Edwin Encarnacion

The Hall of Miller and Eric 2020 Update: Third Base

The action in baseball is at third base. Hall watchers (and HoME watchers!) have plenty of guys to home in on at various points in their journey—young veterans, established stars, a few guys walking up the driveway of immortality, and one standing on its welcome mat. Metaphorically speaking that is. I doubt the Hall of Fame has a welcome mat, at least not the kind at any of our front doors. Maybe more like a grand-entrance floor covering like the Warthog Elite, which appears to come with fashion pumps. Few things say haute couture like a Warthog entry rug. The Hall of Miller and Eric does not have any floor coverings for the simple reason because our floors are hypothetical. I suppose if we could have a hypothetical flooring of our choice, we’d go for either Astroturf or flooring made of 1985 Topps commons.

For earlier posts in this series, enjoy here: [1B], [2B]

Nolan Arenado

2020 BBREF WAR: 1.4
CHEWS+: 33^rd
MAPES+: 38^th

As I’ve mentioned previously, Arenado and Paul Waner share my birthday. Or vise versa. Pretty good core the Aries 16ers if you ask me. The year 2020 was an off year for pretty much everyone in the world, except maybe Joe Biden, Arenado included. I’ve got him at a prorated to three wins above replacement. The main culprit: his bat and injury. He played only 48 games, sputtering to an 84 OPS+. He drew fewer walks and ended up with an anemic 0.90 isolated power. Youch. Fortunately his defense remains elite so that he still provides above-average value over all. The man’s up to 87 CHEWS+, good for thirty-third all time at third base. A return to his established six-WAR level would put him on the front porch of destiny, but he’s about to turn thirty. If he takes the Longoria route, he’ll need about seven or eight years of average play to get over the threshold. -Eric

Alex Bregman

2020 BBREF WAR: 0.8
CHEWS+:  99^th
MAPES+:  97^th

As it was for so many, 2020 was a bit of a lost season for Bregman. He started a little cold, began heating up, missed about a third of the season with a hamstring injury, and then hit a miserable .178/.315/.222 in the 14 games after returning. I want to give Bregman a pass for 2020. I’m sure we all do. However, he won’t get his age-26 season back. Of Hall of Fame third basemen, only Brooks Robinson, Jimmy Collins, and Edgar Martinez posted less than 3 WAR when they were 26. It was only Edgar who was unproductive as Bregman was this year. I’m not arguing there’s necessarily reason to worry about his future, but there is reason to worry a bit about his past. That’s something we’ve never been able to say about Alex Bregman. Shh, I think he’ll recover quite well -Miller

Kris Bryant

2020 BBREF WAR: 0.3
CHEWS+:  84^th
MAPES+: 77^th

As a southern friend of mine would put, in 2020, Kris Bryant was suckin’ hind titty. He didn’t hit, and he had terrible injury luck, missing time due to trouble with his obliques, his wrist, his elbow, and his finger. In a full-length season, Bryant might have had time enough to get healthy and turn things around so that instead of a 73 OPS+, he might have gotten back up close to 100. But that’s the cruelty of a sixty-game slate. After starting his career with three consecutive seasons that my calculations characterize as in the six/seven WAR range, he’s compiled about seven wins in the last four years. Has he already peaked? If so, he’s not going to sniff immortality. If not, or if he at least has a gear in between “Awesome” and “Hind Titty,” he might yet find himself among the top forty third basemen ever. -Eric

Matt Carpenter

2020 BBREF WAR: -0.1
CHEWS+: 80^th
MAPES+: 86^th

The end appears neigh for Matt Carpenter. Over time he’s transformed from a 120–130 OPS+ doubles machine into Rob Deer Lite. Why lite? Over his last 179 games, he has mastered the low-batting-average and respectable-OBP parts of Deer’s game but not the thirty-homer power. His 89 OPS+ since the start of 2019 might keep him in the league as a backup catcher or utility man. Probably won’t as a corner guy. -Eric

Matt Chapman

2020 BBREF WAR: 1.0
CHEWS+: 106^th
MAPES+: 108^th

Some things happened to Matt Chapman in 2020, a couple good and a lot quite bad. He slightly increased his exit velocity, and he moved from a pedestrian to an impressive launch angle. In fact, no hitter in the majors bested him in both exit velocity and launch angle. Now to the bad, and it’s quite bad because it seems intentional. Between 2019 and 2020, Chapman’s walk rate dropped from 10.9% to 5.3% and his strikeout rate jumped from 21.9% to 35.5. Perhaps you’re thinking that if he can decide to swing the bat differently, he can just flip the switch to the more productive hitter he was in years past. And perhaps you’re right. Or not. And that’s the worry. He’ll be just 28 next year, so there’s plenty of time to turn things around at the plate. In the field, however, we can’t expect this outstanding defensive third baseman to become more athletic as he ages. As a Matt Chapman fan, I’m more than a little worried. -Miller

Josh Donaldson

2020 BBREF WAR: 0.4
CHEWS+: 34^th
MAPES+: 31^st

Despite not really getting started until he was 27, Josh Donaldson almost got there. He almost became a HoMEr. It seems, however, that Father Time’s undefeated streak will continue. In 2017, Donaldson was mostly healthy. In 2018, he was mostly injured. Last season he put on the uniform 155 times and played almost like vintage Donaldson. But this year he missed a month with a calf strain. And next year he’ll be 35. He’s not done, but he’s not not done either. So how close did he come to HoME immortality? To inch past Heinie Groh, the lowest ranked third sacker in the HoME, he’d need just one season of 6.7 WAR, something he’s done three times. Yeah, maybe I’m counting him out prematurely. Maybe I’m right, or maybe I’m making the same mistake the A’s almost made close to a decade ago. -Miller

Edwin Encarnacion

2020 BBREF WAR: -0.5
CHEWS+: 73^rd
MAPES+: 87^th

See, the problem for EE looks like this. Designated hitters are supposed to hit. When Encarnacion fails to do so, like in 2020, he instead becomes the designated out maker. Dude struck out a lot in 2020, walked less than usual, and hit .157. Eeooooowww. He did manage a 30+ homer pace, so some hope remains entering his age-38 season. That is, if any club wants to pay the free agent to find out how much of that hope remains. As a guy who doesn’t really play the field anymore, and with some good reason, he may have trouble finding an organization willing to shorten its bench by carrying a full-time DH. Given also how mercilessly teams will likely cut payroll this offseason (facing a very uncertain 2021), he may not have many suitors. In terms of his place in history, he’s as good a candidate now for the Hall as Terry Pendleton or Richie Hebner. -Eric

Todd Frazier

2020 BBREF WAR: 0.1
CHEWS+: 102^nd
MAPES+: 104^th

There’s nothing wrong with being a journeyman, at least that’s what Frazier thinks. And his $8 million per over the last four years he’s been journeying suggests that he’s right. Since his career has followed a pretty normal aging curve over the last four years, teams might see 2021 as his first step out the door. Sure, sure, the entire Frazier clan is hoping he cracks into the top-100 in MAPES and CHEWS. If he doesn’t, he can revel in the fact that folks like Mike Lowell and Howard Johnson didn’t either. -Miller

Evan Longoria

2020 BBREF WAR: 0.5
CHEWS+: 24^th
MAPES+: 26^th

Five years ago, Evan Longoria wrapped up his age-thirty season. Thirty-six homers, a 127 OPS+, forty-one doubles. Not bad. He sat a little higher than where Nolan Arenado sits now and seemed like a sure thing. Since then has only inched his way up the third-base rankings thanks to seasons totaling about seven WAR. What happened? Turn on the way-back machine and dial it to 2012. He missed about half the year with injuries. Look, I don’t remember what they were, but they appear to have changed his offensive capabilities. Through 2012, ages 22–26, Longoria slashed 276/361/516 for a 137 OPS+. He struck out in twenty-three percent of his at-bats, walked eleven percent of the time, and sported a 240 ISO. In 2013, he appeared to have recovered from his injuries and played well, but his 133 OPS+, occurring at the moment that hitters traditionally peak actually came in below his career performance. But it’s just one year. However, some fundamentals in his game were subtly changing for the worse. He struck out about thirteen percent more often than he had, walked about ten percent less often, and his ISO came down just a bit to 229. En toto, he lost seven points of batting average, eighteen points of OBP, and eighteen points of slugging. AND THEN in 2014, he turned into a clearly lesser hitter. From 2014–2016, he averaged a 116 OPS+ from a 265/322/454 slash line. His ISO tumbled to 189. He still K’ed twenty-two percent of the time, but now he walked only seven percent of the time. But as we noted, his age-30 season looked pretty good and was his best in three years. Then his performance dropped again. From thirty-one to thirty-four, in 1906 plate appearances, he managed a 97 OPS+ and a net of -7 batting runs. Longo can stay in the league as roughly average hitter with a good glove at the hot corner, but he hasn’t played like a great of the game in quite some time. The man who once seemed like a shoe-in remains beneath the mathematical in/out line, though within the zone of players we might elect. I doubt he’s got another All-Star year in him, so he’s going to have to keep chipping away, centimeter by centimeter. He needs two years of dead-average play or three-to-four years of 1.0 WAR play to break the tape. -Eric

Manny Machado

2020 BBREF WAR: 2.8
CHEWS+: 43^rd
MAPES+: 44^th

Some might suggest that Machado peaked early. After all, he hasn’t reached the heights of his run from ages 22-23 since. And even though he’ll be just 28 next year, he seems more like a star than a super-duper star. Not so fast, Machado haters. In 2020, he posted the best walk rate, the best strikeout rate, and the best isolated slugging of his career. For what it’s worth, he also managed his best exit velocity, best barrel percentage, and best speed score (as calculated by Fangraphs) of his career. I say Machado still has some MVP-type seasons in him. And the truth is, they just don’t make many third basemen like Machado. Sure, Brett, Santo and Mathews were greater when they were young. But Schmidt wasn’t, nor has any other denizen of the hot corner been in over a century. A mere two seasons of 8 WAR puts Machado in a place where it’s easy to elect him to the HoME. Two or three off-seasons from now, I suspect we’ll say Machado has crossed that line. And if I’m wrong, he’ll be just 31 the next year. -Miller

Jose Ramirez

2020 BBREF WAR: 2.2
CHEWS+: 86^th
MAPES+: 79^th

Astoundingly, Ramirez is just going into his age-twenty-eight season. That means he has plenty of time to burnish his credentials. His first three years looked like the record of a born utility man, but since then, he’s averaged All-Star-level play. Which isn’t to say that he hasn’t had some bumps. In 2019 he fell from MVP candidate to mere regular, but in 2020 he came back a bit and played at roughly a five-WAR pace. His bat came back about two-thirds of the way, but he suffered a crappy year with the glove, going into the negatives in Rfield for the first time. He and Kris Bryant are essentially tied in my rankings and present a curious comparison. Bryant, as we noted above, started his career like a house on fire and has since plummeted to earth. Ramirez did the opposite. Actually the odds of either of them making a run at the Hall of Miller and Eric seem quite remote. Why? Because the odds of anyone becoming one of the best 20 or so players at his position in MLB history is remote. Knowing nothing about any player, you’d always take the under on that bet. Still, doesn’t it seem like Ramirez has built some momentum while Bryant has squandered it? With the perspicacity you’ve come to expect from us here at the Hall of Miller and Eric, my analysis is…we’ll see. -Eric

Anthony Rendon

2020 BBREF WAR: 1.8
CHEWS+: 64^th
MAPES+: 64^th

As with Albert Pujols, Justin Upton, and, truth be told, Shohei Ohtani before Rendon, Arte Moreno’s plan to support Mike Trout in the lineup with other great hitters didn’t quite go as planned. Don’t get me wrong, Rendon was good in 2020, perhaps even very good. But the dude is signed for the next six years at nearly $219 million. Rendon didn’t play a single game for the Angels in his 20s. And lemme drop a truth bomb here. He never will. Let’s say Rendon finishes his Angel contract with seasons of 4.0, 3.5, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, and 3.0 WAR. I think that would be pushing it a a good deal, though it’s certainly possible. Maybe he’d do a little better on the front of it and a little worse on the back, but let’s go with those numbers. At that point, he’d be 37 and in league with the likes of Tim Wallach and Pie Traynor. Even if short of the HoME, that’s a career to be proud of. -Miller

Pablo Sandoval

2020 BBREF WAR: -0.6
CHEWS+: 106^th
MAPES+: 113^th

The Panda hasn’t had a seasonal OBP above .320 since Joe Biden was the Vice President. In fact, he’s had only two OBPs above .300 since then. Sandoval is a free agent, and unless he is willing to play for the league minimum on a non-guaranteed deal, I don’t see why any team would bother with him. Actually, I wouldn’t roster him no matter what he might sign for. Thirty-four-year-old third basemen who literally hit their weight don’t fill me with confidence. Other than the youngster, Matt Chapman, Pablo Sandoval ranks lower for me than every active third baseman whose career trajectory we currently follow. -Eric

Kyle Seager

2020 BBREF WAR: 0.6
CHEWS+: 54^th
MAPES+: 51^st

Corey’s big brother has put together a nice, solid career for himself. He’ll be 33 next year and has a reasonable enough option the following year. It would be something if he played out his contract and rode off into the sunset as a career Mariner. He was wonderfully healthy and just as consistent every year until he turned 30. That was his first down year. The next season, he was injured for the first time in his career. He bounced back some in 2020 and recorded the best walk and strikeout rates of his career. Hmm, maybe he has more years in him than what’s remaining on his contract. I think it’s kind of neat that the guy who sort of followed Edgar is next to the guy who absolutely followed Brooks, Doug DeCinces, on my third base list. Whatever Seager does, I hope it’s as a Mariner. -Miller

Justin Turner

2020 BBREF WAR: 1.3
CHEWS+: 58^th
MAPES+: 59^th

Players around the league ought to hang this late-blossoming third basemen with the sobriquet “Super Spreader.” And not because he hits to all fields. Hypothetically, if Mookie Betts caught COVID from Turner, and his career ended as a result, doesn’t Turner feel at least a little remorse. Or maybe a ton? We’re not talking about herpes cold sores here. Turner deals in a devil’s wager on death when passes on this socially transmitted disease. There’s. Just. No. Words. Actually, there are two words: selfish and stupid. Oh, you wanted to know about his 2020 season? It was OK. He went from an All-Star-level performer at age thirty-four to about a three-win player at thirty-five. That doesn’t feel like a cliff season, it feels like aging and some nagging injuries. His eye? Sharp as ever. The hits dropped in for him. His ISO tumbled forty to sixty points over his peak years. Going into his age-thirty-six season, if he looks over his shoulder, he might find Father Time gaining on him. Until then, he slides on by the sixtieth spot in my rankings and sort of resembles Denny Lyons from the old American Association or Bill Joyce from the 1890s National League. -Eric

Ryan Zimmerman

2020 BBERF WAR: 0.0
CHEWS+: 51^st
MAPES+: 56^th

Though Zimmerman didn’t play in 2020, I wanted to include him here just to contrast him with Turner. See, Zimmerman opted out of what might have been his last chance at big league at-bats, and he gave away $2 in the process. In his position, I must admit that I don’t know what I would have done. Much respect to him for his choice. -Miller

2019 HoME Update, Active Third Basemen

Third base is home to some impressive young talent, some so-so veterans, and a pleasantly plump Panda. The really exciting part of this base, obviously, is the young talent MLB has right now. Alex Bregman is a stud. There’s real reason to love Matt Chapman. Manny Machado was the (a) stud from last off-season, and Anthony Rendon looks to be the same this winter. Jose Ramirez still has hope of greatness. And both Nolan Arenado and Kris Bryant steadily climb this chart, albeit at different paces.

This is our fourth installment in the series. Please take a look at the others.

[Catcher], [First Base], [Second Base]

Evan Longoria

2019 BBREF WAR:
2.4

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 25
Ahead of Bob Elliott, Matt Williams, and Robin Ventura
Trailing Sal Bando, Ron Cey, and Heinie Groh

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019: 26
Ahead of Bob Elliott, Toby Harrah, and Bill Bradley
Trailing Ron Cey, Heinie Groh, and Sal Bando

Current career trajectory per Eric:
Longo has settled in as a two-three win regular. His defense took a tumble in his late twenties from top notch to good and in his early thirties to simply above average. At the same time his bat went from special to above average to average. He seems to be hanging on to what skills he has left, and while he’s longer a core player, he’s a great sidepiece to have around. As long as he’s not losing ground, he’ll continue to man the hot corner for someone until his deal runs out after 2022, by which point, he’ll be thirty-five and probably showing signs of full decline.

HoME Outlook:
I used to think that Longoria was already a hair’s breadth over the in/out line. Now I think he’s clearly below it. He could sneak into contention with a handful more career WAR, but his peak value would be among the lowest of the HoME’s third basemen. Better would be to hang on just long enough to gather up 7–10 more WAR. Easier said than done for a player already declining noticeably from peak form. Gun-to-head, he’s probably not going to make it, but he’s going to be Ian-Kinsler close.

Josh Donaldson

2019 BBREF WAR:
6.1

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 29
Ahead of Ned Williamson, Stan Hack, and Larry Gardner
Trailing Bob Elliott, Matt Williams, and Robin Ventura

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019: 31
Ahead of Larry Gardner, Robin Ventura, and Stan Hack
Trailing Matt Williams, Bill Bradley, and Toby Harrah

Current career trajectory per Eric:
After 2018’s injuryfest, I worried that Donaldson would become the Al Rosen of his era. Instead, in an very good 2019, he played more than he has the past two years, and he rebounded most of the way back to his prior established level. He wasn’t all the way back with the bat, maybe about halfway. The power returned entirely, and he drew walks aplenty. His batting average remained a little low, because added twenty to thirty strikeouts from his peak performances. But his defense noticeably ticked back up toward the range of his best days. Entering his age-34 season, he could have a year or two at or near an All-Star level, provided the power and the glove stay strong. He’s a player with a peculiar career path, so it’s not like there’s many guys to comp against mentally. But he’s got serious skills and, health willing, he should age decently.

HoME Outlook:
Donaldson has about the same peak value as Longoria (who is a year younger) but trails the Giant third baseman by ten WAR at the career level. Time isn’t on Donaldson’s side. He needs to either continue dropping All-Star seasons on the league or unzip a long string of three-to-four win seasons to get close. His worst-case scenario, assuming he doesn’t get hit by a bus, is ending up like Ron Cey: Just outside the walls of the city. His best case probably looks like David Wright or Sal Bando, just on the inside.

Nolan Arenado

2019 BBREF WAR:
5.7

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 35
Ahead of Ken Caminiti, Harlond Clift, and Pie Traynor
Trailing Larry Gardner, Toby Harrah, and Tim Wallach

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019: 41
Ahead of Al Rosen, Art Devlin, and Bobby Bonilla
Trailing Ezra Sutton, Ken Caminiti, and Pie Traynor

Current career trajectory per Eric:
It’s important for me to always mention that this guy and I share a birthday. I’m sure he’s excited to know that. Arenado started young and has basically matched Donaldson’s career so far. The differences between them—besides five years of age—are twofold. First, Arenado’s got a better glove. Second, and a corollary, he’s not got as good a bat. What he does have is a fat contract with the Rox that will keep him in purple pinstripes through 2025 when he reaches the ripe old age of thirty-five. What he also has is amazing consistency. Every year he hits around .300/.370/.570 for about a 130 OPS+. In Colorado that makes him merely a good hitter. There’s no particular warning signs of imminent collapse, though his defense in the last two years has come down from Brooks Robinson to merely mortal. This looks like normal aging because nothing else in his profile has changed radically. Still, it does chip away at the ceiling of his value. Third basemen generally don’t age as well as other non-catchers around the diamond because it’s a tweener position: You need to be good enough to field a tricky position, and simultaneously good enough to be an offensive contributor. Arenado has room to gently decline and maintain a productive career for a long time. Arenado plays every damned day in Colorado, so let’s hope the thin air treats his body more kindly than the likes of Larry Walker or Troy Tulowitzki.

HoME Outlook:
Unlike Donaldson, Arenado has time on his side, which should allow him to keep adding value for years to come. I suspect he’ll end up with a case for the HoME like Buddy Bell’s. Or to make a cross-positional comparison, a case not unlike fellow Rock Todd Helton.

Manny Machado

2019 BBREF WAR:
3.1

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 57
Ahead of Ezra Sutton, Gary Gaetti, and Bill Madlock
Trailing Travis Fryman, Denny Lyons, and Kyle Seager

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019: 53
Ahead of Kyle Seager, Ryan Zimmerman, and Travis Fryman
Trailing Eric Chavez, Troy Glaus, and Ken Keltner

Current career trajectory per Eric:
The Padres manned up over the winter to no avail in the standings, but they have a lot of hope with youngsters like Fernando Tatis, Jr. That’s good because if what they got from Manny Machado this year foreshadows his future production, it’s going to be a long contract. But let’s not get too cozy with the idea that the end has begun for Machado. He’s still going to be just 27 years old in 2020, and he’s still an incredibly good player. He’ll bounce back. And after all, we’ve seen this Machado before…or doesn’t anyone remember 2017 when he had probably the same season?

HoME Outlook:
Right now, Machado’s peak performance looks a little light. He needs another MVP year or two to kick his case into high gear. I think he’ll do it because, well, because! That’s why!

Kyle Seager

2019 BBREF WAR:
2.4 

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 56
Ahead of Manny Machado, Ezra Sutton, and Gary Gaetti
Trailing Travis Fryman, Denny Lyons, and Kyle Seager

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019: 54
Ahead of Ryan Zimmerman, Travis Fryman, and Gary Gaetti
Trailing Manny Machado, Eric Chavez, and Troy Glaus

Current career trajectory per Eric:
Rumors of his demise proved exaggerated. Seager returned, if not to form, at least to function. He played the whole season albeit at a diminished capacity. He’s an average player now, completing the slide down from his peak. He should hang on a while longer and end up clocking out with a career similar to Doug Decinces or Troy Glaus.

HoME Outlook:
Nyet with chance of nein.

Ryan Zimmerman

2019 BBREF WAR:
-0.2

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 53
Ahead of Travis Fryman, Denny Lyons, and Kyle Seager
Trailing Doug DeCinces, Troy Glauas, and Eric Chavez

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019: 55
Ahead of Travis Fryman, Gary Gaetti, and Denny Lyons
Trailing Kyle Seager, Manny Machado, and Eric Chavez

Current career trajectory per Eric:
The Ice Man cameth, but Zimmerman remained employed anyway. He’ll be a free agent this winter, and I wouldn’t bet on any team taking seriously the idea of first baseman Ryan Zimmerman (86 OPS+).

HoME Outlook:
We won’t have the pleasure of his company.

Justin Turner

2019 BBREF WAR:
3.7

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 62
Ahead of Jeff Cirillo, Jimmy Dykes, and George Kell
Trailing Gary Gaetti, Bill Madlock, and Willie Kamm

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019: 61
Ahead of Jeff Cirillo, George Kell, and Jimmy Dykes
Trailing Willie Kamm, Bill Madlock, and Denny Lyons

Current career trajectory per Eric:
One of the adorably wacky career paths documented in the very interesting The MVP Machine. Turner morphed from a Punch-and-Judy hitter to 30-homer monster basically overnight, propelling him along a Donaldson-lite trajectory. Time isn’t on his side. He’s actually a year older than Donaldson, and we can expect age to start gobbling up his performance soon.

HoME Outlook:
Well, if you want to dream, he could throw out another four seasons of All-Star level play and get pretty darned close to the in/out line. But I would rather bet on the next great Wesley Snipes movie myself.

Kris Bryant

2019 BBREF WAR:
3.6

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 79
Ahead of Matt Carpenter, Kevin Seitzer, and Ken McMullen
Trailing Carney Lansford, Eddie Foster, and Melvin Mora

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019: 72
Ahead of Edgardo Alfonzo, Terry Pendleton, and Melvin Mora
Trailing Hank Thompson, Harry Steinfeldt, and Billy Werber

Current career trajectory per Miller:
At just 27 until January, Bryant isn’t old, but the stud we thought we knew from 2015-2017 hasn’t shown himself the last two years. Sure, injuries have played a role, but there are still games and value he can’t get back. The real issue is that he went from a small asset with the glove to a small liability. One of the reasons I prefer DRA to rField is that the former makes more sense. Younger, more agile players usually fare better. And as players age, they seldom turn things around, as defense is largely based on athleticism, much more so than hitting or even pitching where old(er) dogs can learn new tricks. Most people, even great athletes, can only slow the aging process, not reverse it.

HoME Outlook:
I’ll take the under. Still, he’s young enough that an MVP-level season in 2020, which is certainly possible, might make me reconsider what might become of him.

Matt Carpenter

2019 BBREF WAR:
0.8

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 80
Ahead of Kevin Seitzer, Ken McMullen, and Eddie Yost
Trailing Eddie Foster, Melvin Mora, and Kris Bryant

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019:
Ahead of Ray Boone, Eddie Yost, and Freddie Lindstrom
Trailing Carney Lansford, Bob Ferguson, and Richie Hebner

Current career trajectory per Miller:
The slugging percentage and walk rated are headed in the wrong direction. So is has age. Despite the fact that he can still field his position, I don’t think the Cards will enjoy paying him $39 million over the next two years.

HoME Outlook:
Nope.

Edwin Encarnacion

2019 BBREF WAR:
2.7

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 71
Ahead of Red Smith, Terry Pendleton, and Harry Steinfeldt
Trailing Billy Werber, Hank Thompson, and Buddy Lewis

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019: 89
Ahead of Bob Bailey, Whitey Kurowski, and Anthony Rendon
Trailing Jerry Denny, Kevin Seitzer, and Jim Ray Hart

Current career trajectory per Miller:
As long as he can keep hitting 32 home runs per year, something he’s done for eight straight, and drawing walks at a reasonable rate, he’s going to have a job batting 5^th or 6^th for someone. Nice gig. Does he have 86 homers left in him to get to 500? Well, he’ll be 37 when next season begins, and he’ll need at least three more campaigns. I don’t expect it, though it sure would be a fun story.

HoME Outlook:
He’s not getting to the HoME, but imagine a few good years through 2022. He tops 2,000 hits, he gets to 1,500 ribbies, and he reaches 500 home runs. While it would be a terrible decision, I don’t put it beyond Hall voters.

Anthony Rendon

2019 BBREF WAR:
6.3

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 92
Ahead of Whitey Kurowski, Jerry Denny, and Billy Shindle
Trailing Lee Tannehill, Jim Ray Hart, and Ossie Bluege

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019: 89
Ahead of Chase Headley, Lee Tannehill, and Ossie Bluege
Trailing Whitey Kurowski, Bob Bailey, and Edwin Encarnacion

Current career trajectory per Miller:
After picking a fine time to have what may have been his best year yet, he’s the offensive free agent target this winter, right? But a word of caution. Rendon will be 30 next summer. He’s not hitting free agency like Machado and Harper did a year ago. Young, still possibly with a peak to come. I suspect Rendon will get six years somewhere, the I suspect that’ll be too many. He’ll be fun to watch for the next couple of seasons, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

HoME Outlook:
If he repeats 2910 four times, he’s right in the conversation. However, should he have four years of “only” 5 WAR, we’re looking at Tim Wallach. While great, I think even that is optimistic.

Jose Ramirez

2019 BBREF WAR:
3.3

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 108
Ahead of Howard Johnson, Willie Jones, and Bill Mueller
Trailing Bob Ferguson, Doug Rader, and Alex Bregman

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019: 100
Ahead of Alex Bregman, Todd Frazier, and Mike Lowell
Trailing Red Rolfe, Clete Boyer, and Wid Conroy

Current career trajectory per Miller:
A lot of people were pretty excited a year ago. Then on May 26, Ramirez saw his line dip to .197/.297/.295. It was ugly. He rebounded with a .294/.347/.602 line the rest of the way, which reminds us of who we thought we were seeing in 2017 and 2018. But that’s still a two month blip he can’t get back, and everything counts when making a case for the HoME. Let’s see what 2020 brings.

HoME Outlook:
Yeah, let’s see what 2020 brings. If he averages over the next five what he did in the last three, he’d be over 94 MAPES+, about where Evan Longoria is now. There’s a shot we’re watching a HoME-level career.

Alex Bregman

2019 BBREF WAR:
8.4

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 107
Ahead of Jose Ramirez, Howard Johnson, and Willie Jones
Trailing Ken Oberkfell, Bob Ferguson, and Doug Rader

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019: 101
Ahead of Todd Frazier, Mike Lowell, and Martin Prado
Trailing Jose Ramirez, Red Rolfe, and Clete Boyer

Current career trajectory per Miller:
Who’s the second best player in the game? I’d go with Mookie, but the best other choice for my money is this guy.

HoME Outlook:
Let’s consider the same experiment we performed with Ramirez above. If Bregman averages the same from 26-30 as he did from 23-25, he’d be at 93 MAPES+. Another such year gets him above 98. You know what they say, barring injury…

Todd Frazier

2019 BBREF WAR:
2.2

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 101
Ahead of Juan Urbe, Jimmy Austin, and Ken Oberkfell
Trailing Mike Lowell, Pablo Sandoval, and Wid Conroy

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019: 102
Ahead of Mike Lowell, Martin Prado, and Ken Oberkfell
Trailing Alex Bregman, Jose Ramirez, and Red Rolfe

Current career trajectory per Miller:
Frazier is still who he’s always been, about a 3-win player over the course of a full season, not including his 2104-2105 peak. Can he keep it up for another year? Sure. I guess. Maybe. He’ll be a free agent again this winter. Some team will give him a couple of years, I suspect.

HoME Outlook:
Well, the HoME isn’t happening. Nice little career for Frazier though. He went over 200 homers and 1,000 hits last year. Fun, round numbers.

Martin Prado

2019 BBREF WAR:
-1.3

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 96
Ahead of Red Rolfe, Mike Lowell, and Pablo Sandoval
Trailing White Kurowski, Jerry Denny, and Billy Shindle

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019: 104
Ahead of Ken Oberkfell, Howard Johnson, and Jimmy Austin
Trailing Mike Lowell, Todd Frazier, and Alex Bregman

Current career trajectory per Miller:
I sometimes wonder if the Marlins are bad because their players are bad, or their players are bad just because they have to play for the Marlins. A free agent, nobody should allow Prado to play for them again.

HoME Outlook:
Ralph Kiner and Brad Radke were both also born on October 27, and both belong in the HoME before Prado. Though he’s third in WAR on his birthday, he’s only fourth among those born in Maracay in Venezuela. Man, BBREF is awesome!

Pablo Sandoval

2019 BBREF WAR:
1.5

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2019: 99
Ahead of Wid Conroy, Todd Frazier, and Juan Uribe
Trailing Martin Prado, Red Rolfe, and Mike Lowell

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2019:
Ahead of Levi Meyerle, Don Hoak, and Corey Koskie
Trailing Willie Jones, Doug Rader, and Juan Uribe

Current career trajectory per Miller:
He’s at -1.0 WAR over the last five years, and the Red Sox are done paying him. I think his career is over. It certainly should be.

HoME Outlook:
He had a great 2012 playoff run. Can’t take that away from him.

Fellows We’re Following

What third basemen might you see in next year’s third-base roundup?

• Matt Chapman (18.5 BBREF WAR)
• David Freese (17.2)
• Mike Moustakas (17.1)
• Eugenio Suarez (15.3)

Top 40

Coming up in a week, the shortstops. Hope you join us then.

Miller and Eric

The Best 40 Designated Hitters Ever

I suppose you’ve heard by now that Harold Baines is going to the Hall of Fame. Well, his election got me thinking about all things Baines. Back in my day (humor intended), it was a bad thing to be a career DH. Voters even held such things against you. Well I have good news for you, Jason Giambi. Those days are over!

Today we’re going to rank the best 40 designated hitters in history. Now, anytime I undertake a project such as this, one of the first things I do is head to the Play Index over at Baseball Reference (you should subscribe) and start filtering. I decided to look at all players with 5,000 plate appearances and at least 25% of their games at DH. There are exactly 50 players who fit those parameters. Perhaps you prefer a different number of plate appearances or percentage of games at DH. If so, okay.

As an aside, there are just eight players ever with more than 5,000 trips to the plate and at least half of their games at DH. Alphabetically, they’re Harold Baines, Don Baylor, Billy Butler, Edgar Martinez, Hal McRae, Kendrys Morales, David Ortiz, and Frank Thomas.

Anyway, we have out 50, so let’s get crackin’.

The first thing I did was narrow by getting rid of the ten guys on the list who I haven’t ranked yet. So goodbye to Alvin Davis, Cecil Fielder, Ruben Sierra, Larry Parrish, Jorge Orta, Matt Stairs, Morales, Dimitri Young, Adam Lind, and Butler. If we went by straight WAR, I’d have the 38 “best” along with #41 (Dave Kingman), and a guy tied with Davis for #38 (George Bell). I suppose I could just chart Davis and feel a little more complete. Then again, it’s not like he has a shot at the top-25 list.

Once I got my list together, I referred to my MAPES+ post and did almost everything the same way I did for every other position player. Just two differences. First, I put anyone with the requisite plate appearances and percentage of games at DH at the position. Second, since we have 5.11 careers at DH in the HoME, I looked at the medians of the best 10 at the position for each of peak, prime, consecutive, and career.

So here are the results.

#25 Rico Carty (64^th in LF): The Beeg Boy won a batting title and an OBP title in a nice 1970 season. His only All-Star campaign, I translate that season to almost 5.3 WAR, better than Harold Baines ever did.

#24 Edwin Encarnacion (80^th at 3B): E5 is still at it and still a good enough hitter, so this ranking may rise in the next year or two. He has 30+ homers in each of the past seven seasons, something Baines never did once. I wouldn’t put money on number eight, but you never know.

#23 Greg Vaughn (60^th in LF): In 1998 and 1999 he hit 50 and 45 home runs for the Padres and Reds, respectively. In each of those seasons he finished 4^th in the MVP voting. He was very impressive in 1998, but he was just good, not great, for the Reds. His second best season was 1993 for the Brewers, when he played good defense. Two seasons of at least 5.3 WAR. Not bad. And not something Baines did even once.

#22 Harold Baines (79^th in RF): He’s the reason for this post. He’s also the reason my original plan to name the best 20 turned into the best 25 and then 40. American novelist William Gaddis once said that stupidity is the deliberate cultivation of ignorance. If you refuse to learn anything beyond what you knew when you were twelve years old about evaluating baseball players, I think Gaddis would have called you stupid. And I’d agree with him. Baines had a better top season than only five designated hitters of the 40 on this list. Only eight have fewer 3-win seasons than his four. Maybe you’ve heard this already, but Baines is the single worst Hall of Fame choice ever.

#21 Mickey Tettleton (48^th at C): Five times Tettleton walked 100+ times in a season, and he posted a career .369 OBP despite a BA of just .241. Baines had a career OBP of just .356. With the help of a tiny bit of rounding, Tettleton had three All-Star-level seasons in his career. That’s three more than Baines.

#20 Chili Davis (75^th in CF): Chili’s position is center field? That’s hilarious. The truth is that he wasn’t miserable there as a young man, and he transitioned fairly quickly to DH. Each of his best five seasons were better than the seasons Baines put up.

#19 Victor Martinez (44^th at C): Now retired, V-Mart won OBP and OPS titles when he was 35. He also led the game with 28 intentional walks and finished second in the MVP voting to Mike Trout. Martinez retires with seven seasons I convert to over 3.2 WAR. Baines had one such season.

#18 Juan Gonzalez (#69 in RF): Gonzalez is a lot like Harold Baines in that his stats were so wildly misunderstood that he won awards he never should have, specifically the AL MVP trophies in 1996 and 1998. Sure, he averaged 46 HR and 150 RBI in those campaigns, but there were better players in both seasons. By WAR, Alex Rodriguez would have been a fine choice in both of those years. Ken Griffey, Edgar Martinez, Ivan Rodriguez, Kenny Lofton, Manny Ramirez, Rafael Palmeiro, Robin Ventura, Albert Belle, Bernie Williams, Mo Vaughn, Paul O’Neill, and even Scott Brosius out-performed Gonzalez in both of those years. I remember 1996 and 1998 quite well. Many were up in arms about how the BBWAA did such an awful job. Sadly, those on the Era Committee haven’t progressed beyond where the BBWAA was more than two decades ago. When does Juan Gonzalez hit their ballot?

#17 David Justice (67^th in RF): With rounding, he had six seasons of 4.0 WAR. Baines had just one. Justice was better in each of his top seven seasons than Baines. Plus, he hit 14 post-season home runs and drove in 63 runs in the playoffs. Baines had just 5 and 16.

#16 Kirk Gibson (63^rd in RF): Gibson never hit 30 homers and never drove in 100 runs. He won the 1988 NL MVP with just 6.5 WAR, yet it’s an award he may have deserved. Gibson owns one of the most iconic home runs in baseball history. Can you name one Harold Baines homer?

#15 Nelson Cruz (62^nd in RF): He’s in the midst of a ten-year run with 20+ homers in each campaign, including a 2014 HR title and a 2017 RBI title. Baines never had either of those. Cruz’ seventh best year in homers equals Baines’ best. At this point on the list, I can say with some confidence that we’re a level above Baines in terms of value to a team. Actually, I’m pretty confident in Justice and Gibson too.

#14 Ken Singleton (47^th in RF): Singleton finished second in the MVP voting in 1979 and third in 1977. While voting wasn’t done very well back then, Singleton was better in both of those campaigns than Baines ever was. I think it’s interesting that he led the game in intentional walks in his penultimate season. He was still a real threat then, as his 131 OPS+ shows. But man, he lost it quickly. Singleton had four seasons better than Baines’ best, and he was better than the Hall of Famer in each of their best eight seasons.

#13 Brian Downing (38^th in LF): There he is, the man who wrestles with Tim Wakefield and Mookie Betts for the title of my all-time favorite. Had he been born 40 years later, we’d see what a star he was. Downing had nice power and got on base at an incredible rate. Bear with me on a concocted statistic for a moment. Baines was so well thought of when he played that the White Sox retired his number while he was still active. Downing was never thought of similarly, not even close. However, both had exactly three top-20 finishes in the MVP voting. Downing only played 110 games with the White Sox once, yet his best season with the Pale Hose was better than Baines’ second best. And overall, Downing was better than Baines in each of their top ELEVEN SEASONS (yes, I’m yelling). Baines had a career WAA of 1.8; Downing’s was 21.1. If only one could be in the Hall of Fame, it’s not Baines.

#12 Jose Canseco (46^th in RF): Maybe you’ve heard that Canseco used PEDs. Yet, he didn’t hit a single home run after his age-36 season. Baines is one of only 37 players to top 80 long balls in his age-37 season and later. As opposed to the 37 who topped his HR count after 36, there are 119 players who topped his HR count through that age. Baines and Canseco became teammates in 1990. Interesting. No, I’m not trying to imply that Baines used PEDs. I’m just saying that we don’t know what we don’t know. What we do know is that Canseco and Baines were teammates, lots of Canseco’s teammates used, and Baines was a more prolific home run hitter after playing with Canseco than he was in the years before. There’s smoke. I’m not saying he used PEDs. After all, people inject those, they don’t smoke ‘em.

#11 Jim Rice (35^th in LF): Rice may be the modern player whose rating gives me the most pause. The Baseball Gauge has moved Rice’s DRA numbers back and forth in the last few years. That means I sometimes apply an adjustment for Fenway Park’s left field that Michael Humhreys, DRA’s creator, suggests – and sometimes I don’t. When The Baseball Gauge readjusted DRA numbers last off-season, I didn’t update mine. That’s because Rice rises and falls with DRA adjustments, except he shouldn’t as long as the Fenway factor in left field correctly adjusts the slugger’s defensive numbers. All of this is to say that I don’t know. What I do know is that Rice doesn’t belong in the Hall. Yet, he had five years better than any single one Baines ever had.

#10 Tim Salmon (41^st in RF): With my adjustments, Salmon has seven 4-win seasons compared to one for Baines. He’s tragically underrated and underappreciated. Of those position players with greater WAR for the decade from 1993-2002, they’re either all in the HoME, not yet eligible, or named John Olerud, Robin Ventura, or Luis Gonzalez. Each of his best ten seasons are better than those of Baines.

#9 Tony Oliva (38^th in RF): Oliva had eight 4-win seasons and then nothing. Injuries destroyed his career, a career with five hit titles, four doubles titles, and three batting titles. He was an elite hitter, a good fielder, and a helpful baserunner. Baines was none of those things. He had eight years that were worth almost 1 WAR more than Baines put up in any but his absolute peak.

#8 David Ortiz (38^th at 1B): The following things are true: 1) David Ortiz was miles better than Harold Baines; 2) I am a Red Sox fan; 3) I do not believe David Ortiz is worthy of the Hall of Fame. What does that say about how far off Baines is? Each of Ortiz’ twelve best seasons are better than those of Baines. Oh, and he was kind of good in the playoffs too. Compare his 17 HR, 61 RBI, and two series MVP trophies to 5 HR, 16 RBI and a record of 2-6 in playoff series for Baines.

#7 Jason Giambi (31^st at 1B): Don’t look too closely, Sox fans. Yes, I do prefer Giambi to Ortiz by a little bit. Giambi won three OBP titles and the 2000 MVP Award that should have gone to Alex Rodriguez (if you didn’t want to give it to Pedro Martinez). He is the only player on this DH list with two MVP-level seasons, and his third-best season is better than anyone else’s #3 campaign. I’d say it’ll be interesting to see his level of support a year from now, but I expect it to be close to zero. Of course, he deserves more votes than Baines did.

#6 Vlad Guerrero (24^th in RF): Is this the year Vlad gets into the HoME? Vlad has eight seasons better than Baines’ best.

#5 Edgar Martinez (13^th at 3B): It’s stunning that Baines was voted into the Hall before Edgar. Edgar has nine seasons better than any one season Baines ever put up.

#4 Paul Molitor (10^th at 3B): Molitor played 21 seasons. He’s better than Baines in his best, his second best, and every other one through his twenty-first.

#3 Jim Thome (19^th at 1B): Thome played 22 seasons. He’s better than Baines in his best, his second best, and every other one through his twenty-second.

#2 Frank Thomas (15^th at 1B): He has eight seasons a full win better than Baines’ best. He has nine seasons two wins better than Baines’ second best.

#1 Reggie Jackson (8^th in RF): I forget how great Jackson was. Maybe it was the strikeouts, maybe his big mouth. He’s one of the all-time greats. Same as Harold Baines. At least that’s what the Hall of Fame tells me.

Hal McRae, Mike Sweeney, Andre Thronton, Aubrey Huff, and Lee May failed to make the top-25 designated hitters of all-time. Still, if we rank every one of their first four seasons, each would beat Baines every time.

Here’s the MAPES+ DH list.

Perhaps I’ll stop talking about Baines soon.

Miller

2018 HoME Update, Active Third Basemen

Third base is home to some impressive young talent, some so-so veterans, the great Adrian Beltre, and a pleasantly plump Panda who can be had for the league minimum because the Red Sox have already paid him his $18.6 million. This is our fourth installment in the series. Please take a look at the others.

[Catcher], [First Base], [Second Base]

Adrian Beltre
2018 BBREF WAR:
2.2

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
7
Ahead of Chipper Jones, Paul Molitor, and Dick Allen
Trailing Ron Santo, Home Run Baker, and George Brett

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
8
Ahead of Ken Boyer, Paul Molitor, and Buddy Bell
Trailing Chipper Jones, Home Run Baker, and Ron Santo

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
Even though he’s running out of steam, and even though his health is no longer reliable, the guy can still play. Part of me hopes to see him in 2019. Most of me would like to see him leave before the real decline hits.

HoME Outlook:
First ballot, no-brainer.

David Wright
2018 BBREF WAR:
0.0

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
25
Ahead of Ron Cey, Bob Elliott, and Toby Harrah
Trailing Heinie Groh, Evan Longoria, and Sal Bando

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
23
Ahead of Geinie Groh, Ron Cey, and Evan Longoria
Trailing Sal Bando, John McGraw, and Ned Williamson

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
Retired. I’ll miss ya, Dave.

HoME Outlook:
Unless the Hall opens its doors quite wide in the next few years or unless this era is short on third basemen, I don’t imagine Wright will get in. But he’s close. And maybe we’ll learn something else about his game or the game in the next few years. I hope we do.

Evan Longoria
2018 BBREF WAR:
1.9

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
23
Ahead of Heinie Groh, David Wright, and Ron Cey
Trailing Sal Bando, Ned Williamson, and John McGraw

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
26
Ahead of Toby Harrah, Bob Elliott, and Robin Ventura
Trailing Ron Cey, Heinie Groh, and David Wright

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
He’s running less well. His walk rate is down. He didn’t have an abnormally low BABIP. He’s not elevating the ball the same in the last two years. His defense slipped from great, to good, to below average. Almost all signs point to him just running out the clock. I don’t ever expect him to be great again. And frankly, I don’t know that he’ll be good again. The question is whether or not he’s close enough now to get there with just a few more WAR.

HoME Outlook:
Aside from being hurt at age 26, he was a great player from 22-27. Then he added what Eric calls those shoulder seasons from 28-31. Last year he was 32 and not looking too hot. His run reminds me a little of Eric Chavez’. Differences include that Longoria was better than we thought, while Chavez was worse than we hoped. Plus, those shoulder seasons matter. So what does Longoria need to do to get into the HoME? WAR of 3, 2, and 1 would get him past Sal Bando for me. Doing so could garner him a vote, but that didn’t work for Ned Williamson (who has other issues) or John McGaw (in as a manager). Plus, there’s not a lot of reason to expect a 3-win season again. Finishing 2, 2, and 1 would still leave him ahead of Bando – in 22^nd place at third. A final three of 1.5, 1.0, 0.5 wouldn’t do it. I don’t know what to make of Longoria. I do know what to make of aging. It seldom reverses when we want it to. Longoria’s future with a plaque will depend on the size of the Hall, the strength of the position in his era, and the fight against Father Time. We’ll just have to wait to see.

Josh Donaldson
2018 BBREF WAR:
1.2

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
40
Ahead of Al Rosen, Art Devlin, and Ken Caminiti
Trailing Pie Traynor, Bill Bradley, and Harlond Clift

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
40
Ahead of Al Rosen, Art Devlin, and Arlie Latham
Trailing Pie Traynor, Tim Wallach, and Ken Caminiti

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
When you start as last as Donaldson did, you can’t have a misstep. He sort of had one last year, and he absolutely had one this. Sure, it was health rather than performance, but bodies don’t often get healthier as they approach their mid-thirties.

HoME Outlook:
He was a fun one to watch for a few years. I think the chances he gets to the HoME are extremely small right now. If he somehow puts up 7+ WAR next season, we’ll talk. Until then, I don’t have high hopes.

Kyle Seager
2018 BBREF WAR:
0.8

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
52
Ahead of Billy Nash, Ken Keltner, and Manny Machado
Trailing Kyle Seager, Troy Glaus, and Doug DeCinces

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
5
Ahead of Ken Keltner, Travis Fryman, and Manny Machado
Trailing Troy Glaus, Eric Chavez, and Billy Nash

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
I love this kind of player. Starts late, makes a nice and unexpected run, and declines as you might predict, if a little precipitously. He’s still signed for three more years. Yikes! Hopefully for the Mariners he starts earning that contract they probably never should have given to him.

HoME Outlook:
He was never even Josh Donaldson. Still, not everyone can get into the HoME. Some settle for just being really nice players for a few years. There’s nothing wrong with that.

Manny Machado
2018 BBREF WAR:
5.7

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
55
Ahead of Travis Fryman, Ryan Zimmerman, and Nolan Arenado
Trailing Ken Keltner, Billy Nash, and Kyle Seager

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
54
Ahead of Denny Lyons, Gary Gaetti, and Nolan Arenado
Trailing Travis Fryman, Ken Keltner, and Kyle Seager

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
His trajectory might be about half a billion dollars. Even though just about any contract of that size is destined to be a bad one, it’s going to be so hard for the 30 teams in the game who could use him to not go a bit whacky. Though he’s never been an absolute stud, he’s been close. And there’s reason to believe maturing into his body and settling on a position could help him reach new heights. He won’t turn 26 until around the All-Star Game, so start salivating.

HoME Outlook:
Here’s the list of all guys within one win of him through age-25. It’s Joe DiMaggio, Cal Ripken, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, and Sherry Magee. When your floor is Sherry Magee, a HoMEr who’s 16^th ever in MAPES+ in left field, things are looking exceptional. It’s entirely possible we’re watching an all-time great, and it’s clear we’re looking at someone with a great shot at turning into a HoMEr.

Nolan Arenado
2018 BBREF WAR:
5.6

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
58
Ahead of Bob Ferguson, Bill Madlock, and Don Money
Trailing Ryan Zimmerman, Travis Fryman, and Manny Machado

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
57
Ahead of Ryan Zimmerman, Bill Madlock, and Willie Kamm
Trailing Gary Gaetti, Denny Lyons, and Manny Machado

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
Three years Machado’s senior, Arenado hasn’t yet had a misstep of any sort since breaking out in 2015. He’s averaged 6.1 WAR per year over the last four, and he’ll only be 28 next year. Thus, there’s reason to believe that peak could continue for a bit. Let’s imagine 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 4.5, 3.0, 1.5, and retirement. That would mean he’s out after his age-33 season, which feels early. Still, play along. He’d jump from #57 to #21, right in between Ned Williamson and John McGraw, ahead of HoMEr Sal Bando.

HoME Outlook:
When I’m trying to project six years out, it’s clearly too early to tell. Just know that he’s setting himself up well thus far.

Ryan Zimmerman
2018 BBREF WAR:
1.3

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
57
Ahead of Nolan Arenado, Bob Ferguson, and Bill Madlock
Trailing Travis Fryman, Manny Machado, and Ken Keltner

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
58
Ahead of Bill Madlock, Willie Kamm, and Don Money
Trailing Nolan Arenado, Gary Gaetti, and Denny Lyons

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
Remember a couple of minths into 2017 when we thought he was back? Beware the small sample, friends. I wish him well, but there’s no reason to think he’ll be good again.

HoME Outlook:
It’s not happening, though he did have 24.5 WAR through age 25. That’s better than Nolan Arenado. Just saying.

Edwin Encarnacion
2018 BBREF WAR:
1.9

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
75
Ahead of Eddie Foster, Terry Pendleton, and Ray Boone
Trailing Richie Hebner, Melvin Mora, and Kevin Seitzer

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
80
Ahead of Edgardo Alfonzo, Tom Burns, and Bob Bailey
Trailing Ray Boone, Eddie Foster, and Hank Thompson

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
Want my fandom? Break out at 29. Have Encarnacion’s personality. Have Encarnacion’s name. He’ll be 36 next year and just 20 homers shy of 400. Since he hasn’t had fewer than 32 since 2011, I think he’s going to get there. That’s cool enough, no matter how deep into decline he finds himself.

HoME Outlook:
One run gets him to 1,000. He’s also likely to get to 400 homers. He needs only 295 hits for 2,000. I doubt he gets that one. And he’s not going to the HoME. Still, it’s been a very nice seven years.

Matt Carpenter
2018 BBREF WAR:
4.9

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
89
Ahead of Ossie Bluege, Levi Meyerle, and Chase Headley
Trailing Whitey Kurowski, Jerry Denny, and Jim Ray Hart

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
89
Ahead of Ossie Bluege, Justin Turner, and Lee Tannehill
Trailing Jerry Denny, Whitey Kurowski, and Eddie Yost

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
By WAR, 2018 was his second best season. Let’s not confuse things though. He’s not improving. Trivially, the only Cardinals with more plate appearances and no World Series titles in St. Louis are Ted Simmons and Ray Lankford. No, I don’t know what made me research that.

HoME Outlook:
He’s not going. And he probably won’t win a World Series in St. Louis either.

Justin Turner
2018 BBREF WAR:
4.5

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
95
Ahead of Mike Lowell, Martin Prado, and Red Rolfe
Trailing Billy Shindle, Lee Tannehill, and Chase Headley

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
91
Ahead of Lee Tannehill, Clete Boyer, and Chase Headley
Trailing Ossie Bluege, Matt Carpenter, and Jerry Denny

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
These late developers always intrigue. Turner was awesome in 2018 when he played. And the Dodgers are lucky to have him for another year. But about 2020, I wouldn’t expect too much. It’s hard to play a great third base, or any third base, when you’re 35.

HoME Outlook:
If his career began in 2015 with his first good year, and he were 20 then rather than 30, it might be an interesting thought project. As it is, it isn’t.

Chase Headley
2018 BBREF WAR:
-0.4

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
92
Ahead of Lee Tannehill, Billy Shindle, and Justin Turner
Trailing Levi Meyerle, Ossie Bluege, and Matt Carpenter

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
94
Ahead of Red Rolfe, Billy Shindle, and Kris Bryant
Trailing Clete Boyer, Lee Tannehill, and Justin Turner

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
He’s a little like Martin Prado (below) without as much positional flexibility. He led the NL in runs batted in in 2012. Really, he did. Next year he’ll be 35 and looking for a team. Of course, he looked for one for a few months this year to no avail. I don’t expect it to happen.

HoME Outlook:
He’ll always have the impressive 2012. He has no other HoME-level seasons though.

Martin Prado
2018 BBREF WAR:
0.3

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
97
Ahead of Red Rolfe, Wid Conroy, and Kris Bryant
Trailing Mike Lowell, Justin Turner, and Billy Shindle

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
99
Ahead of Ken Oberkfell, Howard Johnson,  and Jimmy Austin
Trailing Wid Conroy, Kris Bryant, and Billy Shindle

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
He had been a nice little player for quite some time. Not any longer. Since he’s making $15 million next year, you don’t expect him to be a Marlin. Then again, it’s not like he’ll be much easier to trade this winter than last. The best of Prado is clearly in the rear view mirror.

HoME Outlook:
Nah.

Kris Bryant
2018 BBREF WAR:
1.9

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
100
Ahead of Doug Rader, Mike Mowrey, and Jimmy Austin
Trailing Wid Conroy, Red Rolfe, and Martin Prado

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
97
Ahead of Wid Conroy, Martin Prado, and Ken Oberkfell
Trailing Billy Shindle, Red Rolfe, and Chase Headley

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
Want to know why the Cubs weren’t so hot in 2018? It was their corner infielders, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, who combined for just 4.6 BBREF WAR. Bryant was hurt some, so there’s a bit of an excuse here, but the injury wasn’t until late in the season. Maybe there was something lingering before that. I just don’t know. Either way, let’s look at 2019 to see if he gets back on track.

HoME Outlook:
I’m not too optimistic. It’s not just because of the year he just put in the books either. It’s that he’s going to be 27 next year. Already. Before this year, he had been pretty great. Still, he’s not young. Perhaps his very best days are behind him. Again, let’s see how 2019 plays out before making any sort of wild predictions.

Todd Frazier
2018 BBREF WAR:
1.9

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
107
Ahead of Corey Koskie, Chone Figgins, and Pablo Sandoval
Trailing Howard Johnson, Juan Uribe, and Ken Oberkfell

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
111
Ahead of Willie Jones, Bob Horner, and Don Hoak
Trailing Chone Figgins, Corey Koskie, and Juan Uribe

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
He’s had seven straight years of 2+ WAR, which isn’t anything to sneeze at, but he’s never been on a path to the HoME. He’ll be 33 next year and once again a Met. Maybe he’ll put up another two wins, maybe he’s about done. I think there’s about a 50/50 shot.

HoME Outlook:
They love him in New Jersey, which is worth some bucks, bucks that a guy with $33 million plus in earnings doesn’t really need.

Jose Ramirez
2018 BBREF WAR:
7.9

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
113
Ahead of Sammy Strang, Casey Blake, and Bill Mueller
Trailing Bob Horner, Willie Jones, and Pablo Sandoval

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
106
Ahead of Levi Meyerle, Juan Uribe, and Corey Koskie
Trailing Sammy Strang, Doug Rader, and Mike Lowell

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
Ramirez is a full-fledged superstar, posting 18.4 adjusted WAR over the last three years. Is he going to move to second base? And if so, how will that switch change his defensive value? The real question, though, is for how long he can keep this up. The only bit of weakness we’ve seen in the past few years is a rough run in August and September of 2018. And even then, he was drawing walks. I’ll tell you what, I’m extremely happy trotting this guy onto the field for the next five years if I’m the Indians.

HoME Outlook:
Check back in a few years. For now, it’s looking pretty great.

Pablo Sandoval
2018 BBREF WAR:
0.1

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
110
Ahead of Willie Jones, Bob Horner, and Jose Ramirez
Trailing Chone Figgins, Corey Koskie, and Todd Frazier

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
118
Ahead of Mike Mowrey, Vinny Castilla, and Eric Soderholm
Trailing Milt Stock, Casey Blake, and Bill Mueller

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
I think he ate it. MAPES has him worth almost -1.8 WAR over the last four seasons.

HoME Outlook:
He’ll forever be a 2010 World Series winner, a 2012 World Series winning MVP, and a 2014 playoff stud and World Series winner. Those titles will have to do.

Alex Bregman
2018 BBREF WAR:
6.9

CHEWS+ rank at the position after 2018:
132
Ahead of Aurelio Rodriguez and Hans Lobert
Trailing Dave Magadan, Joe Randa, and George Pinkney

MAPES+ rank at the position after 2018:
134
Ahead of Hans Lobert
Trailing Dave Magadan, George Pinkney, and Joe Randa

You might be wondering how the bottom of our lists look so similar so frequently. No, it’s not that the way we figure MAPES and CHEWS are so similar (though they are). It’s that we almost certainly don’t have the top-130 third basemen ranked. The few at the end might be at the 140s or 150s all-time rather than where they’re ranked. We feel quite confident we have the top-100 or so ranked. Maybe up to 115ish. Anyway, that’s why the very bottom can look so similar.

Current career trajectory per MAPES+:
I don’t know. The guy’s 24, and we probably shouldn’t be charting him yet, after just two full seasons. But we are, and he’s kind of a DRA darling, so I owe you a few words. The Play Index at BBREF is my most profitable annual investment, not in dollars, but in enjoyment. You should invest too. There are nine third basemen within one WAR of Bregman through age 24. It’s a list with three actives, Cap Anson, and a bunch of guys who went generally downholl, including, as you may have suspected, Ken Keltner. But what if we look at my adjusted MAPES WAR? Would the group improve any? Indeed it would! HoMErs Scott Rolen and Frankie Frisch are now on the list. As are Robin Ventura and Ned Williamson, both of whom had careers worthy of HoME discussion. Plus there’s Adrian Beltre. What is seems is that Bregman is looking good for someone with just two years in.

HoME Outlook:
I don’t know. He won’t turn 25 until right about Opening Day 2019.

What I do know is that we have shortstops coming up on Wednesday. Join us then.

Miller

End of the Year HoME Roundup, 3B

We continue evaluating the candidacies of active major leaguers and look at their chances of reaching the Hall of Miller and Eric. Today, we’ll report on the third basemen. We hope you’ll check out our analysis of all the positions.

FIRST BASE | SECOND BASE | THIRD BASE | SHORTSTOP | LEFT FIELD | CENTER FIELD | RIGHT FIELD | CATCHER | RELIEF PITCHERS | LEFT-HANDED PITCHERS | RIGHT-HANDED PITCHERS

Adrian Beltre

2017 BBREF WAR:
3.7

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller: 8
Ahead of Paul Molitor, Buddy Bell, and Edgar Martinez
Trailing Chipper Jones, Home Run Baker, and Ron Santo

Eric: 9
Ahead of Ken Boyer, Scott Rolen, and Brooks Robinson
Trailing Ron Santo, Deacon White, and Chipper Jones

Current career trajectory:
Beltre seems ageless. Were in not for injuries, he was on pace for the second best season of his career. At age 38! However, he was injured, a grade 2 left hamstring injury most recently. He has to begin to regress. Just don’t tell him. Seriously though, his regression will at least be health-related in 2018. And if we’re being fair, health is a skill, so Beltre did regress.

HoME Outlook:
He’s already in. And he’s in the Hall too, not just because of the 3000 hits, but because everyone’s saying it. When enough people start talking about you as a Hall of Famer, you reach a tipping point, and there’s no going back for Beltre. He still has a chance to finish his career as the fifth best 3B of all-time. And he could retire in the top-ten in hits in MLB history. Wow!
—Miller

David Wright

2017 BBREF WAR:
0.0

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller: 26
Ahead of Toby Harrah, Bob Elliot, and Larry Gardner.
Trailing Ron Cey, Evan Longoria, and John McGraw.

Eric: 21
Ahead of Sal Bando, Heinie Groh, and Ron Cey
Trailing John McGraw, Ned Williamson, and Evan Longoria

Current career trajectory:
As I wrote about 15 months ago, I fear Wright’s career is over. Still, he’ll only be 34, and he’s owed $47 million over the next three years. Maybe. Please!

HoME Outlook:
Unless I’m wrong, he’s not very likely to go to the HoME. Eric ranks him ahead of HoMEr Sal Bando, but I have some space between him and the nearest HoMEr at the position as you can see above. For me, he’s going to need to get back on the field. I’m hoping.
—Miller

Evan Longoria

2017 BBREF WAR:
3.6

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller: 24
Ahead of Ron Cey, David Wright, and Toby Harrah.
Trailing John McGraw, Heinie Groh, and Sal Bando.

Eric: 20
Ahead of David Wright, Sal Bando, and Heinie Groh
Trailing Tommy Leach, John McGraw, and Ned Williamson

Current career trajectory:
I’ve long enjoyed watching Longo move his face up the totem pole at third base. However, he seems to be in a long, slow fade. He came out of the gate hot as a young player, but his skills are eroding in front of our eyes. He was below average at the bat for the first time in his career. His home run power slid out from under him this year, leading to the lowest total for a full season in his career. He walked just 46 times, continuing a puzzling and disturbing trend of less selectivity. His overall value has ebbed away, taking him from a six-to-seven-win player to a three-to-five win player. He’s no longer a franchise cornerstone, though his super team-friendly contract makes him a Ray until 2023 unless the team gets bowled over by an offer for him. His comps are filled with guys like Hank Blalock, Scott Rolen, Bob Horner, and Eric Chavez who lost a lot of zip in their 30s and whose careers took a nose dive fast.

HoME Outlook:
Despite that glowing endorsement of the current state of Longoria’s career, he’s practically a made man for me. I’ve got him right on the line of electability (99.9 CHEWS+, where 100 indicates the borderline), so anything he adds in his thirties bolsters his case considerably. Miller has him lower than I do, but close enough that he’s about to ease on by the borderliners in his hot corner rankings.
—Eric

Josh Donaldson

2017 BBREF WAR:
4.8

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller: 44
Ahead of Bobby Bonilla, Heinie Zimmerman, and Billy Nash.
Trailing Al Rosen, Art Devlin, and Doug DeCinces.

Eric: 40
Ahead of Art Devlin, Ken Caminiti, and Heinie Zimmerman
Trailing Pie Trainer, Al Rosen, and Bill Joyce

Current career trajectory:
Donaldson is still a star, which his 4.8 WAR in only 113 games indicates. And though he wasn’t a regular until age-27, he’s averaged 7.2 WAR per season since then. At 32 next year, he needs a couple of very productive seasons in 2018–2019 to really take him seriously as a candidate.

HoME Outlook:
Imagine six more seasons of 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 WAR. That gets him past Sal Bando, and it likely makes him a HoMEr. Donaldson has a real shot of doing something like that. So much will depend on health, as it always does. We should know quite a bit more a year from now. Of course, that’s mere speculation. A better way to estimate what he’ll do might be to look at comparable third basemen through age-31. And when we do so, I’m less optimistic. Tony Perez is on the list, but he’s not so deserving of his Hall spot. Tommy Leach is there too, so there’s a positive note. But we also see Troy Glaus and Travis Fryman and Eric Chavez. Like I said, next season could be quite telling.
—Miller

Ryan Zimmerman

2017 BBREF WAR:
2.7

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller: 55
Ahead of Don Money, Kyle Seager, and Jimmy Dykes.
Trailing Bill Madlock, Willie Kamm, and Denny Lyons.

Eric: 53
Ahead of Bob “Death to Flying Things” Ferguson, Bill Madlock, and Don Money
Trailing Ken Keltner, Kyle Seager, and Travis Fryman

Current career trajectory:
You can say 2017 was something of a revival for Zimmerman, but it really wasn’t. From May 8 through the end of the season, he posted a fairly pedestrian .269/.328/.486 line. Sure, that’s better than his 2014–2016 line, but it’s not one that makes us think he’s suddenly fighting for a spot among the game’s elite. He’ll be only 33 next season so stranger things have happened. Still, take away five weeks before it warmed up, and you aren’t remotely excited.

HoME Outlook:
Gary Sheffield and Jimmy Collins became HoMErs from about where Zimmerman is now. A bunch of others got to the Hall, but they generally fall into the categories of undeserving and just over the borderline. I don’t think Zimmerman is dead, just mostly dead.
—Miller

Kyle Seager

2017 BBREF WAR:
2.5

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller: 58
Ahead of Jimmy Dykes, Jeff Cirillo, and Richie Hebner.
Trailing Don Money, Ryan Zimmerman, and Bill Madlock.

Eric: 51
Ahead of Travis Fryman, Ryan Zimmerman, and Bob Ferguson
Trailing Troy Glaus, Billy Nash, and Ken “Keltner” List

Current career trajectory:
At 29, we know what Seager is. He’s a very strong defensive player with a one-to-two-win bat that relies on good power and slightly above average walk rates. He’s also incredibly durable. BBREF chalks him up for 27 WAR. That’s not impressive for a HoME third base candidate. Then again, Darrell Evans, Graig Nettles, Edgar Martinez earned fewer, and Paul Molitor just a couple more by the same age. The thing is that BBREF sees Seager as merely slightly above average defensively. But DRA sees him as a defensive star with 70 more defensive runs than BBREF shows. In other words, seven more wins’ worth of value. That gets him around 32–35 WAR, which puts him much closer to the range of strong candidates.

HoME Outlook: What’s most worrisome is Seager’s offense in 2017. His batting average tumbled to .249 (thanks, BABIP!), which drove his batting down to league-average levels despite the homers. If the downward trend continues, he’s done as a HoME candidate. If he stabilizes with even slightly above average offense and continues being an outstanding defender, he’s got a good shot at coming along the outside to break the tape. Something tells me it’s a long shot.
—Eric

Edwin Encarnacion

2017 BBREF WAR:
2.8

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller: 70
Ahead of Billy Werber, Eddie Foster, and Red Smith.
Trailing Terry Pendleton, Aramis Ramirez, and Harry Steinfeldt.

Eric: 72
Ahead of Gary Gaetti, Ken McMullen, and Edgardo Alfonzo
Trailing Terry Pendleton, Manny Machado, and Tom Burns

Current career trajectory:
It’s not hard to remember that Encarnacion was sort of nothing until he turned 29. What that means is that he’ll be 35 next year and isn’t a threat to put up huge numbers going forward. He has a real shot at 400 home runs though, which he can tell his grandkids.

HoME Outlook:
If he’s getting to the Hall of Fame, it’s likely he’s following the Ross Youngs, Chick Hafey, Freddie Lindstrom, Rick Ferrell path, which means he won’t deserve it. He’s a lot of fun to watch play, and I think I’d love being his teammate. Still, he’ll be largely forgotten a couple of years after he’s gone.
—Miller

Manny Machado

2017 BBREF WAR:
3.5

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller: 78
Ahead of Ken McMullen, Ossie Bluege, and Fred Lindstrom.
Trailing Jim Ray Hart, Eddie Yost, and Bob Bailey.

Eric: 70
Ahead of Tom Burns, Edwin Encarnacion, and Gary Gaetti
Trailing Richie Hebner, Eddie Foster, and Terry Pendleton

Current career trajectory: Despite a down year both offensively and defensively, Machado is one of the game’s prized young players. His closest BBREF comp is Adrian Beltre, which makes a lot of sense. Ron Santo is among his top ten age-based comps. Intuitively, this makes sense because Beltre and Santo started very early and were successful quickly at the hot corner. He’s no Mike Trout, but if the O’s manage to keep Machado around, he could be the new Brooks Robinson.

HoME Outlook: The average HoME third baseman since the war has 11 BBREF WAR by age 24. Manny Machado has 28. Only one HoME third baseman has done better, Eddie Mathews. In fact, he’s the only third baseman in baseball history to outperform Machado through age 24. Good news for Manny: The 3.4 WAR separating him from Mathews is less than the 22.7 WAR separating him from Dick Allen and George Davis. Here’s the top ten, well, eleven, but you’ll see:

1. Eddie Mathews: 31.4
2. Manny Machado: 28.0
3. Dick Allen: 22.7
4. George Davis: 22.7
5. George Brett: 22.1
6. Freddie Lindstrom: 21.3
7. John McGraw: 20
8. Evan Longoria: 19.9
9. Buddy Lewis: 19.9
10. David Wright: 19.3
11. Ron Santo: 19.3

Scratch out Lewis who lost his prime to the war, and you’ve got five HoMErs, three active players, two of whom are right on my borderline, one guy (McGraw) that would have been entirely defensible to elect based on his playing career, and one of the Hall of Fame’s worst selections, Freddie Lindstrom. Though clearly he was pretty good through age 24. That’s the kind of list that helps you recognize how great a young player is. Keep it up, Manny!
—Eric

If I may interject, Machado could be better than Brooks. If we give him 5.5 WAR for the next four seasons through age-28, a total he’s topped three times in his four healthy years, and then slowly regress him half a win per year until he’s down to 1 WAR at when he’s 37, I would rank him tenth ever at the position, a few slots ahead of Brooks. It’s a lot of speculation on my part, I know, but there’s a path in that direction.
—Miller

Martin Prado

2017 BBREF WAR:
0.1

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller: 92
Ahead of Howard Johnson, Mike Lowell, and Corey Koskie.
Trailing Jimmy Austin, Doug Rader, and Billy Shindle.

Eric: 88
Ahead of Wid Conroy, Doug Rader, and Jimmy Austin
Trailing Lee Tannehill, Billy Shindle, and Mike Lowell

Current career trajectory:
Prado might be today’s version of Tony Phillips, sort of, which speaks to just how much times have changed. Phillips was a far, far superior player. Prado will be “just” 34 in 2018, so he might have some time left to move up the ranks. Of course, his best days, which were of All-Star quality, are likely behind him.

HoME Outlook:
A number of underserving Hall of Famers turned their careers into one that got them into Cooperstown from basically where Prado is now. But so did Sam Rice and Jim O’Rourke. It’s possible Prado can find his way to an O’Rourke type of career, I suppose. Odds are quite long though.
—Miller

Nolan Arenado

2017 BBREF WAR:
7.2

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller: 82
Ahead of Edgardo Alfonzo, Jerry Denny, and Chase Headley
Trailing Fred Lindstrom, Ossie Bluege, and Ken McMullen.

Eric: 79
Ahead of Clete Boyer, Jim Ray Hart, and Jerry Denny
Trailing Eddie Yost, Bob Bailey, and Freddie Lindstrom

Current career trajectory:
If this guy played in New York or Chicago or Boston, everyone would know his name and lots and lots of people would buy his jersey. Instead, he’s on one of those boring teams out west that no one seems to bother much with, so he’s that guy who’s pretty good whose name you can’t quite remember. In 1962, Brooks Robinson finished 9^th in the MVP voting with a 6.1 WAR breakout season at age 25. He contributed 20 runs above average at the plate and another 18 in the field. That’s pretty much Arenado’s season every year. Only better. Actually, he’s improving. His walk rate has been increasing, and he’s hitting for higher and higher averages. All with the power you’d expect from a guy who in the last three years has led the NL in homers twice and doubles the third year. His WAR has increased every single year of his career. At 26, his career stats are comparable to a young Scott Rolen. Even if Arenado never improved on his 7.2 BBREF WAR season of 2017, he’s got a great start to what promises to be a fun career to watch.

HoME Outlook:
With 27 WAR through age 26, Arenado’s already in the range of our highest-quality HoME third base candidates at that same age. Where Manny Machado is exploring the thermosphere, maybe Arenado is just tooling around the stratosphere. Arenado, however, has an important advantage that few others have in the HoME voting. He’s born on my birthday.
—Eric

Kris Bryant

2017 BBREF WAR:
6.1

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller: 98
Ahead of Sammy Strang, Don Hoak, and Todd Zeile.
Trailing Casey Blake, Bill Mueller, and Corey Koskie.

Eric: 97
Ahead of Bill Mueller, Don Hoak, and Ed Charles
Trailing Corey Koski, Sammy Strang, and Casey Blake

Current career trajectory:
What’s not to love? Concern trolling about Bryant’s defense proved overblown, and he’s proven to be a good if not great defender, one hell of a hitter, and a gamer who rarely sits. And watch out for him next year. Although he took a very slight step down in OPS+ this year, he lowered his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate. The guess here is that he got a lot fewer pitches to hit this season and adapted well, taking his walks instead of selling out and going fishing. When a player’s background skills all point in a positive direction, it can’t be long before he goes hardcore on the league.

HoME Outlook:
Only time and injury can stop Kris Bryant. He’s been athletic enough to play around the diamond as part of Joe Maddon’s roving gang of gloves. So he’s not a guy who’s too slow to play the outfield but doesn’t hit enough to play first base. He could stay around a while. Already, he’s surpassed the HoME-average postwar third baseman through age 25 as he establishes a foundation for a run at internet immortality.
—Eric

Jose Ramirez

2017 BBREF WAR:
6.9

Who the heck is this Jose Ramirez who showed some sparkle at the plate last year and busted out all over in 2017? He was signed out of the Domincan as a teenager and reached the US minors at age 18. In five minor league seasons he hit a respectable 304/355/411. Nothing great, and nothing that presaged the game power he’s shown. He never slugged over .465 in any full minor league season. He hit all of 13 homers in 1539 career minor-league and winter league plate appearances. He first appeared with the Indians at age 20 and increasingly picked up playing time despite having the bat knocked out of his hands at 22. Yet the next year, he hit for an .825 OPS and continued to improve at all facets of hitting until this year happened.

Here’s one guess at what’s happened. At each of his minor league stops, he’s been, about three or four years younger than his league. In the Dominican winter leagues, he’s been about six years younger than the league’s average player. Some guys are polished and dominate from the get go. Others, though, learn through reps and develop skills as their body fills out and their body of experience grows. When a player is challenged repeatedly in leagues way over his age and experience level, he either sinks or swims. The Indians have perhaps seen enough progress in his approach that they’ve decided to keep challenging him. Now, 1539 minor and winter league plate appearances later, he’s consolidated his skills into a fringe-MVP level player who is just 24 years old.

If the skills persist, Ramirez will make up ground fast. Obviously he’s miles behind the likes of Machado. But think about this, Kris Bryant did his learning at UC San Diego then put in half the minor league and winter league plate appearances that Ramirez did. Ramirez might well not have much of a HoME outlook. What makes a player great is the ability to repeat excellence year after year. But when a player establishes a set of skills like Ramirez has in 2016–2017, we should sit up and take notice.
—Eric

Tune in again as we review shortstops on Friday.

Mid-Season Update, Infield

Last Wednesday, we looked at the active(ish) battery and their chances at the HoME. Today, using unadjusted first half WAR through June 30, we look at the infield. This is an area where we have some of the highest guys on their respective lists – guys like Pujols, Cano, and Beltre. It’s also where we have a shortstop position without anyone who projects to be a HoMEr. Luckily we have Seager, Correa, Lindor, Bogaerts, and others getting started. The next generation looks to be better than the current one.

Make sure you come back on Wednesday for the active outfield.

Albert Pujols

Preseason Rank: 5

2017 WAR: -1.1

Current Rank: 6, falling behind Jimmie Foxx

HoME Status: Seeing that negative number in front of his WAR hurts quite a bit. I suspect he’s going to finish as the sixth best first baseman now, rather than the fifth, by my numbers. Of course, very reasonable people can still rank him ahead of Foxx and Roger Connor. He’s going to the Hall, the HoME, and anywhere else he wants on the first ballot.

Miguel Cabrera

Preseason Rank: 18

2017 WAR: 0.5

Current Rank: 16, passing Rafael Palmeiro and Jim Thome

HoME Status: This can’t be the end. Can it? I don’t even think it should be the beginning of the end, but it’s at least that. His only plus skill is a bat, but it’s a bat like few we’ve seen, even if it is fading now. To me, watching his counting numbers is a lot of fun. He has a great chance to be the sixth guy ever to reach 2000 RBIs, assuming Albert gets there before he does. And forget homers, he has a fine chance to finish his career fifth all-time in doubles. Maybe even higher if he’s not in steep decline now. He’s easily in the HoME, jammed in with a bunch of easy calls at first base. Whether he can separate from the pack and get to the top-10 will be a matter of health and time.

Joey Votto

Preseason Rank: 36

2017 WAR: 3.7

Current Rank: 31, passing Jason Giambi, Tony Perez, Fred Tenney, Frank Chance, and Lance Berkman

HoME Status: Before this season, Votto seemed like the type of great player the Hall could ignore because he didn’t hit a ton of home runs. Luckily for Votto, this looks to be a career power year for the on base machine from the Reds. If he can repeat his first half, he’ll be a stone’s throw away from Mark McGwire, my lowest HoMEr first baseman. He won’t get there this season, and even if he doesn’t guarantee induction next year, he will eventually. His is a skill set that’s going to age just fine. I could see him finishing in the Frank Thomas/Pete Rose range. He’s going to the HoME.

Adrian Gonzalez

Preseason Rank: 48

2017 WAR: -0.6

Current Rank: 48

HoME Status: After you’re 35, it’s hard to recover from herniated discs and become great at sports again. Of course, you might say that Gonzalez already wasn’t great, and I couldn’t disagree. He had a short run of excellence and was a very nice player for a decade. That’s not what a HoMEr is.

Paul Goldschmidt

Preseason Rank: 70

2017 WAR: 4.0

Current Rank: 57, passing Hal Trosky, Kent Hrbek, Derrek Lee, Jim Bottomley, George H. Burns, Dave Orr, Steve Garvey, Cecil Cooper, George Scott, Jake Daubert, Frank McCormick, Stuffy McInnis, and Lu Blue

HoME Status: Let’s not confuse things. Goldschmidt isn’t close yet. Still, he’s one of the best players in the game, and with a repeat of the first half, he’ll move all the way up to #52 when the season ends, just behind Don Mattingly and Mark Grace. The guy is such a complete player that I think he’ll age well. I think he can make it.

Mike Napoli

Preseason Rank: 82

2017 WAR: -0.4

Current Rank: 82

HoME Status: Despite the 34 homers last year, Napoli hasn’t really been a big plus at the plate since 2014. The former catcher is now a plurality first baseman, and he’s at the point in his career where he’s going to jump from place to place looking for work. There’s no HoME in his future.

Carlos Santana

Preseason Rank: 88

2017 WAR: 0.2

Current Rank: 89, falling behind Anthony Rizzo

HoME Status: His only HoME-level skill is drawing walks. If you’re the Indians, you like having him because he hasn’t made any real money yet. A free agent at the end of the year, he has to be expecting the big payday. I wouldn’t pay him much. And he’s not going to the HoME.

Anthony Rizzo

Preseason Rank: 89

2017 WAR: 2.4

Current Rank: 86, passing Carlos Santana, Mo Vaughn, and Joe Kuhel

HoME Status: He’s a couple of years behind Goldschmidt, which isn’t such a bad thing since he’s a couple of years younger. Perhaps problematic for him is that I don’t think he’s quite the player Goldy is. Sure, he has more time for things to go right. He also has more time to show he’s just excellent, not immortal.

Freddie Freeman

Preseason Rank: 91

2017 WAR: 2.6

Current Rank: 90, passing Hal Chase

HoME Status: The Mike Trout injury got all of the tears from me, but the Freeman break of the left wrist was nearly as bad. Freeman was excellent last year and looked to be building early in this one before Aaron Loup struck him with a fastball. Maybe he’ll be great again next season at age 28. Whatever the case, he has a lot of ground to make up to eventually be considered for the HoME.

Robinson Cano

Preseason Rank: 9

2017 WAR: 2.2

Current Rank: 8, passing Jackie Robinson

HoME Status: He’s already signed, sealed, and delivered. Has been for years. The question now is one of his final landing place among the all-time greats. Well, moving up the list won’t be easy. If Cano repeats his first half five more times, that’ll get him up only one more place, past Bobby Grich. Then again, at that point, both Charlie Gehringer and Frankie Frisch would be within striking distance. The active guys who have a shot at the top-five at their positions are Albert Pujols, Adrian Beltre, Mike Trout, and Cano. That’s it.

Chase Utley

Preseason Rank: 22

2017 WAR: 0.3

Current Rank: 21, passing Hardy Richardson

HoME Status: I’ve read a couple of times recently the question of holding just a few months against someone after a great 15-year career. That’s something I was prepared to do to Chase Utley when it seemed his career was coming to an end in Philadelphia in 2015. That didn’t happen, and he’s been decent since joining the Dodgers, putting up more than 3 WAR. But what if he put up -3 WAR? To me, it all counts. Whether you put up -3 WAR in your fifth year or your fifteenth, it counts. And when making your case for the HoME, we don’t just ignore some of your MLB play if it doesn’t fit into our notion of who you are as a player. I like Utley, though I don’t love him. To me, he’s just over the line. Since I think Eric likes him more than I do though, I think his chances of getting into the HoME at some point are over 90%. Of course, he could play three more years and stink up the joint. In that case, all bets are off.

Ian Kinsler

Preseason Rank: 26

2017 WAR: 2.1

Current Rank: 24, passing Fred Dunlap and Bobby Doerr

HoME Status: Kinsler is a guy I’ve been tracking publicly for at least a year now as a future HoMEr. I’ve actually been on his case for longer than that. He just passed HoMEr Bobby Doerr, and he’s closing in on territory where we can’t avoid giving him a vote. I’m not sure he’ll get there in the second half, but I expect him to seal his case before 2018 ends. Just a quick stat for you: Kinsler has more 4+ WAR seasons with my conversions than Jackie Robinson.

Dustin Pedroia

Preseason Rank: 32

2017 WAR: 0.6

Current Rank: 31, passing Lonny Frey

HoME Status: A tough dude and a really talented player, it doesn’t seem like Pedroia is going to get there. When healthy, he’s still quite good, but guys who are 33, 5’9”, and play second base just aren’t as healthy as they need to be to put up the three or four more good seasons Pedroia will need. Even though Laser Show seems to me like he loves the game more than most players, I’m not betting on him making it to the HoME.

Ben Zobrist

Preseason Rank: 33

2017 WAR: 0.7

Current Rank: 33

HoME Status: Not getting to the majors until age 25 and not becoming a regular until age 28 have doomed Zobrist. I don’t want to really bet against the guy, and he’s only 36, but I can’t imagine too many more strong years in front of him. Even three more 3-win seasons wouldn’t get him into the HoME, so, yeah, I’ll bet against him.

Jose Altuve

Preseason Rank: 59

2017 WAR: 3.8

Current Rank: 59, probably because I started charting him too early; others I don’t chart are likely better

HoME Status: Guys at Altuve’s height just don’t make it in the majors. He’s already 13^th all-time in WAR for those who are 5’6” or shorter. Altuve will be 28 next year, and there are only ten players ever Altuve’s height or shorter who totaled 20+ WAR from age-28 on. He would have to reach Phil Rizzuto’s 30.6 WAR, second all-time for short dudes from age-28 on, to have even a prayer at the HoME. Yes, he’s an outstanding player right now, but his chances at the HoME are very long.

Adrian Beltre

Preseason Rank: 9

2017 WAR: 0.5

Current Rank: 9

HoME Status: If it wouldn’t disappoint him, I’d like something to happen that keeps him from getting to 3000 hits. Every deserving player who gets into the Hall without reaching one of the sure-thing milestones is a good thing. It seems like even the mainstream baseball media now think he belongs. It’s going to be tougher than I thought getting past Ron Santo, but I still put Beltre at about even money to best Paul Molitor, Chipper Jones, and Home Run Baker before he hangs ‘em up.

David Wright

Preseason Rank: 25

2017 WAR:  😦

Current Rank: 25

HoME Status: A little over a year ago I wrote a sad baseball obituary for David Wright. At just age 33 at the time, there’s no way he should have been done. But some bodies don’t hold up as well as others. Back in 2013, it seemed certain he’d be a future HoMEr. And hell, there’s still a shot. One year at 3.7 WAR puts him past Sal Bando by my numbers. And that’s how close it can be. That’s the difference between immortality and eventual obscurity for the greatest Met position player in franchise history.

Evan Longoria

Preseason Rank: 30

2017 WAR: 2.5

Current Rank: 28, passing Larry Gardner and Robin Ventura

HoME Status: One path to the HoME is a few years of greatness and then solid performances for about ten more. That’s the path Longoria hopes to take. David Wright is a cautionary tale of how a third baseman, or any player, could just break down though. Give Longoria a few more years, and he might just prove his fans of 2009-2011 right. I think he has an excellent shot of eventually making the HoME. It’ll be about health.

Josh Donaldson

Preseason Rank: 52

2017 WAR: 1.3

Current Rank: 51, passing Denny Lyons

HoME Status: It’s always disappointing to me when I remind myself of the age of someone who’s been so good and it’s not a small enough number. Since Jackie Robinson’s first season, only Donaldson, Jackie, and fourteen others have had four consecutive years at 7+ WAR. Chase Utley isn’t 100% guaranteed entry into the HoME. All of the others, aside from Donaldson, are. A calf injury held him back in the first half of the year. If his second half rebounds to the level we’ve seen since 2013, I might reconsider his status. As of now, I think it’s going to be next to impossible.

Ryan Zimmerman

Preseason Rank: 57

2017 WAR: 2.4

Current Rank: 54, passing Jimmy Dykes, Don Money, and Bill Madlock

HoME Status: Not long ago, I wrote about the April 2017 NL Player of the Month, Ryan Zimmerman. At that time I asked if we should more likely trust the month of the three years where he put up a grand total of 0.0 WAR. Through May 6 of this year he put up a line of .453/.475/.907. Since then, it’s been a very mediocre .277/.318/.446. If you’re wondering what it was the last three years, wonder no more: .242/.300/.420. Since June 5, he’s been at .253/.277/.418. Trust the last three years, not a random month. Zimmerman is not going to the HoME.

Kyle Seager

Preseason Rank: 61

2017 WAR: 1.0

Current Rank: 58, passing George Kell, Richie Hebner, and Jeff Cirillo

HoME Status: Corey’s big brother is a heck of a player, albeit one who’s struggling in 2017. He’s the kind of guy who could keep hitting enough for a while, not long enough to get into the HoME though.

Manny Machado

Preseason Rank: 73

2017 WAR: 1.1

Current Rank: 72, passing Jerry Denny

HoME Status: If you want a quick answer as to what’s happened to Manny Machado’s bat, take a look at his yearly BABIP: .293, .322, .317, .297, .309, .226. Balls will start falling. The BABIP will tend to equilibrium. While it’s true that he is swinging and missing more than he has in the past, isn’t everyone? He’s not swinging at more first pitches. He’s not swinging at more bad pitches. Assuming he doesn’t press, he’ll start looking better soon enough. And I expect he’ll get what looks like it can become a HoME-worthy career back on track.

Edwin Encarnacion

Preseason Rank: 74

2017 WAR: 1.2

Current Rank: 73, passing Jerry Denny

HoME Status: Because he got good too late, he stands very little shot of getting into the HoME. He’s still a fun hitter to watch and a dangerous one to face.

Chase Headley

Preseason Rank: 76

2017 WAR: 0.7

Current Rank: 76

HoME Status: Headley should consider himself lucky to even make my third base chart. He has absolutely no chance at the HoME.

Troy Tulowitzki

Preseason Rank: 40

2017 WAR: 0.1

Current Rank: 40

HoME Status: He’s 32 years old now. He hasn’t been a good hitter since 2014, and he hasn’t played in 140+ games since 2011. For a guy with four seasons over 6 WAR and another two over 5 WAR, it’s pretty shocking that Tulo is a relative long shot at HoME induction. That’s in part because I think Rfield overrates his defense. Oh, and he just doesn’t play enough. In 2014, I’d have put him at 80% to get in. Now, I think he’s less than 20%.

Hanley Ramirez

Preseason Rank: 43

2017 WAR: 0.2

Current Rank: 43

HoME Status: There really isn’t much to see here. At his best, he was all hit and no field. Now he’s some hit and no field. Upon retirement, he won’t be worthy of HoME consideration.

Jose Reyes

Preseason Rank: 60

2017 WAR: -0.8

Current Rank: 60

HoME Status: Middle infielders don’t tend to age well. Reyes has been below replacement level since his age-31 season in 2014. He’s only two steals away from 500, so that’s something he could hang his hat on. HoME induction isn’t happening.

Elvis Andrus

Preseason Rank: 67

2017 WAR: 2.4

Current Rank: 66, passing Frank Crosetti

HoME Status: He doesn’t field enough to be a great shortstop, and he doesn’t hit enough to play anywhere else. To his credit though, he has turned himself into a league average hitter over the past year and a half. He would need to become far above average in a hurry to have a shot at the HoME.

Just two days until the active outfield is up.

Miller

2016 Update, Third Base

As you probably know, the hot corner isn’t all that hot when it comes to the Hall of Fame. If you don’t call Paul Molitor a third baseman, and I don’t think you should, there are only nine players ever at the position both in the Hall and the HoME. They only have three who we don’t, but we have seven who they don’t. That’s if you consider Tommy Leach a third baseman, which you really don’t have to.

We’re nearly certain there’s an active who’s going to get into both. Otherwise, everyone on this list is still trying to make their case, hoping their nearly complete case is enough, or just getting work on a career we’ll be able to review better in about a decade.

Today’s post is our third in the series. Please check out other positions (1B, 2B), and check back here over the next three weeks to see your favorites rated.

Adrian Beltre
2016 BBREF WAR:
6.4

Rank at the position after 2015:
Miller: 13
Eric: 13 (15 if you count Paul Molitor and Edgar Martinez as third basemen)

Rank at the position after 2016:
Miller: 9
Eric: 8 (9 if you count Paul Molitor)

Who’d he pass in 2016?
Miller: Ken Boyer, Buddy Bell, Brooks Robinson, and Paul Molitor are all now behind Beltre.
Eric: Graig Nettles, Bell, Boyer, Edgar Martinez, Brooksie, and Deacon White

Who’s next with the same season in 2017?
Miller: If he does this again, Chipper Jones, Deacon White, and Home Run Baker will be behind too.
Eric: Baker and Chipper

Current career trajectory:
I think he’ll pass Jones, White, Baker, and Ron Santo. Wade Boggs, George Brett, and those above them are just too far away. Even with two more years like this one, they’re too far away. That’s how good Wade Boggs was.

HoME Outlook:
He’s going. He’s a no-brainer. The good news about Beltre’s career is that so many people are talking about Beltre as a Hall of Famer that he’s even going to go when the time comes. If you don’t believe me, just look at his career hit totals. He’s 58 shy of 3000, and he had 175 this past year. I don’t know that Beltre is going to put up another 5-win season. But I do know he hasn’t slowed at age 37. Even though he shouldn’t need the hits, those hits will guarantee his induction. By the way, he’s just 55 homers shy of 500. There’s a real shot he gets there as well. What a spectacular player!

David Wright
2016 BBREF WAR:
-0.2

Rank at the position after 2015:
Miller: 25
Eric: 21

Rank at the position after 2016:
Miller: 25
Eric: 21

Who’d he pass in 2016?
Miller: Not a soul
Eric: No one

Who’s next with the same season in 2017?
Miller: He’d just barely edge Ron Cey.
Eric: Will there be a next season?

Current career trajectory:
It seems as though David Wright’s career teeters on the brink of its end. Injuries have limited his playing time and sapped his abilities. Even if he returned to something like full health in 2017, we have no way of knowing what kind of player he would be. Nor how long his body will hold up in the long run. Given that, it’s hard to even say he’d be an average player over the next couple-few years.

HoME Outlook:
Being an average player for two close to full years could push Wright up just enough to slide across the in/out line. He’s this close now. Sal Bando, the last third baseman in the door, has 46.6 CHEWS. Wright has 46.0. The pair have essentially the same peak and prime, so it’s really a question of adding some bulk. Just four WAR could make a huge difference because he’s on the cusp. Thing is, we bypassed several other candidates with more or similar CHEWS because of considerations such as an overstocked era (John McGraw, who is ultimately a combo candidate anyway), questions about the statistical accurately reflecting the player’s contribution (Ned Williamson), and a small preference for the 1970s over the 1910s (Bando over Heinie Groh). It wouldn’t be crazy for us to pick Wright for a similar reason over Groh, too, even if he never added any value. But even just a little bit of ballast will help him a lot. I, for one, am not holding my breath.

Evan Longoria
2016 BBREF WAR:
3.8

Rank at the position after 2015:
Miller: 32
Eric: 26

Rank at the position after 2016:
Miller: 27
Eric: 23

Who’d he pass in 2016?
Miller: Matt Williams, Lave Cross, Larry Gardner, Robin Ventura, and Toby Harrah are done.
Eric: Toby Harrah, Robin Ventura, Bob Elliot

Who’s next with the same season in 2017?
Miller: Bob Elliott, David Wright, and Ron Cey would also fall behind Longoria with another year like this.
Eric: Ron Cey, David Wright, Heinie Groh, and maybe even Sal Bando

Current career trajectory:
Longoria just turned 31. Some guys like him have plenty of time left, while others are nearing the end. His last three years haven’t been all that special, just 3.92 per season on average. It would seem this is Longoria’s new level. It’s still a fine level. Then again, there’s still work for Longoria to do.

HoME Outlook:
It’s looking good. Very good. As of today, Longoria is the 27^th best third baseman ever by MAPES. Passing seven more guys gets him into the HoME. He would get there with only two more 4-WAR seasons, and he’s still signed for six more years. I have a hard time believing that he won’t get where he needs to be. With six years at 3.5, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0, 1.5, and 1.0 WAR he’s well above Sal Bando and in 21^st place at the position. Yeah, I’d say he’s going to get there.

Ryan Zimmerman
2016 BBREF WAR:
-1.1

Rank at the position after 2015:
Miller: 54
Eric: 54

Rank at the position after 2016:
Miller: 56
Eric: 58

Who’d he pass in 2016?
Miller: He slid behind Bill Madlock and Don Money.
Eric: Wrong question, he got passed.

Who’s next with the same season in 2017?
Miller: Jimmy Dykes will get by.
Eric: More like who will pass him?

Current career trajectory:
This might be it for Zimmerman. He’s fork tender.

HoME Outlook:
We hope he’ll enjoy spending quality time reading the plaques we’ve created.

Josh Donaldson
2016 BBREF WAR:
7.4

Rank at the position after 2015:
Miller: 71
Eric: 78

Rank at the position after 2016:
Miller: 52
Eric: 53

Who’d he pass in 2016?
Miller: There’s quite a long list: Edgardo Alfonzo, Fred Lindstrom, Ken McMullen, Eddie Yost, Bob Bailey, Aramis Ramirez, Terry Pendleton, Harry Steinfeldt, Bob Ferguson, Carney Lansford, George Kell, Richie Hebner, Jeff Cirillo, Jimmy Dykes, Don Money, Bill Madlock, Ryan Zimmerman, and Willie Kamm.
Eric: All those guys except Madlock plus Lee Tannehill, Jerry Denny, Ossie Bluege, Jim Ray Hart, Clete Boyer, Gary Gaetti, Tom Burns, Eddie Foster, Billy Werber, and Red Smith. He had a big year.

Who’s next with the same season in 2017?
Miller: If he puts one more of these, which I think is quite possible, he’ll pass Denny Lyons, Ken Keltner, Troy Glaus, Gary Gaetti, Bobby Bonilla, Heinie Zimmerman, Billy Nash, Bill Joyce, Arlie Latham, Doug DeCinces, Art Devlin, and Al Rosen. With another year like this one Donaldson will vault from 70^th a year ago to 40^th a year from now.
Eric: Pie Traynor

Current career trajectory:
I don’t know. He’s 30 now. He did increase his walk rate this year. And he kept his power near last season’s career best level. As sometimes happens when players age, he’s adding a bit of offense and regressing in the field.

HoME Outlook:
Chances are slim. He just got started too late. On the other hand, he’s averaged 7.33 WAR during his four years as a regular. If he can do that for three more seasons, he’ll reach HoME level. I don’t think he’ll do that from age 31-33, but it’s certainly possible.

Kyle Seager
2016 BBREF WAR:
6.9

Rank at the position after 2015:
Miller: 78
Eric: 87

Rank at the position after 2016:
Miller: 58
Eric: 65

Who’d he pass in 2016?
Miller: Mike Lowell, Clete Boyer, Jerry Denny, Edgardo Alfonzo, Fred Lindstrom, Ken McMullen, Eddie Yost, Bob Bailey, Aramis Ramirez, Terry Pendleton, Harry Steinfeldt, Bob Ferguson, Carney Lansford, George Kell, Richie Hebner, and Jeff Cirillo
Eric: About two-thirds of the guys that Donaldson passed plus a few lower-ranked guys headlined by HoJo and Mike Lowell.

Who’s next with the same season in 2017?
Miller: Jimmy Dykes, Ryan Zimmerman, Don Money, Bill Madlock, Willie Kamm, Denny Lyons, Ken Keltner, Troy Glaus, Gary Gaetti, Bobby Bonilla, Heinie Zimmerman, Billy Nash Bill Joyce, Arlie Latham, Doug DeCinces, Art Devlin, and Al Rosen.
Eric: Troy Glaus, Bobby Bonilla, guys like that.

Current career trajectory:
Seager is dead in the middle of his peak seasons. Third base aging curves, however, are not like other positions. At the hot corner, guys reach the cliff faster than elsewhere. Let’s say that Seager maintains a 7-win pace through age 30, declines a win a year for three years, then falls off a two-win cliff. He’d be done at 37 with about 60 WAR to his name. Then again, that’s probably a very generous scenario. It’s more likely that he’s a 6-win player the next two years then follows our little made-up aging curve. In that case, he ends up exactly like David Wright.

HoME Outlook:
His outlook isn’t too bad when you stop to think about how little press he gets. Seager is something of a hidden star up there in the Northwest. It’s still early enough for him to continue increasing in annual value…or to snap a femur and lose his mobility. But he’s got the foundation of an intriguing, excellent career.

Edwin Encarnacion
2016 BBREF WAR:
3.7

Rank at the position after 2015:
Miller: Not charted, maybe 80-90
Eric: Unranked

Rank at the position after 2016:
Miller: 74
Eric: 81

Who’d he pass in 2016?
Miller: I’m not exactly sure. This is the first time I’ve charted Encarnacion. His chart debut places him in 74^th place at the position, just a shade ahead of Clete Boyer.
Eric: First time for me, too

Who’s next with the same season in 2017?
Miller: He would move all the way up to 67^th. Jerry Denny, Edgardo Alfonzo, and Hall of Famer Freddie Lindstrom would be behind him.
Eric: He could pass 8 to 10 guys and nuzzle up to Gary Gaetti.

Current career trajectory:
Maybe he’ll sign with the Red Sox and disappoint because he’s not David Ortiz?

HoME Outlook:
He basically has no prayer. He’s 33 and has only played like and All Star once or twice.

Manny Machado
2016 BBREF WAR:
6.7

Rank at the position after 2015:
Miller: Not on the board yet, yet in a virtual tie with Pinky Higgins who shouldn’t be on the board.
Eric: Juuuuust inside the top 100

Rank at the position after 2016:
Miller: 72
Eric: 80

Who’d he pass in 2016?
Miller: Mike Lowell, Chase Headley, Clete Boyer, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jerry Denny
Eric: Enough unimportant players to get to 80.

Who’s next with the same season in 2017?
Miller: Edgardo Alfonzo, Fred Lindstrom, Ken McMullen, Eddie Yost, Bob Bailey, Aramis Ramirez, Terry Pendleton, Harry Steinfeldt, Bob Ferguson, Carney Lansford, George Kell, Richie Hebner, Jeff Cirillo, and Jimmy Dykes.
Eric: He’d end up right about where Donaldson is now.

Current career trajectory:
The sky’s the limit for this kid. He has 105 homers through age 23 and plays Brooksian defense at third base. Hell, he might be the O’s starting shortstop soon. Adrian Beltre is his number one BBREF comp through age 23.

HoME Outlook:
While the case of Jose Fernandez shows us never to assume anything, Machado has shown us nothing to think that he won’t have a plaque in the Hall and HoME in about 25 or so years.

Surprise Hall of Famers Are Living Among Us

It’s easy to predict Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera will achieve baseball’s highest honor. But as he entered his thirties, who would have predict that for Ozzie Smith? Seeking surprise candidates of just this sort is what we’re going to do in this piece (on hitters) and a follow up on pitchers.

David Schoenfield’s recent article “Which Active Players Are Hall of Famers” sparked a lively discussion at Baseball Think Factory, in turn inspiring this piece. In comment 13, Davo’s Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos suggested that someone in the league will surprise us just like Paul Molitor did on the way to Cooperstown. No, wait, Paul Molitor? Of the 3,000 hits? Of the 70+ Wins Above Replacement? What’s the surprise?

Through age 29, Molitor accumulated only 30 WAR—nothing you’d hang a Hall of fame prediction on. Injuries cost him 300 to 400 games. He was a first-round pick with Hall of Fame talent but little ability to stay on the field. He put it together in his early 30s, but after more injuries in 1987 and 1990, the Brewers finally made him a DH/first baseman, allowing him to chase down 3,000 hits. Without a huge second decade, Molitor is just another underachiever. Instead, he’s a surprising Hall of Famer.

Surprise, surprise, surprise!

So I looked for players like Molitor. Here were my criteria:

• Career took place after World War II
• Pre-30 total under 40 WAR
• Pre-30 WAR total representing at most 40% of career total.

Only four current Hall members fit this bill, so I added four more players who Miller and I see as credible candidates. All statistics are adjusted to a 162-game schedule.

                DEBUT  PRE 30  PRE 30  POST 30  30/31/32    DRAFT
NAME             AGE     PA     WAR     WAR       WAR       ROUND
===================================================================
Roberto Clemente 20    5896     38.2    57.3   7.1/8.2/8.9   ---
Jose Cruz        22    2943     15.3    40.0   5.3/4.6/4.7   ---
Jim Edmonds      23    2951     20.4    37.9   6.3/5.8/6.7     7  
Jeff Kent        24    3151     16.0    40.7   4.4/3.5/7.2    20
Edgar Martinez   24    2086     18.9    51.8   0.2/4.5/7.9   ---
Paul Molitor     21    4706     30.0    47.5   6.0/5.2/5.7     1
Ozzie Smith      23    4453     24.3    51.8   6.4/5.6/6.4     4
Willie Stargell  22    3562     18.5    39.2   2.5/7.9/4.1    ---
-------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE         22.4   3617     22.4    45.1   4.8/5.5/6.3     8
MEDIAN          22.5   3257     19.7    43.3   5.7/5.4/6.6     7

It’s a fairly eclectic group. But they do (mostly) share three traits:

1. an up and down pattern in their twenties
2. at least one All-Star type season before their 30^th birthday (a season of 5+ WAR)
3. they began their thirties with a bang.

We won’t find that everyone meets all the averages in the table or the three traits above, but let’s sift through them to see what we can find.

Less surprising than they used to be

What players are already in the midst of a late-career kick that will turn them into surprise Hall of Fame candidates? Let’s start with those already well into their thirties.

              DEBUT  2014   PRE 30  PRE 30  POST 30  30/31/32    DRAFT
NAME           AGE    AGE     PA     WAR     WAR       WAR       ROUND
=======================================================================
Jose Bautista  23     33      2721    6.9    21.8   8.1/3.5/4.2    20
Adrian Beltre  19     35      5788   35.6    36.6   3.3/7.8/5.8   ---
Matt Holliday  24     34      3638   23.7    20.9   5.9/3.9/4.0     7
Ian Kinsler    24     32      3446   27.7    12.4   2.4/4.5/5.5    17
David Ortiz    21     38      3584   15.4    32.2   5.7/6.4/1.7   ---
Ben Zobrist    25     33      1784   12.4    24.2   8.7/5.7/4.8     6  

• Jose Bautista: First All-Star level season at 29 and has raked since. Injuries have sapped late-peak value, and with so little to start from, he’s unlikely to have enough of a career to be a compelling candidate.
• Adrian Beltre: Simply, he’s on the Clemente path to the Hall.
• Matt Holiday: Normal decline off a late start: a consistent 3 to 5 WAR player who lately has dropped into the 3 to 4 WAR range. Nothing to see here.
• Ian Kinsler: Not as far down the line as these other guys, but maintaining several years of All-Star production would make him a very interesting stealth candidate.
• David Ortiz: Twins monkeyed around with him early on, but a beast since. Hall voters will love his clutchy narrative of Jeteresque proportions. But will they ding him for an alleged positive test?
• Ben Zobrist: The anti-Ortiz. Quiet, overlookable, value from his versatility, flexibility, and subtle batting skills. Long way to go and is clearly coming off his tremendous peak, but he’s played at an All-Star level for six straight seasons. Needs three or four more to sniff the borderline of the Hall.

Beltre and Ortiz are the plays here, but Kinsler and Zobrist are interesting.

About to surprise us?

Here are some fellows between 29 and 31 resembling our profile or already showing signs of a surprise candidacy.

               DEBUT  2014   PRE 30  PRE 30  POST 30  30/31/32    DRAFT
NAME            AGE    AGE     PA     WAR     WAR       WAR       ROUND
=======================================================================
Melky Cabrera    20     29     4857    17.2    ---         ---      ---  
Shin-Soo Choo    22     31     2965    21.3    4.3     4.2/0.1/---  --- 
Edwin Encarncion 22     31     3722    11.5    7.8     4.2/3.6/---   9
Brett Gardner    24     30     2228    19.2    4.0     4.0/---/---   3
Alex Gordon      23     30     3753    22.0    6.6     6.6/---/---   1
Matt Kemp        21     29     4496    21.3    ---         ---       6
Howie Kendrick   22     30     3745    22.2    5.4     5.4/---/---  10 
Russell Martin    24     23     3674    20.3    9.8     4.3/5.5/---  17
Yadier Molina    21     31     4060    21.0    5.3     4.3/1.0/---   4
Hanley Ramirez   21     30     4760    32.9    3.5     3.5/---/---  --- 

• Put your money on Alex Gordon. An athletic, former first-rounder who struggled early and was mismanaged, but after a position switch, has settled in as an excellent player.
• Russell Martin is making his run. Catcher WAR totals are lower, so those two post-29 seasons are All-Star level years. The question will be durability as a backstop.
• Ditto Yadier Molina, who is returning from injuries that cost him 50 games in 2014 but was an MVP candidate in 2013.
• Hanley Ramirez, former top prospect and three-time All-Star has had the injury bug. Moving to left field, the DH league, and an organization accustomed to dealing with big personalities may help him stay in the lineup and produce consistently.
• Brett Gardner found power at age 30, and he’s played at a near-MVP level before. Had a long break-in period to the Yankees’ veteran-laden rosters, lost a year to injury, and shuttled between left field and center field. A poor man’s Molitor.

On the other end, Matt Kemp’s lost the ability to play the outfield effectively and is playing in a more spacious park, and he’s shown a propensity for injury…. The outlook ain’t great among the tweeners. Howie Kendrick didn’t play at an All-Star level before age 30 (though close in 2011). Unless he follows up 2014 with an All-Star season in 2015, I’ll be skeptical because the Jeff Kent path is fairly rare…. Melky Cabrera played like an All-Star once, and and got busted that year for PEDs, curtailing his value. We’ll see…. Edwin Encarnacion looks a lot like teammate Jose Bautista, but he has yet to climb to the heights Joey Bats has. Tick, tick, tick…. Finally, Shin-Soo Choo’s injury-plagued 2014 makes 2015 a question mark, but he needs to be better than he’s ever been to get on the surprise-candidate pathway.

Some other players just miss, including Gardner clone Jacoby Ellsbury, and could be on this list with a strong 2015.

Surprise me!

It’s silly to predict anything for guys under 26, but what about the 26–28 crowd? Among the many we could choose from, here’s some with that surprise-candidate feeling.

               DEBUT  2014   PRE 30  PRE 30  DRAFT
NAME            AGE    AGE     PA     WAR    ROUND
===================================================
Michael Brantley 22     27    2838    13.2     7
Jay Bruce        21     27    3951    14.3     1 
Lorenzo Cain     24     28    1369    12.2    17
Matt Carpenter   25     28    1785     9.9    13
Josh Donaldson   24     28    1691    16.6     1 
Brian Dozier     25     27    1670     9.6     8
Todd Frazier     25     28    1846    10.9     1
Carlos Gomez     21     28    3364    21.8    ---
Carlos Gonzalez  22     28    3107    18.7    ---
Austin Jackson   23     27    3230    20.3     8
Adam Jones       20     28    4487    23.9     1
Jason Kipnis     24     27    2035    11.8     2
Jonathan Lucroy  24     28    2346    15.3     3      
Justin Upton     19     26    4314    20.0     1

In the interest of brevity, just my top five.

• Josh Donaldson: From number-one-pick bust to MVP-level player in a hurry. If the pixie dust doesn’t wear off, his thirties will be fun to watch.
• Carlos Gomez: Emerged as MVP candidate at 27. At 28 was merely All-Star level. It’s mostly about the glove, but his bat went from a negative to a positive in short order. The changes appear to be real. He’s squaring up the ball more often and hitting it hard in the air. His groundball rates have plunged, and his line drive rate has spiked. If he can hang onto his speed and glove to go with the newly found bat, there’s a lot of opportunity for special seasons.
• Carlos Gonzalez: If he’s traded as rumored, it could be the best thing for the injury-riddled outfielder. Colorado is no place to try to stay healthy, but when he has been healthy, he produces. Free Cargo!
• Austin Jackson: Has had seasons where he’s hit well, run the bases well, and fielded well, but never all at once. If Jackson puts it all together, his thirties will feature lots of All-Star seasons.
• Jonathan Lucroy: Like many catchers, Lucroy’s bat developed later than his glove. Strikeout rates have decreased every year since 2011, walk rates and percentage of hits for extra bases have risen every year of his career. A well regarded backstop with improving offense: we’re going to see a lot of him during July exhibition games.

Each generation sees two or three surprise-candidate hitters. It looks like Beltre and Ortiz are now treading this unusual and difficult path to glory. Gordon, Martin, Molina, Ramirez, and Gardner may be starting down it. Donaldson, Gomez, Gonzalez, Jackson, and Lucroy are approaching and hoping the future is better than the past. As likely as not, someone I haven’t mentioned will be the guy. That’s how surprises work, right?

Watch out next time for pitchers!

—Eric