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2018 Hall of Fame Election, BBWAA, Hall Logic, Uncategorized

Grading the BBWAA Ballots, #186-195

So we’re just about tere. This is the last Thursday update before the ballot reveal on the 24th! One thing I think that’s been under-discussed is the massive, massive jump for Vlad Guerrero. I believe Roberto Alomar’s jump from 73.7% in 2010 to 90.0% in 2011 represents the biggest total for a player on the ballot a second time or later. Vlad is coming from 71.7% last year and seems like his final number will be closer to 98% than 90%. So do you want to know the ballot grades of the ten writers who haven’t voted for Vlad?

Mark Bradley: 95
Garry Brown: 75
Josh Dubow: 95
Jimmy Golen: -35
Bill Livingston: -95
Tony Massarotti: 0
Phil Miller: 95
Rob Parker: 10
John Perrotto: 65
Bob Smizik: 15

An interesting group of some of the best and some of the worst ballots of the year. I’ll let you use your judgment as to why they’ve held firm.

Rating system and 1-4, 5-7, 8-9, 10, 11-14, 15, 16-17, 18-25, 26-32, 33, 34-39, 40-46, 47-51, 52-54, 55-66, 67-81, 82-91, 92-100, 101-105, 106-118, 119-136, 137-146, 147-155, 156-163, 164-168, 169, 170-175, 176-179, 180-182, 183, 184-185

The Ballots

Mike Berardino: 90

  • Vlad, Andruw, Chipper, Edgar, Mussina, Rolen, Schilling, Thome, and Walker. That’s 90 without PED guys!
  • And Wagner keeps him at 90. Why, why, why not Johan? I really want a non-PED guy to reach 100.
  • Brandon Warne, @Brandon_Warne, the host who I like quite a bit and doesn’t have a vote, chose Bonds, Clemens, Vlad, Chipper, Edgar, Mussina, Rolen, Schilling, Thome, and Walker. That’s 100. Give him a vote! Hoffman would get his vote if there were space. He would also want to consider Andruw, Kent, McGriff, Manny, Johan, Sheffield, Sosa, and Wagner too. Can we give him two votes?
  • Berardino says he finds things like the project I’m working on “amusing”. He’s far too kind. I know I’m a bit of an ass. Good for him for taking the high road.
  • Lots of mentions of Ryan and the Tracker on this podcast. Nice!
  • Berardino, you may remember, became infamous for not voting for Unit or Pedro a few years ago. He wasn’t being a jerk. He was being strategic, he explains. He implies that he knew they were getting in without his vote. Because of the Tracker!
  • Vlad is an add this year. While he discusses Vlad, I don’t think he really explains why this year but not last. He compares Vlad’s plate coverage to that of Yogi Berra or Manny Sanguillen. Cool comparison!
  • He waited until the last moment to vote, presumably to see how things were going on the Tracker.
  • He has tried to get away from counting stats, move to rate stats, and consider peak years on his recent ballots.
  • He says that the character clause factors in for him, though not in the way the player treats the media.
  • With three spots remaining on his ballot, he was still considering three players – Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner, and Andruw Jones. He chose to vote for Wagner and Jones, Jones in particular while considering the 5% needed to stay on the ballot.
  • He chose Wagner, an add this year, over Hoffman strategically, thinking Hoffman was going to make it and that Wagner could fall off the ballot without his vote. I dislike this position. I’m not 100% sure it holds water. Berardino is a very close follower of the Tracker. I don’t think there was ever a time this year when it seemed like Wagner was about to fall off. Maybe I’m wrong. The rest of what he says makes sense, so I’ll assume I’m wrong here.
  • He admires Hoffman, and he appreciates the way he reacted to the 1998 World Series struggle.
  • He said he loved watching Omar Vizquel play, and he wished his memory of Vizquel’s hitting was a little incorrect. Basically, it isn’t.

Jeff Blair: 15

  • Bonds, Clemens, Vlad, Chipper, Manny, and Walker. That’s 60.
  • Looks good, but the four open spots mean he drops to 20.
  • The ballot was shared on a radio show I can’t access. Let’s make it 15.

Earl Bloom: 55

  • Vlad, Andruw, Chipper, Edgar, Mussina, Thome, and Walker get him to 70.
  • Hoffman and McGriff keep him there.
  • Vizquel drops him to 60.
  • And a lack of an explanation means he falls to 55.

Shi Davidi: 65

  • Bonds, Clemens, Vlad, Chipper, Edgar, Mussina, Thome, and Walker make 80.
  • There’s no change with Hoffman and McGriff.
  • He’s added Edgar and McGriff while dropping Kent and Schilling.
  • He writes that he did something he swore he’d never do – removing a player from his ballot who he previously supported. Since he’s writing this in the context of strategic voting, I won’t ding him for what seems to be a crazy position of refusing to change one’s mind.
  • For strategic voting reasons he dropped Kent and Schilling while adding Edgar and McGriff. Whether or not you advocate for strategic voting aside, what in the world is the strategy of dropping Schilling for McGriff? Or even Kent for McGriff? What did he hope to accomplish? He doesn’t explain in his post. I listened to his radio appearance too. He says he can go back to the two he dropped. I guess he explained that in his post too. But all I can think is, “Yeah, so?” He drops 5 to 75.
  • He says he follows the Tracker and studies JAWS to help make decisions. Okay, we can go back to 80.
  • However, he says that Edgar is amazing because he reaches his JAWS number without adding any value on defense. There are one big problem with that statement though. JAWS is WAR-based, and Davidi isn’t taking into account its positional component, one that costs Edgar 128 runs in his WAR calculation. Back to 75.
  • He either implies that Fred McGriff didn’t use steroids, or he is happy to vote for someone whose play was simply inferior. Either way, that’s 10 points, dropping him to 65.

John Harper: 55

  • Vlad, Chipper, Kent, Edgar, Mussina, Schilling, and Thome get him to 70.
  • The relievers keep him there.
  • Vizquel drops him to 60.
  • And a lack of ballot explanation that I can see means he falls to 55.

Kevin Kernan: 75

  • Bonds, Clemens, Vlad, Chipper, Edgar, Schilling, Thome, and Walker start him at 80.
  • That’s where he stays with Hoffman and McGriff.
  • There’s no explanation on Instrgram, so he’s down to 75.

Jack Magruder: 75

  • Bonds, Clemens, Vlad, Chipper, Manny, Sheffield, Thome, and Walker get him to 90.
  • The open space drops him to 80.
  • Twitter is hard. Too many people are unkind. Not enough people are thoughtful, even when they have characters to spare. And I very much appreciate when voters share their ballots with us. However, I’m quite bothered when they won’t reply to anyone on Twitter. As you can imagine, lots of people asked about Edgar. I’d like to hear. He’s down 5 to 75.

Tony Massarotti: 0

  • This ballot was on the radio on December 28. Somehow, I missed it.
  • Bonds, Clemens, Chipper, Edgar, and Manny. That’s it. He’s at 50.
  • Those five open spots means all 50 points come off the board, and he falls to 0.
  • I’ve listened to Tony Maz a lot on the radio over the years. His ballot grade is happy I didn’t hear this one. He’ll stay at his goose egg.

Anthony McCarron: 85

  • Bonds, Clemens, Vlad, Chipper, Kent, Edgar, Mussina, Schilling, and Thome. That’s 90.
  • His Hoffman add keeps him at 90.
  • He was on television with Harper. Down to 85.

Dave Perkins: 50

  • Bonds, Clemens, Vlad, Chipper, Edgar, Thome, and Walker get him to 70.
  • Vizquel makes 60.
  • And the two open spaces make 40.
  • He says he voted for seven guys. Then he counts. And he still says it’s seven.
  • He says he voted for Edgar because of David Ortiz talk. Well, at least he knows which one was better.
  • He says that the negative part of the integrity/sportsmanship/character clause of the Hall’s fifth rule isn’t enough to trump the play of Bonds and Clemens on the field. I really like that he’s thought about this. Give him 5 to 45.
  • He called the Hall after the Morgan letter to ask what the Hall’s position was. And then he went on to discuss steroid enablers. Add 5 more to 50.

Tom Verducci: 70

  • Vlad, Chipper, Kent, Edgar, Mussina, Schilling, and Thome make 80.
  • That’s where he stays with Hoffman and McGriff.
  • The empty spot drops him to 70.
  • And I won’t put up with Chris Russo or Bob Costas to ever listen to the MLB Hall Roundtable again. Sorry, Brian Kenny. Still, I know Verducci explains. He stays at 70.

The Scores

Peter Barzilai: 100
Ryan Fagan: 100
Mark Feinsand: 100
Mark Hale: 100
Sam Mellinger: 100
Mark Newman: 100
Joe Posnanski: 100
Scott Priestle: 100
C. Trent Rosecrans: 100
Michael Silverman: 100
Mike Bass: 95
Erik Boland: 95
Mark Bradley: 95
Josh Dubow: 95
Jeff Fletcher: 95
Janie McCauley: 95
Phil Miller: 95
J.P. Morosi: 95
Steve Politi: 95
TR Sullivan: 95
Dom Amore: 90
Anthony Andro: 90
Mike Berardino: 90
Tim Booth: 90
Ryan Divish: 90
Derrick Goold: 90
Patrick Graham: 90
Evan Grant: 90
Mike Harrington: 90
Mike Imrem: 90
Bob Sanvarese: 90
Mike Vaccaro: 90
Anonymous #4: 85
Peter Abraham: 85
David Ammenheuser: 85
Chris Bahr: 85
Peter Botte: 85
Dave Campbell: 85
Pat Caputo: 85
Marc Carig: 85
Jay Cohen: 85
Brian Costello: 85
Tim Cowlishaw: 85
Tom D’Angelo: 85
Chris De Luca: 85
Tom Dienhart: 85
Dan Hayes: 85
Bob Herzog: 85
Garry D. Howard: 85
Bob Klapisch: 85
Roch Kubatko: 85
Rob Maaddi: 85
David Maril: 85
Anthony McCarron: 85
Joe McDonald: 85
Nick Pietruszkiewicz: 85
Rick Plumlee: 85
Brendan Prunty: 85
Luis Rangel: 85
Tim Reynolds: 85
John Romano: 85
Ken Rosenthal: 85
Jayson Stark: 85
Bernie Wilson: 85
Jack Curry: 80
Lynn Henning: 80
Scott Lauber: 80
Ian O’Connor: 80
Steve Popper: 80
Jeff Wilson: 80
Amalie Benjamin: 75
Steve Buckley: 75
Larry Brooks: 75
Garry Brown: 75
Joe Haakenson: 75
Kevin Kernan: 75
Joseph Liao: 75
Jack Magruder: 75
Sean McAdam: 75
Roger Mooney: 75
Aurelio Moreno: 75
Mike Puma: 75
Tracy Ringolsby: 75
Mark Saxson: 75
Mike Shalin: 75
Barry Bloom: 70
Kevin Cooney: 70
Richard Justice: 70
Tim Kawakami: 70
Katsushi Nagao: 70
Carl Steward: 70
Kirk Wessler: 70
Anonymous #3: 65
Kirby Arnold: 65
Filip Bondy: 65
Roberto Colon: 65
Greg Cote: 65
Shi Davidi: 65
Peter Gammons: 65
David Lennon: 65
John McGrath: 65
Bruce Miles: 65
Kevin Modesti: 65
Mike Nadel: 70
Ross Newhan: 65
John Perrotto: 65
Dave Reynolds: 65
Anthony Rieber: 65
Adam Rubin: 65
Henry Schulman: 65
John Shea: 65
Claire Smith: 65
Willie Smith: 65
Paul White: 65
George Willis: 65
Nick Cafardo: 60
Barry Rozner: 60
John Tomase: 60
Earl Bloom: 55
Mark Faller: 55
John Harper: 55
Chuck Johnson: 55
Jack McCaffery: 55
Mike Peticca: 55
Jeff Jacobs: 50
Dave Perkins: 50
Anonymous #1: 45
Dave Albee: 45
Jaime Aron: 45
Tony DeMarco: 45
John Eradi: 45
Steven Gietschier: 45
Steve Goldman: 45
Roger Rubin: 45
Arnie Stapleton: 45
Clark Spencer: 40
Don Burke: 35
Jay Greenberg: 35
Bob Hohler: 35
Michael Knisley: 35
Sadiel Lebron: 35
Jeff Peek: 35
Steve Wine: 35
Jay Dunn: 30
Bob Ryan: 30
Rick Telander: 30
Andrew Call: 25
Carter Gaddis: 25
Dan Gelston: 25
Thom Loverro: 25
Steve Simmons: 20
Andrew Baggarly: 15
Jeff Blair: 15
Sam Charchidi: 15
Jon Heyman: 15
Bernie Lincicome: 15
Bob Smizik: 15
Rick Morrissey: 10
Rob Parker: 10
Mel Antonen: 5
Rob Biertempfel: 5
Karen Guregian: 5
Mark Herrmann: 5
Marc Katz: 5
Bill Plunkett: 5
Bill Ballou: 0
Art Davidson: 0
Tony Massarotti: 0
Bob Sherwin: 0
Scott Gregor: -5
Jose de Jesus Ortiz: -5
John Delcos: -10
Dejan Kovacevic: -10
Chris Assenheimer: -15
David Borges: -15
Glenn Schwarz: -15
Terrence Moore: -25
Juan Vené: -25
Anonymous #2: -35
Jimmy Golen: -35
Steve Marcus: -35
Jim Street: -45
Dan Shaughnessy: -55
Murray Chass: -70
Mark Purdy: -75
Bill Livingston: -95

The System

  • You get 10 points for every player you select who I think has a reasonable case for the Hall. Alphabetically that means 10 points for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Vladimir Guerrero, Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Jeff Kent, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Manny Ramirez, Scott Rolen, Johan Santana, Curt Schilling, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa, Jim Thome, or Larry Walker. That’s 16 guys to choose from.
  • You get 0 points for either Trevor Hoffman or Billy Wagner. Frequent readers will be surprised and most sabermetric thinkers will disagree with this stance since the value these pitchers created during their careers is about on par with John Tudor or Burt Hooton. However, as I judge these ballots, I want to give every chance that I could be wrong.
  • That’s why it’s also 0 points for Johnny Damon (I rank him 33rd in CF) or Fred McGriff (40th at 1B). For me, these are easy “no” votes, but I do respect the big Hall voter. And I don’t think you should have to vote for the ten best, just ten deserving. If I do a ton of squinting, I could get Damon in. McGriff, not so much. So…
  • You lose 10 points if you justify your McGriff vote by saying he was clean.
  • You also lose 10 if you vote for McGriff but not Thome, a player pretty much with the exact same case as McGriff, only a lot better.
  • You also lose 10 points for voting for anyone else on the ballot.
  • You lose 10 points for every empty space on your ballot. Even if you’re an anti-steroid voter, you can still fill your ballot with guys on the first list.
  • You lose 10 points for voting for Bonds and not Clemens, or vice versa.
  • You lose 10 points for talking about character, morality, or Joe Morgan (if you do so in a positive way).
  • You lose 10 points for voting for other steroid guys, but not Clemens or Bonds.
  • You lose 5 points for not explaining your ballot.
  • You lose 5 points for each judgment of the morality of specific players.
  • You lose 5 points for mentioning Coors Field as an argument against Larry Walker.
  • You lose 5 points for any comparison between Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Smith.
  • You lose 5 points for a vote against Edgar Martinez because he was a DH.
  • You lose 5 points for any other case of ridiculous logic.
  • You lose 5 more points if you send in a blank protest ballot.
  • You lose 5 points if you vote for Pete Rose. Just stop it!
  • You gain 5 points for saying the Hall should allow writers to vote for more than ten guys (a stance I don’t agree with) or for saying the Hall should make all ballots public (one I agree with).
  • You max out at 100 points.
  • Your score can dip as low as it dips.
  • I will edit this post as the voting season unfolds and I improve my method.

Miller

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