unless he learns a knuckler, he has no chance.

Huston Street

Preseason Rank: 297

2017 WAR: 0.1

Current Rank: 297

HoME Status: It’s kind of cute that he’s even on the list.

Joe Mauer

Preseason Rank: 14

2017 WAR: 1.0

Current Rank: 14

HoME Status: While the best of Mauer is gone and isn’t returning, he’s long been a HoMEr. And with a second half just a smidge better than his first, he’ll get past Wally Schang.

Russell Martin

Preseason Rank: 24

2017 WAR: 1.0

Current Rank: 22, passing Jason Kendall and HoMEr Bill Freehan

HoME Status: There’s no position more difficult to judge than catcher. From framing, to handling a staff, to DRA not really improving on rfield, to countless other things, I just don’t know how much to trust my own numbers. But what else do I have to trust? Martin has just passed HoMEr Bill Freehan on my list. Of course, there are still four catchers ahead of Freehan and out of the HoME, as I trust the Tiger’s defensive reputation more than I do for most. But I don’t know that I’m being fair. I don’t know if I’m right about any of these rankings. Russell Martin in the HoME doesn’t feel quite right, but it’s certainly possible.

Buster Posey

Preseason Rank: 30

2017 WAR: 2.9

Current Rank: 28, passing Deacon McGuire and Darrell Porter

HoME Status: Now Posey feels right in the HoME. He’s already the 11^th best catcher ever based on BBREF’s rbat, moving past the likes of Ted Simmons, Carlton Fisk, and Gary Carter this year. He’s 30, relatively close, and still excellent. He can be moved out from behind the plate when necessary and still have a bat that plays. He still has a bit of work to do, but I bet he’ll get there.

Yadier Molina

Preseason Rank: 34

2017 WAR: 0.9

Current Rank: 33, passing Sherm Lollar

HoME Status: In the mind of many Cardinals fans, Yadi is already a sure thing. For the Hall, maybe, not for the HoME. In some ways I think of him like Bill Mazeroski or Omar Vizquel. Then again, he’s better than those guys. But he really isn’t a hitter. And I’m not certain his overall defense is what some make it out to be. When I say that I’m not sure, I don’t mean it as a critique. I’m just not sure. Catcher defense is so hard. If you told me Molina and Martin should be flipped, I couldn’t put up a very good argument otherwise.

Victor Martinez

Preseason Rank: 43

2017 WAR: 0.0

Current Rank: 43

HoME Status: He’s not going, though with five All-Star Games has had a very nice career. Here’s hoping his health issues allow him to bow out gracefully and lead a happy and healthy existence for the next 50+ years.

Brian McCann

Preseason Rank: 46

2017 WAR: 1.2

Current Rank: 46

HoME Status: McCann 42 doubles in 2008, 35 the next year, 25 the year after that, and 19 in 2011. He hasn’t topped 15 since. So far this year he has 8. That’s weird. He’s a decent player who’s never getting to the HoME.

A.J. Pierzynski

Preseason Rank: 54

2017 WAR: 0.0

Current Rank: 54

HoME Status: It’s sad to see that A.J. is done. Unless you played against him.

The infield is coming on Monday.

Miller