Managers

2019 HoME Update: Managers

We’ve now rolled out nine posts updating the HoMEbound status of active players at each position (C 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF P). Now let’s turn to the dugout. About 100 years ago, I devised a little junk stat that helps sift through managers. You can learn about it in this three–part series.

I finally got around to updating for the 2018 and 2019 seasons so that we might have a look at whether any managers have gained ground on those already enshrined. Let’s have a go at it, examining skippers with 1,000 or more games managed entering the 2020 season. All these calculations compare our current crop of managers with 1,000 games to all 1,000-game managers across history.

Dusty Baker

• Career Manager Score: 8.3
• Peak Manager Score: 15.5
• Record: 1863-1636, .532
• Postseason: 0 titles (0.7 fewer than expected), 1 World Series appearance (1.7 fewer than expected), 9 playoff appearances (3.3 more than expected)
• Pythagenpat: +28
• Expected: +92

I’m including Dusty here despite his not having managed since our last update, because having reached the age of 70, he’ll be eligible for inclusion on the next Today’s Game committee ballot. Baker’s resume is really weird. His record is a little better than Dick Williams’, but he lacks Williams’ postseason success. Yet Baker’s teams made the playoffs frequently. His performance against Pythag is better than Leo Durocher’s, but is also about the same as Ralph Houk’s. He wasn’t quite as good a turnaround artist as Billy Martin (who was +114), but he’s better at it than Bill McKechnie (+80). Generally, an 8.3/15.5 career/peak manager-score profile plays like a HoMEr. Witness Leo the Lip (8.2/14.3), Whitey Herzog (4.7/11.8), and Williams (7.5/13.4). Baker seems like a formidable candidate, and yet, without even one title, it’ll be hard to argue for him.

Bud Black

• Career Manager Score: -5.1
• Peak Manager Score: -4.9
• Record: 898-951, .486
• Postseason: 0 titles (0.4 fewer than expected), 0 World Series appearances ( 1.6 fewer than expected), 3 playoff appearances (0.7 fewer than expected)
• Pythagenpat: +2
• Expected: -15

Black’s career so far looks something like John McNamara’ or Jim Fregosi’s. I suspect Black tends to have good rapport with his front offices because he is a slightly below-average manager overall. Not bad enough that he’s easily jettisoned, but spotty enough that were he a jerk he’d be shown the door more quickly.

Bruce Bochy

• Career Manager Score: 8.6
• Peak Manager Score: 18.2
• Record: 2003-2029, .497
• Postseason: 3 titles (2.2 more than expected), 4 World Series appearance (0.7 more than expected), 8 playoff appearances (0.6 more than expected)
• Pythagenpat: +19
• Expected: +13

Presuming his retirement is for keeps, Bochy will cruise into the Hall of Fame. No manager with three world championships is on the outside. You may have noticed that his manager scores closely resemble Dusty Baker’s. Were we to swap Bochy’s postseason success with Baker’s lack, the resulting Frankenmanager would look something like a hybrid of Earl Weaver and Bill McKechnie—one hell of a candidate. But in reality, the two are sort of opposites. Bochy’s case rests just about entirely on his postseason excellence, while Baker’s rests almost entirely on his regular season excellence. Is Bochy the best manager with a sub-.500 record? No, that’s Connie Mack, although Mack’s case is unique and perhaps shouldn’t be compared to anyone’s. But he is the best in the group other than Mack. Other famous retired managers with below average records over more than 2,000 decisions include Bucky Harris (3.0 manager score), Tom Kelly (-0.9), Gene Mauch (-1.7), Art Howe (-1.8), Chuck Tanner (-2.6), Jimmy Dykes (-3.8), Frank Robinson (-4.2), Bill Rigney (-4.3), Terry Collins (-4.5), Lou Boudreau (-4.6), John McNamara (-5.0), Jim Fregosi (-6.7), and Phil Garner (-7.8). You can see the influence that winning championships has on Manager Scores, but by the same token, Bucky Harris is in the Hall of Fame in large part for winning that pair of titles. Bruce Bochy managed very, very well in the core seasons that define his argument for getting into the Hall and the HoME. In his ten best years, he was a decent +28 against Pythagenpat but a whopping +102 versus expected wins. That’s where he shines. The rest of it? Well, maybe he could have left San Diego a little earlier.

Terry Collins

• Career Manager Score: -4.5
• Peak Manager Score: -4.6
• Record: 995-1017, .495
• Postseason: 0 titles (0.4 fewer than expected), 1 World Series appearance (0.4 fewer than expected), 2 playoff appearances (1.8 fewer than expected)
• Pythagenpat: -2
• Expected: -13

He’s 70 and is eligible for consideration without agonizing through the five-year waiting period. No reason for him to fret though, because with his managerial record the outcome is assured.

Terry Francona

• Career Manager Score: 9.2
• Peak Manager Score: 18.0
• Record: 1665-1412, .541
• Postseason: 2 titles (1.4 more than expected), 3 World Series appearances (0.9 more than expected), 9 playoff appearances (3.4 more than expected)
• Pythagenpat: +16
• Expected: +70

If I were Tito, I’d be wondering whether I should continue managing in Cleveland. It looks like Larry Dolan wants to sell off anything useful on the roster and pocket the revenue-sharing income. Man, being a rich, old white guy seems like a license to print money. Anyway, Francona’s about to see his stock drop a bit as the Indians run away from a division title that’s theirs to take if only they’d spend a little to get a cromulent outfield. Still, his current record is really good and probably already enough to get him over the HoME line. It’s really a question of whether he can win that third championship, thereby guaranteeing his admittance to the Coop. Though, the narrative that comes with winning the Bosox’ first title probably carries the day.

Ron Gardenhire

• Career Manager Score: -3.9
• Peak Manager Score: 3.7
• Record: 1179-1251, .485
• Postseason: 0 titles (0.5 fewer than expected), 0 World Series appearances (1.4 fewer than expected), 6 playoff appearances (1.5 more than expected)
• Pythagenpat: +7
• Expected: -25

I don’t know how the Tigers talked Gardenhire into managing for them. He was a slightly above average skipper before the Bengals, and since has dropped below par. His inability to break through the Yankees in the playoffs forever haunts his resume. But going 47-114 in 2019, well, that…I don’t even know what to do about that. Since joining the big cats, he’s 111-212, a Buddy Bell-like .344 winning percentage. Worse yet, he’s been -9 against Pythag and an amazing -35 against expected wins these past two years. Is there any way he digs out of this? I doubt it because, did you ever notice how rebuilding teams go a certain distance with a manager then dump him in favor of someone new right when the team is ready to blossom? Happens more than you might think.

John Gibbons

• Career Manager Score: -5.4
• Peak Manager Score: -8.4
• Record: 796-786, .503
• Postseason: 0 titles (0.4 fewer than expected), 0 World Series appearance (1.2 fewer than expected), 2 playoff appearances (1.4 fewer than expected)
• Pythagenpat: -14
• Expected: 0

The Jays made the ALCS under Gibbons’ watch, but one wonders how much he helped. For a team with legit hopes in the mid-late 2010s, they didn’t do themselves any favors in the dugout. Put Buck Showalter in charge of this club, and I wonder what might have been.

Joe Girardi

• Career Manager Score: 8.9
• Peak Manager Score: 8.7
• Record: 997-785, .559
• Postseason: 1 titles (0.6 more than expected), 1 World Series appearances (0.3 fewer than expected), 6 playoff appearance (2.6 more than expected)
• Pythagenpat: 34
• Expected: 48

Girardi hasn’t managed since 2017, but now that he’s hooked on with the Phillies, we can take another look at him. Girardi appears to be an excellent manager. He probably contributes a lot in the dugout given +34 wins versus Pythagenpat, and despite playing for the team with the highest annual expectations in the big leagues, he managed to win 48 more than we’d have expected. His playoff record is very good, and so is his winning percentage. Girardi brought along some younger players and got very good work out of his veteran charges. He managed his roster and his bullpen well overall. Now looking forward, he arrives on a Phillies team that needs precisely the kinds of skills and experiences he brings. They were a .500 team last year with superstars in Aaron Nola and Bryce Harper, a bunch of positive if not wowee-zowee contributors, and the makings of an excellent bullpen. He needs to find a real centerfielder, transition Jean Segura to second base, and patch together the 700 starter innings that Nola doesn’t pitch. In other words, stuff Girardi is good at. Here’s where the Phils make out. Say that Girardi whips his charges to being a true-talent 86-win team. If his managerial abilities can also eke out a few wins above Pythagenpat, they can credibly contend for a playoff spot. Of course, contending for the Wild Card play-in game isn’t what Andy MacPhail and Matt Klentak were hoping for before J.P. Crawford fizzled and was traded.

A.J. Hinch

• Career Manager Score: 6.9
• Peak Manager Score: 1.6
• Record: 570-452, .558
• Postseason: 1 title (0.8 more than expected), 2 World Series appearances (1.1 more than expected), 4 playoff appearances (1.8 more than expected)
• Pythagenpat: +5
• Expected: +75

Someone will need to remind Hinch that this party won’t last. At some point the Astros will no longer dominate the AL West and the world, but it feels like that’s a few years down the road at this point. Until then, Hinch can enjoy a fantastic start to his career. A .558 winning percentage is nothing to scoff at. His performance against expectation is impressive, but he’ll catch the worst of it on the other side of the dynasty when the fall back to earth puts him in arrears. That said, there’s reason to wonder exactly how much Hinch is adding from a tactical standpoint. His teams are only +5 against Pythagenpat and have generally hewed close to the record their runs scored and allowed imply. I’m not a close Astros watcher, so it’s not possible for me to put that +5 total into context, however, at this juncture in their success cycle, the team may not want a flashy tactician to squeeze out extra runs on the field. They probably only need a guy who can keep the unit healthy and happy so that they produce at the high level their talent and past performance predicts. To that end, it appears that Hinch has done a nice job. Again, it’s a great start to a managerial career, and Hinch is only in his early forties, so he’s got a long way to go if he wants it.

Clint Hurdle

• Career Manager Score: -3.8
• Peak Manager Score: -1.7
• Record: 1268-1346, .485
• Postseason: 0 titles (0.6 fewer than expected), 1 World Series appearance (1.2 fewer than expected), 4 playoff appearances (1.1 fewer than expected)
• Pythagenpat: -5
• Expected: -2

Hurdle is a mediocre manager. He has some ups and some downs in his career, but overall, there’s little in his record to suggest he has a magic touch. What he apparently excelled at with the Pirates was being part of the team’s system of thinking and communicating that to his players. That’s a very 2010s kind of manager.

Joe Maddon

• Career Manager Score: 5.0
• Peak Manager Score: 14.2
• Record: 1252-1068, .540
• Postseason: 1 titles (0.5 more than expected), 2 World Series appearance (0.3 more than expected), 8 playoff appearances (3.0 more than expected)
• Pythagenpat: +8
• Expected: +65

Maddon doesn’t have a job right now, and at 65, he doesn’t have much time left to work with. In terms of HoME chances, he sits in a weird space. His career looks a bit like Whitey Herzog’s or Tommy Lasorda’s or Danny Murtaugh’s. Maybe Hughie Jennings too. Though there’s reasons to think he’s a lesser candidate than any of them such as appearing in fewer World Series and winning fewer of them. He’s a bubble case right now. Although he’s known as an innovator, Maddon’s career +8 versus Pythagenpat doesn’t really suggest someone whose wits contributed much in the win column. As a Hall of Fame candidate, bringing the Cubs home their first title in a zillion years may go a long way. As a Hall of Miller and Eric candidate, I’d recommend he sign on with a team that’s going somewhere fast. The day of the celebrity manager seems like it’s on the wane, however, so it remains uncertain whether a contender in the mold of the Cubs would have a spot for him. Maddon signed on for three years with the Angels, a team that’s not really going in any specific direction but is generally ambitious. If he can pilot them into the playoffs against stiff odds, it would certainly help the cause.

[Edited 1/1/20]

Mike Matheny

• Career Manager Score: -0.8
• Peak Manager Score: -4.3
• Record: 591-474, .555
• Postseason: 0 titles (0.2 fewer than expected), 1 World Series appearance (0.8 more than expected), 3 playoff appearances (0.7 more than expected)
• Pythagenpat: +6
• Expected: +17

The Kansas City Royals made a very Royals move by hiring precisely the wrong kind of manager to help them with their latest iterations of “the process.” Matheny had a very difficult time integrating younger players into contributing roles with the Cards, which seems like a bad match when you’re trying to rebuild. He also has some tendencies to overcontrol a game. To the good, he virtually never steals (his teams stole second and third 68 and 65 percent as often as the league). On the other hand, he sacrifices often (18 percent more often than the league). What’s the use of overcontrolling a game in which young players are trying to become savvy veterans? What does it say about his standing and his future? He and Hinch are in comparable places in their respective careers. Hinch’s manager scores are five or six points higher than Matheny’s despite a similar record and despite similar performance against Pythagenpat. The difference is in the postseason, of course, but also, and more importantly, in Hinch’s performance against expectation. Hinch is +75 while Matheny is +17. Big differences. The postseason may indicate why Matheny has problems that Hinch doesn’t. Joe Sheehan has written exhaustively in his e-newsletter about Matheny’s tactical shortcomings. Suffice it to say, the Royals new skipper won’t get tied up in knots in a playoff situation anytime soon, but with the Cards, he often failed to leverage relievers and pinch hitters effectively, often in crucial situations that contributed to missed opportunities in losses. You don’t get lucky in every playoff series, and the cumulative damage to his teams’ chances manifested in part in the Cards’ inability to get to more than one World Series nor to win during his tenure. All this also fails to take into consideration Matheny’s tendencies toward a surveillance-state clubhouse. It’s hard to see how Ned Yost’s holly-jolly clubhouse will transition to Matheny’s macho-man attitudes, but sometimes a radical change works for a year or two before the players rebel. The clock starts running on handsome Mike in about two months.

Don Mattingly

• Career Manager Score: -3.8
• Peak Manager Score: -7.2
• Record: 722-733, .496
• Postseason: 0 titles (0.3 fewer than expected), 0 World Series appearances (1.2 fewer than expected), 3 playoff appearances (barely fewer than expected)
• Pythagenpat: +6
• Expected: -2

Boy, talk about bad career moves…. Mattingly went from one of baseball’s best organizations to its absolute worst. Why would he do that to himself? Because it’s taken a big toll on his record. His Fish have gone 276-370, erasing all the good he did with the Dodgers. Mattingly lost his West Coast gig because he couldn’t get his high-powered team into the World Series. Presumably he got his South Florida Coast gig because he was willing to take less than anyone else. Marlins baseball! Anyway, Mattingly’s still only in his fifties, it’s possible he could latch on with another team someday and redeem his career somehow, but one suspects that no one would want him around with the smell of dead fish all over his hands.

By the way, my favorite hot-stove rumor this year has the Marlins pursuing Yasiel Puig, aka the guy that Mattingly couldn’t manage. #sad

Bob Melvin

• Career Manager Score: -5.1
• Peak Manager Score: 0.8
• Record: 1180-1216, .492
• Postseason: 0 titles (0.5 fewer than expected), 0 World Series appearances (2.0 fewer than expected), 6 playoff appearances (1.1 more than expected)
• Pythagenpat: -1
• Expected: +13

What a difference two years makes! Winning 97 ballgames two years in a row balances out some of the fallow years Melvin managed through in Oakland, improving his manager score by several points, especially on the peak side. However, the bad news for Master Melvin is that he still looks pretty mediocre. At least en toto. I suspect that A’s fans would tell me that Melvin has done a really effective job with the team in the last several years. He’s battled injuries and used his entire roster very effectively. It’s not enough until he and his Athletics start racking up World Series wins, and even then it’s probably not enough.

Jim Riggleman

• Career Manager Score: -13.7
• Peak Manager Score: -17.3
• Record: 653-800, .449
• Postseason: 0 titles (0.3 fewer than expected), 0 World Series appearances (1.1 fewer than expected), 1 playoff appearance (1.4 fewer than expected)
• Pythagenpat: -34
• Expected: -45

Jim Riggleman is one of the worst managers in big league history. He’s not as bad as Buddy Bell, Jimmie Wilson, or Hugh Duffy, I’ll grant you, but the idea that the Reds brought him back for one last dance in 2018 is utterly laughable. He’s exactly the sort of guy you never bring back. He contributes negative value to his teams, and he creates controversy. Blech.

Mike Scioscia

• Career Manager Score: 8.3
• Peak Manager Score: 15.7
• Record: 1650-1428, .536
• Postseason: 1 title (0.4 more than expected), 1 World Series appearance (0.9 fewer than expected), 7 playoff appearances (0.8 more than expected)
• Pythagenpat: +37
• Expected: +62

Mike Scioscia’s case will prove an interesting litmus test for the Hall of Fame. Assuming he doesn’t return to the dugout, he’ll retire with just the one World Series victory. The Hall tends to like skippers with more hardware than that. Let’s compare him to a few other good, retired managers within two hundred-fifty of his 3,078 career decisions to see where he stands.

                            TITLES  WS APP  PLAYOFF  VS    VS   MGR    PEAK
NAME           W-L     PCT  VS EXP  VS EXP  VS EXP  PYTH  EXP  SCORE  SCORE
============================================================================
C Griffith  1491-1367 .522   -0.4    -1.1     ---   +26   +71    4.8    7.9
R Houk      1619-1531 .514   +1.0    +1.3    -2.3   +28   +38    6.6    8.3
T Lasorda   1599-1439 .526   +1.2    +2.2    +3.2   - 3   + 9    4.1   15.4
M Scioscia  1650-1428 .536   +0.3    -0.9    +0.8   +37   +62    8.3   15.7
D Williams  1571-1451 .520   +1.2    +2.3    +0.7   +14   +80    7.5   13.4

Scioscia has the most wins, the highest winning percentage, and the most wins above pythagenpat. He’s in the middle in wins versus expectation but clustered toward the top end. But he does fall down a bit in how often he made it to October versus expectation. If all we knew was the other stuff, we’d probably label him the best candidate of the bunch. Well those World Series did, or rather didn’t, happen, so we can’t just brush them aside. On the other hand, Mike Scioscia’s non-October resume is better than Bruce Bochy’s. He was probably a better manager, day-to-day, than Bochy and a lot of other candidates. He’ll be a very interesting candidate for us and for the Hall, though we’d have a lot less trouble than they. I think. But you never know what happens when sixteen men “reason” things out together. Let’s say, he wouldn’t be the Harold Baines of managers. We already have that, and his name is Wilbert Robinson.

Buck Showalter

• Career Manager Score: 2.1
• Peak Manager Score: 8.2
• Record: 1551-1570, .506
• Postseason: 0 titles (0.6 fewer than expected), 0 World Series appearances (2.0 fewer than expected), 5 playoff appearances (0.6 fewer than expected)
• Pythagenpat: 9
• Expected: 69

Buck stayed around too long in Baltimore. Taking a 47-115 hit in 2018 really sabotaged his numbers. Now he’s a free agent, and one wonders if he’ll work again or choose to stay out of the limelight. Showalter helped the Yankees a good deal in his tenure there. He was fired after the epic 1995 playoffs and Edgar Martinez’s famous double. The next year, the Bronx Bombers won the World Series in dramatic fashion. Away from the Steinbrenner penitentiary he lit out for the desert sands of Arizona whereupon he took up the helm of the most initially successful expansion team ever. He left there after 2000, whereupon the team promptly won a title in 2001. He did an OK job in Texas, then became a sportscaster for a while. Finally he went to Baltimore in 2010, contributing mightily to the stunning turnaround of a team that hadn’t made the playoffs since Tony Tarasco roamed right field. Showalter consistently delivered surprising results for a team that always seemed a couple parts short of a complete engine, especially managing his bullpen well. Well, the O’s didn’t win the big one a year after Buck left, at least he has that consolation. Still, the question for Showalter is whether he’s got bad luck or whether he couldn’t bring teams over that last hump. I suspect the former, though I can’t disprove the latter. He may be the most interesting manager of his time, but that’s not enough to get him over the hump into the Hall of Miller and Eric.

Ned Yost

• Career Manager Score: -3.0
• Peak Manager Score: 1.1
• Record: 1203-1341, .473
• Postseason: 1 title (0.5 more than expected), 2 World Series appearances (0.02 fewer than expected), 3 playoff appearances (1.7 fewer than expected)
• Pythagenpat: -3
• Expected: -3

Ned Yost was fired days before the playoffs by the Brewers because they lacked confidence in his tactical acumen. Ned Yost won a World Series in an October when his singles-and-steals offense hit a bunch of surprising clutch homers. I have the idea that Yost was a nice guy whose teams mostly stayed on mission. But he, himself, had average or worse abilities as the team’s leader. As a package, he’s an unimpressive manager.

Election Results: Negro Leagues Manager

We’re back with our latest Negro Leagues electoral news! This time around it’s our lone Negro Leagues manager slot. To be clear, it’s possible we’re actually electing the second best manager in Negro Leagues history. Rube Foster, whom we already snagged, has a strong argument as the top skipper. Of course, he’s also the best executive/pioneer candidate! But for today’s purpose we’re not going to worry about Foster since he’s already got his plaque.

So let’s set the table for today’s election. After Foster there are only three other realistic candidates who combine success, career length, and championships, the stuff that makes managers worth selecting. Those men are Vic Harris, Lazaro Salazar, and Candy Jim Taylor. Let’s run a table, as we’re wont to do. This chart represents the data we have through October of 2019. If you’re reading thereafter, the numbers might be a little different. In addition, some data comes from other published sources as well. We’ll toss Foster in there too just for comparison.

NAME                G      W    L    T   PCT  PENNANTS*  WS APP  WS WIN
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Rube Foster        1141   711  431  32  .623      3        0       0
Vic Harris          849   533  289  22  .647      5        2       1
Lazaro Salazar     2011  1126  885   0  .560     11        0       0 
Candy Jim Taylor   1736   858  897  27  .489      0        3       2   
*In many cases, these men managed in leagues that didn't have a World/Championship Series

Foster was the mastermind behind the Chicago American Giants. Like John McGraw and Frank Chance, he made his name by being a taskmaster who drilled his charges incessantly in fundamentals. Obviously it paid off. His career isn’t terribly long, but remember, he stopped managing in the 1920s to form and run the Negro National League. It’s a very strong record.

Next up Vic Harris. He steered the helm for the great Homestead Grays from 1936 through 1948. With stars Josh Gibson and Buck Leonard forming the heart of the order, Harris skippered the team to seven top finishes in the Negro National League with an otherworldly .647 percentage.

Lazaro Salazar is a little different ball of wax. He never managed in the Negro Leagues proper. Instead, he managed a lot of Negro Leagues players in Venezuela, Cuba, and Mexico in both winter and summer leagues. He led 29 teams in total from 1937 until his death in 1957 at 44 years old.

Finally, Candy Jim Taylor was a manager’s manager and often considered the finest baseball man in the game after Foster’s departure from the dugout. He lasted forever leading teams for thirty-seven years and nabbing two World Series wins. He managed his share of dogs, too, and we are missing his 1926 and 1927 teams from the database altogether. It’s possible his St Louis Stars could have been good enough in those years to draw him to or close to .500.

What’s a Hall of Miller and Eric elector to do?

Well, it’s time to welcome our newest member of the HoME. Put your hands together for Lazaro Salazar!

What led us to Salazar? Let’s first tell you what led us away from Harris and Taylor to put our decision into perspective.

The truth about Harris seems a bit elusive. Credit for the Grays’ dynasty is usually put at the feet of owner Cum Posey who wooed and ultimately signed (and retained) the great talents that drove his ball clubs. There’s little in the oral histories to support Harris’ role in guiding these teams. Gibson and Leonard were both on the team before he arrived, and it’s unknown what he did that helped retain their services. And, anyway, managing Gibson and Leonard to pennants doesn’t exactly sound like too difficult a task, does it?

In Taylor’s case, the many, many seasons of mediocrity weigh against Candy Jim’s candidacy. Actually he’s a little like Bruce Bochy when you look at it, though Bochy’s got more goodies than Taylor.

Then we looked at Salazar. Despite an OK winning percentage, we know from Jim Riley’s book and other sources that it was Salazar himself who lured the players to many if not all of his teams. And he won eleven freaking pennants! There simply were no World Series-type events for him to win in those leagues. But there’s another factor in play. Lazaro Salazar is a borderline HoME player. He’s an outstanding batter-fielder as well as a decent pitcher. Neither Harris nor Taylor’s playing careers could be described as better than good. So the combination of a strong managerial record and a strong player record felt irresistible to us.

Congratulations to Lazaro Salazar!

Keep watching this space in the future for our pioneer/executive Negro Leagues elections.

Fixing the Hall (or not?): Negro Leagues Representation by the Numbers

How many Negro Leaguers should the Hall of Fame have elected? This is an answerable question. At least kinda. As with all things to do with the Hall and the Negro Leagues, the straightforward answer never turns out to be all that straightforward.

Thing is, though, we ought to know the answer. Parity, equity, these goals feel important in this matter, especially in an era that was supposed to be post-racial but has turned out very much racialized. So, as usual, let’s dig into the numbers, the variables, and the politics to see whether we can come up with an answer that’s more than just “because the Veterans Committee said so.”

Negro Leaguers in the Hall Now

Without going into excruciating detail, here’s what we know about the Negro Leaguers in the Hall of Fame:

• The Hall has elected 29 Negro Leagues players
  • These players’ careers approximately span the years 1885–1960.
  • Several additional players elected for their Major Leagues exploits got their starts in the Negro Leagues (Aaron, Banks, Campanella, Doby, Mays, and Jackie Robinson), although they were not elected on the basis of those seasons.
• The Hall has elected 1 Negro Leagues manager.
• The Hall has elected 5 Negro Leagues pioneers/executives. This includes a white man, J.L. Wilkinson, who owned the famed Kansas City Monarchs. We are counting him as a Negro Leagues man, even though he wasn’t a dark-skinned individual.

Members Elected to the Hall from Organized Baseball for work during the Negro Leagues Era

What about the white players, managers, and pioneers/executives in the Hall? How many white fellows were elected for achievements during the same 75-year span as their Negro Leagues counterparts in the Coop? Here’s the lowdown. I looked at anyone whose career started no earlier than 1882 and no later than 1948. Why did I pick 1948? Because a number of Negro Leagues players of that era played in the minors and majors through the early to mid 1960s. It’s the last batch of fellows whose careers intersected with the Negro Leagues in a meaningful way.

• 132 players total from John Clarkson and Bid McPhee (starting in 1882) to Roy Campanella, Richie Ashburn, and Robin Roberts (starting in 1948)
• 12 managers (from Ned Hanlon to Leo Durocher)
• 18 pioneer/executives (from Al Spalding to George Weiss)

Does it mean anything that the Negro Leagues are represented by 29 players and the majors by 132?

Inductivity

If we’re going to compare the big leagues and the Negro Leagues, we’ll need to know the rates of induction for each. So I counted up all the MLB players whose careers began from 1882–1948.

• A Play Index search reveals that 12,420 rookie players appeared during this time (7,772 batters and 4,648 pitchers)
  • That means that of all players to kick off their careers from 1882–1948, the Hall inducted 1.06% of them.
• The smallest number of PA among Hall members was about 5,000, and 358 men who debuted during this time met this criterion. That’s about 4.6% of all the hitters who got started from 1882–1948. Our criteria does exclude a few guys whose primes were in the 1880s and who debuted before 1882, but it’s good enough for what we’re up to.
  • So far, the Hall has honored 95 of these batters, or 26.5% of all hitters with at least 5,000 PA.
• The smallest number of IP among Hall members was Dizzy Dean’s 1967.33, so let’s call it 1,950 IP. There were 203 pitchers who went 1950+ innings during this era.
  • Cooperstown includes 37 pitchers from this time period, or 18.2% of everyone with 1,950 or more innings pitched.
• The smallest numbers of games managed by a Hall manager was 1,770, and the smallest number of seasons managed was thirteen. Among the 313 people who made their managerial debut from 1882–1948, 28 managed at least 1,500 games, and none of this subgroup managed fewer than 11 seasons.
  • Cooperstown has pulled the lever on 3.8% of all managers debuting during the period in question.
  • The Hall’s twelve managers represent a whopping 42.9% of all long-time managers of this epoch.
  • However, eight of these 1,500-game managers were inducted as players or execs, so the real electable total is 20, and the real percentage is sixty percent.
• Overall, the Hall has thus far chosen 19 of its 30 executives and pioneers from those working from 1882–1948. I’m counting Walter O’Malley and Bill Veeck in this group. These 19 men operated during a span of approximately 1,300 team seasons, or an induction rate of 1.5% of all team seasons.

This doesn’t mean that any of these specific percentages are the correct rate of induction. Just the facts, ma’am. But this means we can now look at the Negro Leagues to see whether they have been elected at similar rates.

Proportionate Representation?

Before we do so, however, some ground rules.

1. We’ll use data from the US Negro Leagues, and include only players that appeared stateside but use their Cuban Leagues and Mexican League stats too.
2. We won’t count touring games against big leaguers, minor leaguers, or Cubans.
3. A lot of other information is just too big a pain in the butt to run down, such as locating minor leagues PA/IP for every single guy who crossed over. Maybe someday.

Here’s what we found after some Exceling:

• The Negro Leagues Database currently includes 835 hitters and 1,063 pitchers that meet the ground rules above for a total of 1,898 players.
  • That means that of all the players to kick off their careers during this time (whom we have data for), the Hall has enshrined 1.52%. That’s very close to the Hall’s rate for organized baseball (1.06% as noted above).
• The highest total of PAs from this period was Ty Cobb’s 13,099, and 5,000 PA is 38% of that top total. The highest PA total we have on record right now at the Negro Leagues Database is Oscar Charleston’s 5,825, and 38% of it is 1,989 PA. Call it 1,950.
  • Around 110 Negro Leagues hitters in the database crossed that threshold. More will arrive with subsequent updates of the database, but it’s good enough for now. One hundred and ten hitters is about 13% of all the batters. That’s about double the majors’ rate, but maybe that’s not an issue. The Negro Leagues tended to have smaller rosters and no minor leagues system, so it’s possible that in league games, they concentrated a higher percentage of playing time in their regulars.
  • Applying the majors’ 26.5% induction rate, we’d get 29.2 batters. Let’s call each of Dihigo and Rogan ½ pitcher and ½ hitter. In that case, the Hall currently is home to 20 Negro Leagues batters.
• Using the same idea as with hitters, Cy Young tossed 7,356 innings, and our 1,950 IP threshold above is 26.5% of it. The innings leader at the Negro Leagues Database (with our ground rules noted) is Ramón Bragaña and his 3209.33 frames. Twenty-six and a half percent of that is 850 innings.
  • Another 70 fellows have reached 850 innings.
  • Applying the majors’ 18.2% induction rate gives us 12.7 pitchers. The Hall has actually inducted nine (again, counting Dihigo and Rogan as a total of one pitcher).
• Cornelius Mack managed an astounding 7,755 games. Our 1,500 cutoff total above is 19.3% of Mack’s total. The highest total currently in the Negro Leagues Database is the 1,542 games that Candy Jim Taylor skippered. 19.3% of that total? Two-hundred ninety-eight games. Let’s call it 300 among friends.
  • So far about 29 managers have 300 recorded games as managers in the Negro Leagues database.
  • Applying the majors’ induction rate of 42.9% of these fellows, it’s 12.4 managers. The Hall’s elected Rube Foster only.
  • But let’s pause a second on this one like we did above. If we eliminate any duplication of managers already enshrined as players, we knock off six names, leaving us with 23 guys, and the Hall’s actual induction rate of 60% yields 13.8 managers.
  • Seems high, what if use the Hall’s 3.8% induction rate among all managers? A total of 194 men managed a game in the Negro Leagues. At 3.8%, that’s 7.4 managers, a more reasonable total, certainly.
• For the Hall’s five Negro Leagues pioneers/executives, we have a smaller set of team seasons, 701 to be exact.
  • If we apply the same exec induction rate as the majors then we’re looking at 10.6 Negro Leagues pioneers and execs.
  • That said, I’d advocate for cutting that 701 total down a bit. Some of these team seasons consist of less than twenty, less than ten, and sometimes just one or two games. If you said to cut it in half, I’d probably be OK, and we’d already be at the number we’re looking for.

Rounding Up?

Now that we’ve looked at this a little analytically, let’s look at the gaps.

• Hitters: Missing about 9 hitters
• Pitchers: Missing about 4 pitchers
• Managers: Missing about 6 managers
• Pioneers/Execs: Probably OK as is, one or two more would be fine but not mandatory

If this way of looking at the question makes sense, then the Hall may want to consider adding more Negro Leagues folks. Here’s some suggestions of key names to look into:

• Batters: Grant Johnson, Heavy Johnson, Dick Lundy, Hurley McNair, Dobie Moore, Alejandro Oms, Quincy Trouppe, Burnis Wright
• Pitchers: Dave Barnhill, Ramon Bragana, Bill Byrd, Dick Redding, Lazaro Salazar (a two-way great), Roy Welmaker
• Managers: Frank Duncan, Vic Harris, Dave Malarcher, Felton Snow, Candy Jim Taylor, Frank Warfield
• Pioneers/Execs: Ed Bolden, Gus Greenlee, Buck O’Neil, Larry Lester (Wendell Smith and Sam Lacy are already Spink Award winners, or I’d list them here)

On the other (non-pitching) Hand

Thing is, though, thanks to Frankie Frisch, Bill Terry, and the rabbit ball, the 1920s and 1930s are the most over-represented era in big league history: Chick Hafey, Pop Haines, Jim Bottomley, Freddie Lindstrom, Travis Jackson, High Pockets Kelly, and Ross Youngs are the chief beneficiaries of the VC’s cronyism. Knock those guys out of the pool, and we shave two points off our induction rate for hitters, dropping the total to 27 instead of 29 hitters. For the pitchers, the induction rate drops to 17.7%, resulting in 12.4 pitchers rather than 12.7.

There are other issues to consider as well. Other than Dick Redding, the pitchers who look like the best candidates outside the Hall aren’t as obviously mistakes of omission as those among the hitters. That’s a far tougher group to pick through than the numerous good position players still at large, and I might, in the Hall’s shoes, be willing to forgo one of those pitchers or two to get more great hitters.

Cap’ns Crunch?

One more word about managers. It’s very hard to say how much a manager influenced his teams in the Negro Leagues. It seems as though some managers, like Candy Jim Taylor, were renowned dugout gurus. In some cases, however, it also seems like some star players managed because it was a promotion of sorts that gave them a little extra money and prestige. It’s hard to know how much they contributed as strategists versus playing middle managers on road trips. In addition, some teams with strong ownership may have had an advantage in player retention, making their field managers look good. This could be the case with Vic Harris (or Jose Mendez for that matter), managers of wealthier and more successful teams.

Let’s zero in on Harris for a second. He managed the amazing dynasty of the Homestead Grays for nearly its entire run, and his best players mostly stayed with the team. It seems unlikely that a poor manager and communicator would have retained such a constellation of talent no matter how deep ownership’s pockets were. The history of the Negro Leagues is rife with stories of players battling managers and owners, skipping out of contracts in midyear, and otherwise creating a wide range of disruptions. The ability of someone like Harris to remain in place for a very long time with relatively little turnover and disruption suggests something very positive about his managerial acumen. As we know, working well with the front office is an important ability for managers to possess, and if Harris worked especially well with owner Cum Posey, he contributed quite a lot to the ongoing success of the Grays franchise.

That said, I can see an important argument for electing fewer managers than the major league rate of induction. Namely, Wilbert Robinson and Bucky Harris were mistake choices from this era. We probably don’t need seven managers. Removing these two duds and applying the resulting 3.195% induction rate pushes the total down to 6.2 managers. In other words five more than we have now. I would push for strong consideration for Harris, and then we’d have to do a lot of research to be sure we’ve got the right candidates. It’s possible that given what we know about Negro Leagues managers, we might want either elect fewer or shift a couple of them over to the pioneer/executive ranks where Bolden and O’Neil have strong credentials.

A Decent Job, Sometimes Well Done

Generally, we can say that the Hall has done a decent job, though it’s progress has been halting. It might, however, benefit from adding a few more people to its current Negro Leagues roster. The Hall of Merit with 31 honorees who would qualify as Negro Leagues careers is closer to the likely magic number for players, if such a number exists, than the Hall is. That is if we think that a fairly close degree of parity is a goal. I would, but others’ opinions may differ.

Thing is, there’s little negative that can result from the Hall increasing its Negro Leagues representation. Only positives, really. The Coop can get carried away with good ideas sometimes, so they need to take a little care. But overall, why not? If they need a little help, we’re on call at any time. But please drop us an email, Mr. Idelson, because we want to help.

End of the Year HoME Update: Managers

Now that we’ve updated you on how the players on the field have boosted their chances of making the Hall of Miller and Eric, let’s look at their fearless leaders. We currently tracking neither of this 2017’s World Series managers, but there’s plenty that we are keeping tabs on.

I’ve created a manager score that uses z-scores to rate all mangers with at least 1,000 games at the helm relative to one another. The average manager would, therefore, have precisely a 0.0 score. Here’s what the average Hall of Miller and Eric manager looks like at a career level:

• Manager Score: 15.7
• Wins: 1844
• Win pct: .566
• Adjusted historical win pct.: .546
• Percent above/below Pythagenpat: 1.02
• Percent above/below expectation: 1.05
• Titles: 3.2
• Titles above/below expectation: 1.9
• World Series Appearances: 5.4
• World Series Appearances above/below expectation: 3.1
• Playoff Appearances: 4
• Playoff Appearances above/below expectation: 1.7

Here’s the same info for a ten-year peak/prime:

• Manager Score: 22.7
• Wins: 922
• Win pct: .619
• Adjusted historical win pct.: .597
• Percent above/below Pythagenpat: 1.05
• Percent above/below expectation: 1.13
• Titles: 3.2
• Titles above/below expectation: 2.6
• World Series Appearances: 5.4
• World Series Appearances above/below expectation: 4.4
• Playoff Appearances: 7
• Playoff Appearances above/below expectation: 2.0

Dusty Baker
Career: 8.3
Peak: 15.8

Dusty took the hit for another October flameout in DC. He wears out welcomes pretty quickly these days. From a statistical perspective Baker would probably be just fine in the HoME. But if you don’t have even one World Series title, and you’ve only been there once, you’d better have a good reason why and one hell of a regular season record. In other words, you’d better be like Al Lopez who made the dance twice but never won despite an amazing regular season resume. Let’s compare them side-by-side.

          W-L      PCT  +/-PYPAT  %PYPAT  +/-EXP  %EXP
LOPEZ  1410-1004  .584     +53      1.04     +81  1.06
DUSTY  1863-1636  .532     +28      1.02     +92  1.05

While Baker has more than a thousand games on Lopez, the quality of those games is, well, not very high. In those extra 1,088 games, Baker’s record is a nifty 453-632 (.416). Plus, Al has advantages in a number of places. He won more often, he beat Pythagenpat more often, and he beat expectations more often. But what if we took only their best ten seasons? At their best could Baker make a case as the Al Lopez of the double-expansion era?

          W-L     PCT  +/-PYPAT  %PYPAT  +/-EXP  %EXP
LOPEZ   953-611  .609     +47      1.05    + 86  1.10
DUSTY   944-675  .583     +28      1.03    +120  1.14

If we use my historical adjustment technique, their winning percentages narrow to .591 for Lopez and the same .583 for Baker. And Dusty pulls ahead in terms of performance against expectation as well. I’m not sure that this avenue of reasoning would be enough to get Baker a plaque, but he’s not so far off from Lopez that an if-then argument might not feel at least a little persuasive.

Bruce Bochy
Career: 7.7
Peak: 18.4

Three World Series titles basically buys you a bronze plaque at the Hall of Fame. But this year Bochy slipped under .500 for his career. For a guy with a 3708 decisions and three championships under his belt, that’s not amazing in the good sense. His record is good enough for induction right now. He’s not close to sliding off the edge or anything. But among managers we’ve elected, only Connie Mack lost more than half his career games, and, no offense to Bochy, but he’s no Cornelius McGuillicuddy. In fact, the only other below .520 is Casey Stengel (.508).

Bud Black
Career: -6.3
Peak: -10.8

Despite a fine season in 2017, Black remains in the red. Unless the Rox rip off a few championships in a row, he’s just another below average manager.

Terry Collins
Career: -4.5
Peak: -4.5

Finally relieved of duty after a long and anxious twisting in the wind. But not fired, you see. The Wilpons like the guy, so he’s kicked upstairs to do, well, whatever it is that you do when you get kicked upstairs. Special assitanting, I guess. I think I might like to be a special assistant. As far as I can tell, it means you chat with the owner or the GM, whichever one it is likes you, and you probably work at home a lot. You get to go to a lot of ballgames, which is pretty cool. Sit in the nice seats. Bet the food’s on the house too, the good stuff. What they serve in the owner’s box. Pull down a big hunka change too. Worse ways to make a living.

John Farrell
Career: -2.7
Peak: -6.3

This is a terrible thing to say, but getting cancer probably saved John Farrell’s job after 2016. It was clear that the Sox were ready to part ways and that Tory Lovullo was the heir apparent. But sympathy won the day, and, you know what? Why not. No need to take a John Lackey PR hit on this one. Farrell meandered his way through another tactically challenged season, did a good job saying the right things, and the Sox’ early playoff exit gave the team the cover it needed to do what they’d wanted to do all along. A number of young players developed under Farrell, including Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Andrew Benentendi, Rafael Devers, and Xander Bogaerts. That’s pretty good. Yes, Bogey has regressed, but Betts is going to be a perennial MVP candidate for a long time provided he doesn’t suffer a career-altering injury. Still, it was time. Farrell was the last regime’s guy, and other than the incredible 2013 run, he hadn’t really done much to lengthen his leash. I suspect that he’ll land in an organization as a pitching guru or in a broadcast booth. He won’t land in the Hall of Miller and Eric.

Terry Francona
Career: 8.3
Peak: 17.2

The only thing holding Francona back from greater glory will be his heart and the Philadelphia Phillies. Tito seems like a pretty nice guy, and he’s always been gracious and thoughtful as the face of his team. He’ll never have to pay for a cab, a drink, or a meal in Boston again. So we all hope that his ticker won’t be a continual problem. The Phillies of the late 1990s and early 2000s, however, will always haunt him. Francona got on the managerial train as a younger man, and in his early years, he cut his teeth with some pretty bad teams. He left his starters in way too long. He didn’t seem to have it all puzzled out. But when the Red Sox came calling after the Jimy Williams debacle, Tito suddenly came of age professionally. I suspect that being engaged with a front office that was both competent and supportive (neither of which were necessarily true in Philadelphia), helped Francona to mature. Now he’s simply an excellent manager who is well suited to the role at this time in the game’s history. He’ll probably cease to be so well suited soon. The game passes older men by, and Tito’s price tag won’t be getting lower. In 2017, he had another fine year. He won 100 games for the first time. He was actually a couple games under Pythagenpat, but a cool 11 games over expectation. With Michael Brantley presumably returning next year, and hopefully in at least decent form, the Tribe have a great opportunity to keep running out winning teams, and for Francona to win that all-important third title. It will guarantee him a plaque at the Coop, and can’t hurt his candidacy here either.

John Gibbons
Career: -8.8
Peak: -10.6

I’m not sure that John Gibbons has incriminating photographs of the board members of Rogers Communications, but that’s the most logical explanation for his continued employment. Amirght?

Joe Girardi
Career: 8.6
Peak: 8.9

With a lone championship in six postseason tries, Joe had to go. You hear that Girardi might have had some troubles with younger players, but Aaron Judge didn’t struggle to develop. Nor Delin Betances or Luis Severino. Did Grigorious has blossomed in New York. Starlin Castro had a nice comeback year after looking lost for a while. But after nearly a decade without a new Commissioner’s Trophy…. Girardi should be an attractive candidate to any team. Obviously, he handles media scrutiny and pressure decently enough to survive in New York for a decade. He’s gotten good work against Pythagenpat (+34 wins) and against New York’s high expected wins estimates. (+48). Good manager and would be an asset to any team willing to pony up.

Clint Hurdle
Career: -4.1
Peak: -2.6

For a little while, Hurdle had made progress toward an outside shot at almost maybe having what could be, if everything went right, a path to the HoME’s manager wing. Then Andrew McCutchen’s collapse happened.

Joe Maddon
Career: 5.0
Peak: 11.1

Maddon’s career already has a Whitey Herzog flavor to it. Good insight into strategy and tactics, good motivator (albeit in a different way), willing to use every player on his roster. Their winning percentages are currently just six points different. Maddon’s about 400 games shy of Whitey’s career total, but he’s made seven playoff appearances to Herzog’s six (albeit with expanded playoffs). Whitey won once in three trips to the World Series, and Maddon’s won once in two trips. Being pretty similar to Whitey Herzog’s a pretty good place to be. Whitey is among our more borderline honorees, and Maddon’s got time on his side—as well as Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and the Ricketts family’s checkbook.

Mike Matheny
Career: 10.5
Peak: 0.8

The former backstop has had problems in the tactical crucible of October. The regular season’s been better since the parts that he appears to do well (communication, keeping the team focused and on-mission) are suited for the long haul. I suspect that he’s a little better than John Farrell and a lot worse than Joe Maddon.

Don Mattingly
Career: 0.2
Peak: -4.9

Donny Baseball couldn’t get it done with an excellent roster in LA that included the greatest pitcher since peak Pedro. Then he somehow let Jeff Loria con him into what must be among the top-three worst managerial jobs in MLB. It appears the situation without baseball’s longtime worst owner will pretty much be like it was with that terrible owner. Only now he gets to look into Derek Jeter’s calm eyes to learn about the latest gutting of the fish.

Bob Melvin
Career: -5.1
Peak: -2.9

Melvin remains employed entering 2018.

Mike Scioscia
Career: 8.0
Peak: 15.9

Looks a lot like Dusty Baker statistically. Also has developed some of the crustiness. What’s killing Scioscia is that Arte Moreno has splashed cash around without much of an organizational plan, and, until Billy Eppler came along, a series of GMs who were either incompetent or couldn’t get along with the guy in the dugout. And the guy in the dugout has Moreno’s ear. Or so the tales out of Anaheim of Los Angeles go. Regardless, the Ohtani signing has generated laughs because Scioscia is one of the last managers observers would expect to allow a two-way experiment to get a fair hearing. That’s Joe Maddon’s territory. Now Eppler has added Ian Kinsler to Ohtani and the resigning of Justin Upton to give the Halos the looks of a team that could maybe surround Mike Trout with average players. Trout + 81 wins = wild card. Let’s see if Scoscia can manage with enough finesse to see the plan through to success.

Buck Showalter
Career manager score: 6.0
Peak manager score: 8.4

Buck has the sixth highest winning percentage among managers with 1,000+ games whose teams have never appeared in a World Series:

1. Herman Franks: .537
2. Jimy Williams: .535
3. Danny Ozark: .533
4. Don Mattingly: .532
5. Bill Virdon: .519
6. Buck Showalter: .518
7. Johnny Oates: .517
8. Birdie Tebbets: .515
9. Harry Walker: .511
10. Jerry Manuel: .508
11. Don Zimmer: .508
12. Ron Gardenhire: .507
13. Fredi Gonzalez: .506
14. Paul Richards: .506
15. John Gibbons: .504
16. Felipe Alou: .503
17. Buck Rodgers: .503
18. Pinky Higgins: .502

The bad news for Showalter, besides the fact that the Orioles aren’t going to be very good next year and are in the same division as Boston and New York who will be, is that he tops the list in games managed. In fact, if, as we suspect, the birds fail to make the big dance in October of 2018, and he isn’t fired before August, he’s going to become the first manager with 3,000 games managed and a .500 winning percentage who’s never made it the title game. Let alone won the crown. I’d say that’s likely to hamper his chances at any Hall.

Ned Yost
Career: 0.2
Peak: 1.2

Anyone still think this guy is a genius?

That’s the managerial update for 2017. Lots on the line for a few of these guys in the coming season. Less for others…. But whatever happens in 2018, we’ll be there to cover it.

Eric’s Viewing Guide to the 2017 Season

Miller’s 17 for 17 article for Opening Day covered a lot of ground. Even though the season is ten days old, here’s a better-late-than-never guide to what I’m watching for in the 2017 season. I’ve mostly left the players to Miller and called out some events, and some things that might be best described as coming out of left field. But isn’t that what you’ve come to expect?

The BBWAA electors: How many plaques will they award?

Since 1970, 34 players have reached 65.0%–74.99% on a given ballot during their candidacy. Of them, 30 of them were subsequently elected by the BBWAA (88% if you’re scoring at home). No one who’s reached 65% in their first ten years on the ballot has failed to win election. Among the 30 who became Hall members, they BBWAA waited an average of 1.4 years to bestow a plaque. In 2017, the writers gave Trevor Hoffman 74.0% (up from 67.3% in 2016) of the necessary votes and Vlad Guerrero 71.0% of the vote in his first campaign. Hoffman will go in for 2018, and Vlad is pretty much a lock. No player who has picked up 70%+ very early in their Hall trajectory has failed to win election the next year. So that’s two. Chipper Jones will get his due as well to make three. Could Jim Thome make four? He’s never had a whisper of steroid use, was considered a great player, and hit more than 600 homers. If he doesn’t make it this year, it’s because he finished at 65%+, and he’ll get bronzed in 2019.

The Veterans Committee (Modern Baseball) electors: Will they give out any plaques?
The odds are with no, of course. The VC has failed to elect highly qualified players their due for a decade or so. Why should this one be any different? Danger looms in the person of Jack Morris whose final-year 66.7% with the BBWAA may portend his eventual selection. Also under potentially under consideration are actually great players such as Jack’s teammates Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, Darrell Evans, Keith Hernandez, Bobby Grich, Rick Reuschel, Dave Stieb, Thurman Munson, Ted Simmons, Dick Allen, Willie Randolph, Buddy Bell, Graig Nettles, Sal Bando, Jimmy Wynn, Dwight Evans, Bobby Bonds, Roy White, Jose Cruz, and Reggie Smith. (A few of these guys straddle the Golden Days era; it’s not yet known where they’ll be placed.) I suppose the smart money is on a big fat goose egg because a ten-man ballot with this much potential quality seems unlikely to yield even one winner. Though it would be cool if the Detroit DP duo were inducted together.

Baseball-Reference.com: Will they update WAR into the 1930s?

Retrosheet recently released data that adds a great deal of missing play-by-play information to the World War II era. In correspondence with me, the world’s greatest ever website said they were awaiting that data before updating historical WAR calculations. Because there’s quite a lot of PBP data for several years prior to the war already available, it’s possible that we will have five to ten years’ worth of updated WAR info sometime this year. In the meantime, we’ve rummaged through the existing data to provide a guesstimate of what we think this new WAR might look like.

MLB ownership: Will they start talking expansion?

We’re about due for an expansion. MLB has typically gone 10–20 years between each round. In the last year to 18 months, I’ve noticed an awful lot of articles about expansion and particularly about Montreal as a focal point for it. Makes sense. At 4.09 million people, Montreal would rank about 15th among the marketing statistical areas in the US and Canada, highest among markets not currently hosting an MLB team. Here’s the other teamless towns with at least 2.00 million people in their metro area now and who would be among the top 32 US markets by population according to projected growth through the year 2030 and the same info for Montreal and Vancouver :

• Riverside, CA: 4.53 million, 5.63 million by 2030
• Montreal, ON: 4.09 million, 5.28 million by 2030
• Vancouver, BC: 2.55 million, 2.93 million by 2030
• Charlotte, NC/SC: 2.47 million, 3.13 million by 2030
• Orlando, FL: 2.44 million, 3.3 million by 2030
• Portland, OR/WA: 2.43 million, 2.89 million by 2030
• San Antonio, TX: 2.43 million, 3.19 million by 2030
• Sacramento, CA: 2.30 million, 2.72 million by 2030
• Las Vegas, NV: 2.16 million, 2.66 million by 2030
• Austin, TX: 2.06 million, 3.06 million by 2030
• Columbus, OH: 2.04 million, 2.41 million by 2030
• Indianapolis, IN: 2.00 million, 2.32 million by 2030
• San Jose, CA: 2.00 million, 2.36 million by 2030
• Nashville, TN: 1.83 million, 2.35 million by 2030

Some of these places may already be served by a big-league team and would be hard to get territorial rights for (especially Riverside, Orlando, Columbus, Sacramento, and San Jose). One of these towns is a place that would be incredibly unwise to put a team (Vegas, natch). Montreal is an obvious choice. After it probably comes Charlotte, San Antonio, or Austin. Mayors, line up today!

The City of Oakland: Will the A’s stadium situation get resolved?

With the Raiders officially gone, Oakland is a one-horse town sports-wise. That might mean that the city has more flexibility to work with the A’s to develop a new home park. Or at the worst redesign the Coliseum. Oakland is a plenty large market by population, so it makes sense for the team to stay put unless they are heading for the great, French-speaking North.

Stu Sternberg: Will they turn up the heat on a new stadium?

Stu Sternberg has made increasing noise over the last year about finding a new stadium site, so all the cities listed above may well have another chance in a few years to land a squad. With Tampa being a recipient cities of revenue sharing, the longer this situation goes on, the more big-team owners will want to resolve it. Especially because Tampa is rated somewhere between the 12^th to 20^th biggest media market in the US and could be a donor team instead of a lagging recipient. Getting out of the Trop, which is very difficult to drive to and has little public transportation flowing into it, and into a baseball-only fan-friendly park will go a long way. The team’s lease is up in 2027. That seems like a long time from now, but getting a new park negotiated and completed can take a very long time. Sternberg’s getting started now so that he can hold the city hostage later, if necessary.

Jeffrey Loria: Will he get the jillion-dollar price tag he wants or take his team and go home?

The worst owner in MLB and maybe all sports has the team on the market. Godspeed to him selling it. But this guy always ends up doing something I hate, so count on his not selling it and staying here to haunt us. Then again Cap’t Jeter is supposedly interested in buying the Fish, which might in some ways be worse yet.

Buck Showalter: Can he finally win a World Series?

Buck’s big shot at a ring was 1994 when his Yankees were cruising toward their first divisional championship since 1981. He’s a very good manager, but without even one World Series appearance, he’s got a massive hole in his resume. Fixing that hole is step one toward possible Hall of Fame enshrinement.

Terry Francona: Can he punch his ticket to Cooperstown?

Tito has likely done enough to merit a plaque at the Coop, but winning a World Series with another bad-luck team would make his case bulletproof. No eligible manager with three World Series wins has failed to reach the Hall. (Bruce Bochy has three but is still plying his trade.)

The Astros, Nationals, and Indians: Can one of these teams break their fugue of futility?

These three teams are preseason favorites to take their divisions. They are also three of the more cursed teams in the league. Tito Francona’s Indians haven’t won the World Series since 1948, the longest such drought in MLB. The Astros haven’t won the big one since their inception in 1962. The Nationals nee Expos have never even been to the Series. Can any of them work some of that old Cubs/White Sox/Red Sox magic this year?

Let’s round things up with a few quick-hits for players:

• Mike Trout: Can he dethrone Ty Cobb for the highest WAR total through age 25? Trout opened the year just 7.2 Wins away, which is play money for him.
• David Wright: Can he play at all? I hope so; fantastic player and a shame if he can’t make it back.
• Chase Utley: How long can he hang on as a productive player? Long enough to reach 1000 RBI? Maybe even 2000 hits? Without those, I fear he’ll be Griched by the BBWAA.
• Troy Tulowitzki: Is he done as an All-Star caliber player? Or have his many injuries so decimated him that he’s no longer a core player for a championship team?

Manager Backlog Election

A few weeks ago, we announced that we were reconfiguring the Hall of Miller and Eric, sort of. Basically, we decided that since the Hall of Fame didn’t elect the same player in more than one role, even if he’s deserving, we shouldn’t either. So we had to think about our three guys who had been elected twice. What we decided is that Cap Anson and Fred Clarke would remain in the player wing only, and Joe Torre would remain in the manager wing only. Due to the shifting of Torre, we elected Bobby Doerr. And today, due to the shifting of Anson and Clarke, we have to fill the HoME’s manager wing with two more.

Hall of Miller and Eric

When we last chatted about managers, we wrote an obituary for Frank Chance. It was written at that time because there wasn’t enough depth to his managerial career. On the other hand, there certainly was greatness. In his first full year at the helm, 1905, Frank Chance led the Cubs to 116 wins and a World Series defeat against the White Sox. The next two years brought back-to-back championships before a down year of 104 wins and then another trip to the Series. Overall, his years in Chicago brought just shy of 102 wins on average. Later stints in New York and Boston were less successful, but Chance had already established his greatness in the dugout. All told Chance won only 946 games, but his .593 percentage was outstanding. “The Peerless Leader”, however, still has the short career that got him his first obituary. But our election of Clark Griffith as a combination player, manager, and owner helps to inform the Chance election. Chance, as you know, was an excellent first baseman for seventeen seasons. Each of the five seasons in which he played in at least 100 games, he posted at least 4 WAR. And he was at 5+ in four of them. As a player, we think the Hall got it wrong. But as a person in baseball history, Frank Chance certainly belongs in the HoME. Now he’s in.

When we last elected managers to the HoME, Davey Johnson was not yet eligible. But his record reminds me so much of Earl Weaver’s. Take a look:

Johnson: 2^nd, 2^nd, 1^st, 2^nd, 1^st, 2^nd, 1^st, 1^st, 2^nd, 1^st, 3^rd, 2^nd, 1^st, 2^nd

Weaver: 1^st, 1^st, 1^st, 3^rd, 1^st, 1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd, 2^nd, 4^th, 1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd, 4^th, 2^nd, 7^th

Chris Jaffe’s excellent book, Evaluating Baseball’s Managers, tells us that Johnson’s managerial characteristics included fandom of the hit and run, reliance of multiple innings out of his relievers, and avoiding issuing intentional walks. In fact, he never once advanced a runner with an intentional pass. Never. He succeeded by bringing the Mets the 1986 title. When he got to his next job for a partial season in Cincinnati, the club finished fifth. Once Johnson got them from the spring, they finished first twice in a row. Then he moved to Baltimore, a team that hadn’t been to the playoffs in more than a decade. Johnson brought them there in both of his campaigns. A trip to Los Angeles was less successful, but his final stint, one with the Nationals, saw a return to managerial glory as he brought the Nats to the playoffs for the first time in over 30 years, when they were the Expos. Had the Mets stuck with Johnson, which they almost certainly should have, we might be looking at someone even better than Earl Weaver. Just one team, maybe 2200 wins, and a Hall plaque assured. As it is, the HoME will have to do, and that’s just fine with us.

Well, the HoME’s managerial wing is now up to date. Out next election will come, well, whenever the Hall elects another manager. Here’s hoping it’s Davey Johnson.

Miller

Partial Recall!: We sort-of unelect three, will elect three more

Most voter recalls unelect crappy selections. We have to unelect three guys that we’re pleased with then replace them with three others.

Of course, this isn’t quite so simple as yea/nay. Upon reflection, we recognized that we shouldn’t have allowed one person to be honored in more than one wing of the Hall of Miller and Eric. We were being too clever by half, but about six months ago we realized it. Now it’s time to change. Here’s exactly what we’re up to.

We elected three people in both the player and manager wings of the HoME: Cap Anson, Fred Clarke, and Joe Torre. All three highly deserving candidates for both honors. Then we realized that we were no longer truly comparable to the Hall of Fame by three spots because the Hall doesn’t elect individuals to more than one wing. Only, which three spots were we talking about?

Anson, Clarke, and Torre all belonged in both wings without question, so which wing would they be removed from? For Anson and Clarke, the answer seemed simple: They were great managers and even better players. So they stay put as player and are removed from our managerial roster. Joe Torre, on the other hand, rated better and lasted far longer as a manager. He’s moving from player to manager.

This leaves us with two empty spots among our skippers and one hole to fill among the players. There’s a lot of electoral activity going on right now at the HoME, so here’s how we’re going to schedule things.

Friday February 3rd: 2017 player election (3 slots in accordance with the Hall’s 2017 election)

Friday February 24th: Backlog player election (1 slot to make up for Torre’s shuffling over to manager); this player must have retired by 2015, due to the fact that Torre was elected as player before we caught up to the Hall in 2015.

Friday March 10th: Backlog manager election (2 slots to make up for Anson and Clarke being just players); because we caught up the Hall’s managerial elections before the 2017 election, this election will be for pilots eligible through 2016. We should note that because the Today’s Game committee meets roughly biannually, we may consider managers who gained eligibility in 2016 but were not voted upon until 2017.

Friday March 24th: Resumption of our pioneer/executive elections with number 27 (4 slots to catch up to the Hall’s 2017 count!).

Friday April 7th: Pioneer/executive number 28

Friday April 21st: Pioneer/executive number 29

Friday May 5th: Pioneer/executive number 30

And then after that, we’ll be completely caught up, and it’ll all be neat and tidy.

For a day or two.

Then we’ll tell you our plans for the future. Hint: We aren’t going anywhere.

2016 Update, Managers

Like we’ve done at all the playing positions, let’s see how much good, or ill, active managers did themselves this year. Skippers present a particular challenge since our analysis of them is further removed than players from the results. There is no manager WAR (at least, no one has come up with one yet, but give it time). But both Miller and I have our own means for evaluating managers, as we’ll see below. One quick note before we get into, the managerial rankings below are among only those with 1000 games at the helm, plus select active skippers.

This brings to a close our review of the 2016 season. If you missed anything, all of the links are here: 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, C, RP, LHP, and RHP.

Managers
Dusty Baker
All-time rank in wins
2015: 17
2016: 17

All-time rank in winning percentage
2015: 44
2016: 44

All-time rank in games above Pythagenpat
2015: 26
2016: 26

All-time rank in games above Expected Wins
2015: 19
2016: 13

HoME Outlook:
Baker took a step up in 2016, and he once again showed that he’s a good manager in situations where a team needs to chill out a little to maximize its potential. After the Matt Williams/Jon Papelbon 2015 disaster, that’s exactly what the Nats needed and got from Dusty. The numbers versus Pythagenpat and versus expected wins suggest that Baker’s problem has not been getting the most out of people. Rather his ability to squeeze something extra from his veterans has papered over talent gaps on his rosters. But Dusty really, really needs to win a World Series one of these days. Heck, he’s only been to one World Series. The only HoME manager with a similar post-season record is Al Lopez, but Lopez also owns a better wining percentage, a better historical-adjusted winning percentage (see Eric’s article on this for more), and two World Series appearances, if no wins. Perhaps no manager needs a World Series win more than Baker because there’s some question marks on his resume. Did his handling of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior cost the Cubs the opportunity to go on a run of dominance in the early-mid 2000s? How much do we debit him for making the playoffs eight times (so far) and getting to Series just once? Winning a title would provide some ballast against these kinds of questions. He’s 67, so he’s probably got three to five years left. A healthy Strassburg, a resurgent Harper, the release of Ryan Zimmerman, and a decent shortstop would go a long way. That is if Mike Rizzo is listening….

Bruce Bochy
All-time rank in wins
2015: 16
2016: 15

All-time rank in winning percentage
2015: 78
2016: 75

All-time rank in games above Pythagenpat
2015: 31
2016: 38

All-time rank in games above Expected Wins
2015: 43
2016: 39

HoME Outlook:
Regardless of what happens moving forward with an aging outfield and questionable back ends of the rotation and pen, we’re looking at one of the absolute most successful managers in history. Only Connie Mack, Joe Torre, Joe McCarthy, Walter Alston, and Casey Stengel can tout more regular season wins and more World Series titles than Bochy. Two years from now he’s going to be 11^th in history in wins. If he manages for five more seasons, there’s a good shot he passes Sparky Anderson for 6^th place. He probably punched his ticket a couple of years ago when he won his third title. He’s certainly there now, particularly because it would seem a manager or three gets elected to the Hall before Bochy retires.

Terry Francona
All-time rank in wins
2015: 34
2016: 30

All-time rank in winning percentage
2015: 42
2016: 40

All-time rank in games above Pythagenpat
2015: 41
2016: 31

All-time rank in games above Expected Wins
2015: 34
2016: 31

HoME Outlook:
Francona is only 57 years old, and he’s now managed 16 seasons. He’s going to be able to stay in the league just as long as he likes. Who knew when he was cutting his teeth with the Phillies and struggling with tactical ideas that he’d be one of this era’s best skippers? But he’s learned at every juncture and this year we saw what he can do. His performance in 2016 has Manager of the Year stamped all over it. It’s possible it’ll be stamped by the Catholic Church as a miracle. Showing strong strategic and tactical acumen, he weathered injuries to two All-Star level starters, and somehow got the Indians into a good home-stretch kick despite having to get five innings three or four times a week from Josh Tomlin, Randy Tomlin, Lilly Tomlin, and the son of the guy who used to bang the big drum in the Cleveland bleachers. He turned Andrew Miller into a weapon like we haven’t seen since at least the late 1980s, and in October, he’s managed to get about more than half his innings from the best pitcher in the AL, the best reliever in the AL, and Cody Allen by doubling down on the Joe Torre short-series formula. If we see a move toward multi-inning relief aces or using your best reliever based on the situation, not the inning, then Tito will deserve a lot of the credit. With two World Series titles in a dozen years and so very close to three, he’s probably punched his HoME ticket. But this could very well be just a beginning. The Indians have a trio of talented young pitchers who could take them a long way. They have several young players that any team would covet (Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, and Michael Brantley), plus a number of home-grown contributors. It’s easy to see the Tribe staying on top for another three or four years, especially as the Tigers age, the Chisox keep trying to find a path forward, the Twins wallow, and the Royals’ core gets too expensive for the likes of David Glass. Francona is very likely to reach 2000 wins, he’s already got the titles—it’s all gravy from now on.

Joe Girardi
All-time rank in wins
2015: 79
2016: 72

All-time rank in winning percentage
2015: 18
2016: 22

All-time rank in games above Pythagenpat
2015: 23
2016: 19

All-time rank in games above Expected Wins
2015: 49
2016: 50

HoME Outlook:
If Francona isn’t the AL Manager of the Year for 2016, Girardi probably is. The Yankees moved the closers of both World Series teams as well as their only hitter with 230 trips to the plate and an OPS+ over 100, and then they made a run at the playoffs. Gary Sanchez and Starlin Castro provide young hope for the offense moving forward, and the clearing of the contracts of A-Rod, Teixeira, and Sabathia in the next couple of years will allow the Yanks to spend some big bucks. In short, and the current Yankee rebuild seems like it could bear fruit. If it does, Girardi will be poised to make a run at another title in the coming years. Up until now though, if you’re trying to make a case for Girardi, that Pythagenpat number is where you point. He has just one World Series title to date and likely will need to add another, particularly if he hangs around the Yankees for much longer and is compared to their great managers. He’s sixth in all-time wins in the Bronx, and four above him are in the HoME, in no small part because they’re all huge winners of the Series. Girardi does seem to have a decent disposition, and he’s able to get along with a General Manager in Brian Cashman who embraces a modern baseball philosophy. Given those facts, a manager who’s just 52 could have lots of years left in him. And if he manages another ten seasons, he’ll reach the all-time win territory that would seem to make him a Hall of Famer. For us, he’s going to need at least that. There’s time though.

Clint Hurdle
All-time rank in wins
2015: 64
2016: 55

All-time rank in winning percentage
2015: 94
2016: 94

All-time rank in games above Pythagenpat
2015: 94
2016: 94

All-time rank in games above Expected Wins
2015: 57
2016: 65

HoME Outlook:
Hurdle gets a lot of credit in SABR circles for his embrace of data, and that’s a real thing. His work in Pittsburgh was, until this year, very good, but Andrew McCutchen’s unforeseen goose egg scuttled any Pirate hopes. He hasn’t been able to get the Buccos deep into the playoffs, however, and that hurts. Especially because his overall record is still more than 40 games below .500. Unless the Burghers go on a nice, long streak of success and reach the big dance, it’s hard to see Hurdle rising above the HoME fray.

Joe Maddon
All-time rank in wins
2015: 73
2016: 66

All-time rank in winning percentage
2015: 45
2016: 39

All-time rank in games above Pythagenpat
2015: 56
2016: 55

All-time rank in games above Expected Wins
2015: 34
2016: 26

HoME Outlook:
On one hand, he’s 63. On the other, he just won his first World Series and has a roster and organization that could get him back there again and again. His Cubs won 103 games this year, making it an even 100 average in his two years in Chicago. And there’s readon to believe Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, even Jason Heyward, and more could be better in 2017. The pitching isn’t as young, but Kyle Hendricks should be around for some time, and there are still stars in Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta. Yes, the pen could use some work, though that’s likely the easiest place to upgrade. Forget the fact that Madden was likely out-managed in the Series by Terry Francona. We’re going to remember the title, not necessarily strange pitching changes and safety squeeze calls. Can he manage until he’s 70? Can he overcome those years with the under-funded Rays, or does he even need to. Let’s not forget that he averaged just shy of 90 wins per year over his last seven there. Yes, his age is working against him even though Maddon seems like a guy who’s going to be doing some pretty high-level work for 2040 and beyond. How much of that work be done in a major league dugout, I don’t know. Managing beyond age 70 is very uncommon. Bringing a title or two will have a lot to say about his chances.

Mike Scioscia
All-time rank in wins
2015: 24
2016: 23

All-time rank in winning percentage
2015: 27
2016: 30

All-time rank in games above Pythagenpat
2015: 8
2016: 13

All-time rank in games above Expected Wins
2015: 22
2016: 28

HoME Outlook:
With another year like 2016, will Scioscia’s grip on the levers of power in the OC start to slip? He’s generally been an excellent manager, but 2016 was the first season in which he lost more than 3 games to Pythagenpat (he was -6). The team suffered injuries to key players, and its front office seems unable to figure out what to do with the roster when the obvious move is to clone Mike Trout eight times. Kidding aside, the question here is whether Scioscia can get anything out of the Angels’ cobbled-together collection of one superstar, Albert Pujols’ moldering remains, some broken pitchers, an assortment of uninspiring regulars, and Matt Shoemaker’s beard. It’s possible that no one can do well in that situation. It’s also possible that the team’s skills are not well suited to Sciosciaball, which has always relied on contact, batting average, and aggressive baserunning. Actually, that’s a lot like recent Royals teams. Well, Scioscia’s career numbers are going to both suffer and improve in the next few seasons. He’ll creep toward 2000 wins, but the Angels’ alarming lack of high-impact minor-league talent, and their lack of direction at the major league level will eat away at his winning percentage and other rates. And, really, Scioscia, like every manager, would benefit from another World Series victory. Or even just getting to the World Series. Mike Trout won’t be Mantle Part II forever, so the clock is ticking.

Buck Showalter
All-time rank in wins
2015: 31
2016: 25

All-time rank in winning percentage
2015: 54
2016: 51

All-time rank in games above Pythagenpat
2015: 47
2016: 38

All-time rank in games above Expected Wins
2015: 6
2016: 6

HoME Outlook:
Buck Showalter is a great manager. It’s unfortunate for him that his teams didn’t recognize that fact in time. Right after losing his job in New York, Joe Torre won a bunch of titles. Right after losing it in Arizona, Bob Brenly won for the D’backs. And a couple of seasons after losing it in Texas, Ron Washington went to two straight World Series. Sone might say that Buck just couldn’t get the job done, but the rank in games above expected wins above says he didn’t quite have the talent and did a wonderful job with what he had on hand. In Baltimore these last six full seasons, we see a seemingly undermanned roster that has gotten to the playoffs three times. Buck is 60 right now. If he manages for five more years and manages a shade above .500 along the way, he’s going to pass five Hall of Famers in wins and stand 18^th all-time. If that happens, an argument is going to be made. But if he doesn’t win the World Series, it’ll be hard for that argument to resonate too much.

Ned Yost
All-time rank in wins
2015: 66
2016: 61

All-time rank in winning percentage
2015: 95
2016: 95

All-time rank in games above Pythagenpat
2015: 71
2016: 64

All-time rank in games above Expected Wins
2015: 43
2016: 47

HoME Outlook:
2016 didn’t quite go Ned’s way. Not like the last couple years have. He, himself, didn’t do an awful job, but the magic wasn’t there, and the team faded badly down the stretch. Wade Davis’ injury didn’t help, nor Mike Moustakas’, nor the one that hampered Alex Gordon, nor the one that sapped Lorenzo Cain’s power. You get the idea. Yost did reasonably well with what he had, and with better health the Rs could at least compete for the Wild Card next year, or depending on the Indians’ luck, maybe another Central title. Yet, Yost is almost 50 games under .500, was once fired right before the playoffs because of his tactical inabilities, and has won 90+ games in a season just once (in 2015, natch). It’s pretty bleak for him, and you wouldn’t want to put a lot of faith in his case.

Don Mattingly
All-time rank in wins
2015: 132
2016: 120

All-time rank in winning percentage
2015: 24
2016: 29

All-time rank in games above Pythagenpat
2015: 53
2016: 51

All-time rank in games above Expected Wins
2015: 51
2016: 48

HoME Outlook:
I don’t think he should have lost his job in Los Angeles, but there’s a lot behind the scenes I’m not privy to. And it’s not like the Dodgers won anything big under him despite three consecutive NL West titles to end his Dodger career. He’s a kid at age 55, and he’s had his share of success already. Of course, Mattingly’s is an unfinished story. His candidacy as a first baseman is clearly short of HoME standards. And his managerial campaign has a lot still to be told. Maybe he’ll one day be a combination candidate. We’ll have to wait to see.

Terry Collins
All-time rank in wins
2015: 76
2016: 69

All-time rank in winning percentage
2015: 85
2016: 84

All-time rank in games above Pythagenpat
2015: 85
2016: 83

All-time rank in games above Expected Wins
2015: 90
2016: 87

HoME Outlook:
Just one player got into 150 games for the Metropolitans this year (Curtis Granderson, exactly 150). One other player reached 140 (Asdrubal Cabrera, exactly 141). Just two pitchers made 30 starts for the men in blue and orange, and one of them was Bartolo Colon. That’s the kind of year it was in Flushing. And yet, Collins got the team into the Wild Card game despite half an ineffective season from Matt Harvey, and two-thirds of an effective season each from Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz. Seems like a pretty good job of managing from my seat, but I didn’t watch the team every day, and some do question Collins’ tactical choices. Overall, he’s a .500 manager 1850 games into his career. Wouldn’t you know that he’s also almost exactly average against Pythagenpat and against Expected Wins. So, basically, he’s Joe Average manager (at least among those with 1000 games managed). It’s possible that all those young Mets arms come together for several seasons, and the Mets steal the Nationals’ thunder over the remainder of this decade. Your guess is as good as mine. If that happened and Collins got the team back to the Fall Classic, he could start carving out an argument for some bronze. On a lark, I might lay tiny money on his long, long, long odds and hope for a big payout. Or I could buy a Powerball ticket the next time the jackpot reaches Never Ever Land, whichever.

John Farrell
All-time rank in wins
2015: 133
2016: 127

All-time rank in winning percentage
2015: 91
2016: 70

All-time rank in games above Pythagenpat
2015: 101
2016: 104

All-time rank in games above Expected Wins
2015: 101
2016: 87

HoME Outlook:
Farrell is early in his career, and he already has one title with the Red Sox in 2013. Plus, he’s set up with a wealthy organization with an impressive core of young offensive talent. He could certainly win another title in the next year or three. Of course, he could lose his job if he somehow finished last for the third time in four years in 2017. Age matters for managers since bulk really seems to matter, which makes Farrell at just 54 on opening day next season somewhat attractive. He certainly needs more bulk, and it would seem he needs to do more with the talent he has.

Mike Matheny
All-time rank in wins
2015: 134
2016: 133

All-time rank in winning percentage
2015: 11
2016: 13

All-time rank in games above Pythagenpat
2015: 54
2016: 55

All-time rank in games above Expected Wins
2015: 51
2016: 54

HoME Outlook:
Meh: 86 wins is pretty danged close to the second Wild Card, but it’s like finishing just one vote behind Jill Stein in last week’s election. Matheny wasn’t the worst thing about the Cards’ year, and in just five years at the helm, he’s averaging 92 wins and a .569 winning percentage. That’s a nice start to a career, especially in the modern age. Matheny potentially has a long career ahead of him. He’s well thought of as a leader of men, and if he isn’t a great tactical manager, we know from Terry Francona’s example that a guy can learn that stuff. The Cards are at that place where the roster is starting to turn over, and the veterans he inherited from Tony La Russa are aging out or moving on. We’ll learn a lot as Matheny molds the next-gen Redbirds.

Bob Melvin
All-time rank in wins
2015: 70
2016: 67

All-time rank in winning percentage
2015: 71
2016: 84

All-time rank in games above Pythagenpat
2015: 94
2016: 102

All-time rank in games above Expected Wins
2015: 96
2016: 109

HoME Outlook:
It doesn’t appear that Bob Melvin is a great manager, nor has he been an incredibly successful one. On the other hand, he got his first job at age 41. Next year will be his sixth full season in Oakland, but I’m predicting he won’t get through the year. Will he be hired again right away? That’s the question. If he puts in another decade as a .500 manager, he’s very much in the territory the Hall considers. For the HoME, he’s likely to need more than just that bulk.

Fixing a Hole: What we’re going to do about Clark Griffith, Frank Chance, and guys like them

Clark Griffith is the Lou Whitaker of HoME candidates. He was really good at lots of things, but great at none. But whereas Lou did all those very good things as a player so they added up to a plaque in the Hall of Miller and Eric, The Old Fox was very good at playing, then managing, then running a team. Three distinct baseball roles.

We have three distinct baseball wings at the HoME: players, managers, and pioneers/executives. As Miller mentioned the other day, the twain do not meet. Which simply means we need to get our twain on different twacks.

Getting the job done right is more important to us than foolish consistency. (Note the adjective), and it does seem silly to us to deny someone with a wide and deep impact a plaque just because they happened to have made their mark across several roles—just as we wouldn’t count out a player because his batting average, alone, didn’t cut it, but he did lots of other things well.

So we know we made an error by excluding this kind of candidate before, and the question becomes: What do we do about this? You’ll be no doubt shocked to learn that we have a plan.

Who are these candidates?

First off, we have to ask ourselves the qualifying question: What does a deserving combo candidate look like? Experience tells us that you got to keep this kind of solution simple but also clearly defined. So we’ve come up with a helpful rubric, a ten-to-one scale for measuring someone’s electability as a player. We start there because that’s where most of our honorees reside. We’ll use second basemen as an example

• 10: An inarguable HoMEr. A clear top-fifteen player at his position—Joe Morgan
• 9: Just over the line: Someone who’s about 15^th to 18^th at his position—Billy Herman
• 8: True borderline candidate: Jeff Kent
• 7: First tier down: Nearly electable, but clearly a notch below the borderline—Tony Lazzeri
• 6: Hall of the Very Good: Del Pratt
• 5: Stars with weak cases: Davey Lopes
• 4: Occasional All-Stars: Dick McAuliffe
• 3: Longtime regulars: Marty McManus
• 2: Just guys: Fernando Vina
• 1: Everyone else

Of course, you can apply this to managers and execs as well. There’s slots for 19 or 20 players per batting position, while 22 managers, and 28 execs will find a home in the HoME. Our feeling: You got to be roughly 6 or 7 or higher at two places to make it as a combo candidate. So, for example, Bucky Harris picked up about 15 WAR in his career, which makes him roughly a 2, like Fernando Vina. As a manager, Harris was a little above average for his career and a little better yet on peak. Call him roughly a 6 or 7. It’s not good enough in combination. By the same token, we’re not unelecting Buddy Bell, probably the worst manager of the last 70 years. He’s a player, not a combo candidate.

So who are these combination candidates? A rough guide to them would include:

• Frank Chance: A 7 at player and probably an 8 as a manager.
• Larry Doby: A 6 or 7 player whose credentials as a pioneer may or may not be at the level required
• Clark Griffith: An 8 player and a 7 manager.
• Hughie Jennings: A 7 or 8 player and a 6 or 7 manager
• Dickey Pearce: Invented the bunt and considered by some to be the best player of the period before George Wright’s emergence.

We’ve already elected a few guys who fall into the combo category:

• Cap Anson: Elected as player and manager
• Roger Bresnahan: Elected as a pioneer but had an 8 playing career
• Fred Clarke: Elected as player and manager
• Charlie Comiskey: Elected as an pioneer/exec and had a 7 managing career
• Connie Mack: Elected as a manager and probably at least a 6 or 7 exec
• John McGraw: Elected as a manager, an 8 player, and perhaps a top-level GM too
• Al Spalding: Elected as exec, had a 6 or 7 playing career
• Joe Torre: Elected as player and manager

It’s possible that Eddie Collins also fits the bill as a player and an exec, but we haven’t studied his GM decisions yet.

A few others don’t quite make it for one reason or another:

• Al Dark: a 5 player and a 3 manager
• Hugh Duffy: a 6 or 7 player and the worst manager in history until Jimmie Wilson
• Jim Fregosi: a 7 player and a 2 manager
• Gil Hodges: a 6 or 7 player but a 2 manager
• Fielder Jones: 7 player, 2 or 3 manager
• Bob Lemon: Not enough managing to go with a 6 or 7 playing career
• Red Schoendienst: A 5 or 6 player and a 3 manager

As you can see, we have at least five combo candidates to consider. There are likely a few more that we just haven’t spotted yet.

From the Who to the How

We love transparency, and we ain’t afraid to admit when we been wrong. So here’s our plan for dealing with this combo issue.

• We’re going to keep on electing our pioneer/executive candidates apace.
• After we finish up those folks, we’re going to review the managers. We’ve already decided that Joe Torre stays as a manager, and Anson and Clarke will only be players. That means we’ll need to elect two managers and one player to backfill those slots.
• Torre’s player plaque and the manager plaques for Anson and Clarke won’t go away, but they’ll become museum pieces. We’ll keep them around to remind everyone of how great they each were in those roles, but they won’t officially count toward our totals after we reassess.
• That reassessment will probably take place, therefore, after the BBWAA and Veterans Committee elect their next slate of honorees. That means we’ll be doing a soft micro-reset for the 2017 election by rolling Torre’s, Anson’s, and Clarke’s vacated spots up into our 2017 deliberations. Which in turn means that once our 2017 election is over, we’ll be officially in parity with the Hall in both timeline and total honorees for these three wings.

So that’s our plan. Fans of Ee-Yah, the Peerless Leader, the Old Fox, and other combo characters can take heart in that we’ll be giving them a good once over once again.

What kind of players make good managers?

Let’s take a quick break from execs and pioneers and return to our friends the managers. What can we tell about managers from their playing days?

I took our collection of skippers with 1,000 or more games managed, and I removed those whose careers were all or mostly before World War II. That leaves us with 88 managers, including those still active. Now we can look demographically, if you will, at their playing careers to see what information may lurk there.

Position
There are at least two old canards about managers and their playing-years positions:

1. Pitchers don’t make good managers
2. Catchers do make good managers.

With 88 men our sample size isn’t very big, but below we’ll see how those clichés play out. The EXP column below is based on a 60/40 split between position players and pitchers. For this purpose, we’ll count DHes as first baseman. Each fielding position, therefore, is expected to get 7 representatives. (.6 * 88) / 8 = 6.6

POS   #MGRS  EXP     W-L      PCT.
==================================
ALL POS. AVERAGE              .515
ALL POS. MEDIAN               .508
P       4    35   3816-3716   .507
C      26     7  25739-24301  .514
1B/DH   9     7  10193-9467   .518
2B     13     7  18151-16261  .527
3B      9     7   9302-9371   .498
SS      9     7   9767-9296   .512
LF      8     7   9448-8975   .513
CF      3     7   2519-2362   .516
RF      7     7   7891-7417   .515

So what we see here is that there are many fewer pitchers than expected, many more catchers than expected, a few more second basemen than expected, and several fewer centerfielders than expected. We can also observe that pitchers do indeed have a lower winning percentage than all but one other position, though it’s hard to say whether that’s a real thing or not since it’s just four guys. Then again: Joe Kerrigan.

Only two positions are dramatically different from the group in terms of winning percentage: second base to the good, third base to the bad. Here’s the breakout:

Second base

• Sparky Anderson: 2194-1834, .545
• Dave Bristol: 657-764, .462 (was a minor-league second baseman)
• Terry Collins: 840-852, .496 (minor-league second baseman)
• Phil Garner: 985-1054, .483
• Davey Johnson: 2013-1372, .562
• Tony La Russa: 2728-2365, .536
• Jerry Manuel: 704-684, .507
• Billy Martin: 1253-1013, .553
• Gene Mauch: 1902-2037, .483
• Danny Murtaugh: 1115-950, .540
• Bill Rigney: 1239-1321, .484
• Red Schoendienst: 1041-955, .522
• Earl Weaver: 1480-1060, .583 (was a minor-league second baseman)

Not bad. Three of the more impressive winning percentages in recent history, and a couple really long and productive careers. Now for the flipside—children may need to cover their eyes. Given how small our sample is, this could simply be random variation. Then again, here’s some conjecture. eight of these guys had either no major league appearances or were out of the big leagues very quickly. Second base is a position where if you lose a step, you’re done: you’ve already moved there because you couldn’t handle shortstop, you’re not a catcher, and you don’t have the bat to play any other position. That’s why college second baseman don’t get drafted very often, and in this case, it’s possible that baseball’s natural selection process led these guys to early exits as players, which then gave them ample time to learn managing in the minors.

Third base

• Buddy Bell: 519-724, .418
• Bobby Cox: 2504-2001, .556
• Chuck Dressen: 1008-973, .509
• Jimmy Dykes: 1406-1541, 477
• Fred Haney: 629-757, .454
• Pinky Higgins: 560-556, .502
• Art Howe: 1129-1137, .498
• Jim Riggleman: 662-824, .445 (was a minor-league third baseman)
• Don Zimmer: 885-858, .508

A little Buddy Bell goes a long way. Without him, the third basemen are 8783-8647, .504. Still pretty bad for this group, but not as hideous. Seriously, if your team is even rumored to be interested in Buddy Bell as a manager, you should immediately switch allegiances. On the other hand, a lot of Bobby Cox goes even further. He’s the only fellow in this group who is above the average winning percentage of our 88-man pool (Dressen is jusssst above the median and Zimmer hits it exactly). Without Cox, this group goes 6798-7370, a cool .480 percentage. Maybe Robin Ventura and Matt Williams weren’t destined for greatness after all….

Major League Tenure

Well, maybe the key is being around the big-league game a whole lot. Then you know the ins and outs and can related to the players more. Setting aside the four pitchers, let’s look at the number of MLB PAs the other 84 pilots had. We’ll break them into a few groups for convenience:

PAS        #MGRS    W-L       PCT.
==================================
AVERAGE                      .515
MEDIAN                       .509
10000+       2   1584-1900   .455
7500-10000  10  11607-11038  .513
5000-7500   14  17028-15163  .529
2500-5000   13  13782-12495  .524
1000-2500   12  10999-10965  .501
500-1000     8  12226-11582  .514
1-500       14  14620-13609  .518
0           11  11164-10698  .511

This way of looking at our data shows that managers with careers of 2500–7500 PAs have won more often than those with careers of other lengths. And it’s not that close. Who are these guys?

5000–7500

• Hank Bauer: 594-544, .522
• Lou Boudreau: 1162-1124, .487
• Felipe Alou: 1033-1021, .503
• Al Dark: 994-954, .510
• Leo Durocher: 2008-1709, .540
• Jim Fregosi: 1028-1094, .484
• Phil Garner: 985-1054, .483
• Ozzie Guillen: 747-710, .513
• Mike Hargrove: 1188-1173, .503
• Pinky Higgins: 560-556, .502
• Davey Johnson: 2013-1372, .562
• Al Lopez: 1410-1004, .584
• Steve O’Neill: 1040-821, .559
• Lou Piniella: 1835-1713, .517
• Mike Scioscia: 1417-1180, .546
• Luke Sewell: 606-644, .485
• Bill Virdon: 995-921, 519

2500–5000

• Chuck Dressen: 1008-973, .509
• Cito Gaston: 894-837, .516
• Joe Girardi: 816-647, .558
• Art Howe: 1129-1137, .498
• Billy Martin: 1253-1013, .553
• Danny Murtaugh: 1115-950, .540
• Buck Rodgers: 784-774, .503
• Billy Southworth: 1044-704, .597
• Casey Stengel: 1905-1842, .508
• Birdie Tebbets: 748-705, .515
• Harry Walker: 630-604, .511
• Dick Williams: 1571-1451, .520
• Don Zimmer: 885-858, .508

I’m not sure what to make of this, quite frankly. I might speculate that good players last longer and may have a coaching/knowledge component to their skillset, but Ted Williams famously didn’t. It’s not quite so simple. I’m stumped, but with small numbers of managers, we might simply be seeing variation at work. And speaking of good players, our final piece of manager demography is what caliber of player these managers were on the field.

WAR   #MGRS     W-L       PCT.
===============================
AVERAGE                  .515
MEDIAN                   .508
40+      9   9828-9898   .498
25-40   10  11293-10441  .520
10-25   12  13409-11973  .528
0-10    29  31260-29817  .512
0       12  13204-12311  .517
0-(10)  16  17832-16726  .516

As we might have expected, this way of looking at things mirrors what we saw in our previous view. Better players get more PAs and rack up more value. This time, though, the 10–25 WAR group stands out a little more from the pack. Let’s have a look at them:

10–25ers

• Bud Black: 649-713, .477
• Roger Craig: 738-737, .500
• Charlie Grimm: 1287-1067, .547
• Ozzie Guillen: 747-710, .513
• Art Howe: 1129-1137, .498
• Al Lopez: 1410-1004, .584
• Steve O’Neill: 1040-821, .559
• Lou Piniella: 1835-1713, .517
• Billy Southworth: 1044-704, .597
• Casey Stengel: 1905-1842, .508
• Bill Virdon: 995-921, 519
• Harry Walker: 630-604, .511

Again, there’s not much to distinguish these folks from other groups. There’s shorter and longer careers. NL and AL guys. There’s infielders, outfielders, catchers, and pitchers. Curiously there are no second basemen. There’s guys who started in the 1930s and the 2000s.

Conclusions? Ha!

What are we supposed to take from all this? In one sense we could say that Davey Johnson is probably just about the person of best fit for what we’ve seen. He’s a second baseman, his career WAR total is 27.5 (just above the 10–25 group we discussed a moment ago), and his PA total falls into the 5000–7000 range. In all those ways, he’s a member of subgroups that have the highest winning percentages among the 88 men with 1000 games managed. Beyond that, I got nuthin’. I thought maybe we’d see something, but there’s little to connect success in the dugout to success on the field.

And maybe that’s about right? With the possible exception of catchers, baseball players aren’t selected for their soft skills, their people skills. They are selected for specific athletic attributes. Soft skills may well be randomly distributed among the populace and among ballplayers (again with the possible exception of catchers). In which case, the data we’ve just looked at make perfect sense by making little if any sense.