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Babe Ruth
Would You Like Some Pudding?: Seeing How Our Latest MLEs Prove Out
Over the past couple weeks, we’ve described some changes to our Negro Leagues MLEs, and today we’ll take a look at how they look in the aggregate. Do our new totals for hitters pass the sniff test?
Before we get to that, however, I’m in the business of continuous improvement with the MLEs, and this past week, I made one more important change. Tip of the cap to Friend of the HoME Kris Gardner who recently suggested that when a season comes in under 200 plate appearances, I ought to blend the z-scores from that season, not the resultant wOBAs I get from all this figuring. It worked very well and resolves some instabilities in the system that I’d never really liked. Just wanted to let you know that. I promise sometime this summer I’ll get the entire system down on paper. That is, “paper.”
Now, let’s look at the engine block. I’ve completely changed out the original engine in the last year, and this past week bored out the valves. I’ve chromed out the exterior and installed a deluxe interior. Let’s see if she’s roadworthy.
Offensive Production
Using the latest MLEs, where do Negro Leaguers fall among their contemporaries? I’m going to use both the more analytical batting runs (Rbat) and old favorite OPS+ to see whether we’re close.
About 90 percent of all players get translated into the National League, so I’ll start there. You may wonder why I choose to place them by default into the NL. The answer partly comes from the fact that Jackie Robinson broke through in the NL, and that’s a little personal highlight. But in reality the bigger reason has to do with, well, Babe Ruth. And Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, and Jimmie Foxx. For whatever reason, the AL cornered the market on big bats during this time. American League hitters comprised 17 of the top 26 Rbat totals during this time. Despite having only 35 of the 78 batters with 200 or more Rbat in this time, the AL hitters led the NL hitters by 1,500 Rbat. Most of that? Babe Ruth’s 1,335 Rbat. My point: the AL skews much higher at the top than the more balanced NL, and it plays havoc with my perceptions of players’ relative merits. Thus, the NL.
Below you’ll find the top 20 NL players in Rbat whose career took place during the Negro Leagues era or the integration era (roughly 1901 to the early 1960s) and debuted prior to 1949. I’m not counting 17 year old Willie Mays, but I will count players whose career began in the 1890s provided they played most of their career in the 1900s.
RK PLAYER RBAT
1 Stan Musial 869
2 Rogers Hornsby 861
3 Mel Ott 773
4 Honus Wagner 638
Josh Gibson 509 (as 1B)
5 Johnny Mize 499
6 Paul Waner 497
Oscar Charleston 464
John Beckwith 462
Jud Wilson 443
Turkey Stearnes 435
Heavy Johnson 429
Josh Gibson 401 (as C)
Bullet Rogan 399
Cristobal Torriente 397
7 Duke Snider 386
8 Fred Clarke 384
9 Ralph Kiner 365
10 Arky Vaughan 362
11 Chuck Klein 339
12 Zack Wheat 339
13 Bill Terry 328
14 Sherry Magee 328
Mule Suttles 328
15 Joe Medwick 323
Hurley McNair 321
16 Babe Herman 319
17 Jack Fournier 304
18 Hack Wilson 303
Charlie Smith 297
Jackie Robinson 288
Pete Hill 276
19 Enos Slaughter 273
Martin Dihigo 268
Monte Irvin 267
20 Kiki Cuyler 264
Alejandro Oms checks in with 253 Rbat, which puts him between Dolph Camilli (#23) and Bob Elliot (#24). Julian Castillo clocks in at 226 Rbat, which lies between Gabby Hartnett (#30) and Jimmy Sheckard (#31). And, finally, John Henry Lloyd ties Frank Chance at 209 Rbat, the 39th highest total on the list.
Forty-three MLBers made this list and 15 MLEers. About one quarter of this group, then, are Negro Leaguers.
I only translated four top hitters into the AL because they started their MLB careers there. Minnie Minoso lands on 361 Rbat, a shade behind Goose Goslin (#17). Larry Doby’s 327 Rbat put him one notch lower, trailing Elmer Flick (#18). Another notch down comes Luke Easter who slides in below Earl Averill (#19). Finally Willard Brown ends up with 260 Rbat, a little behind Ken Williams (#23).
Here’s what I’m seeing, and you can tell me if you disagree.
- We’ve got the right guys coming out on top among Negro Leagues players.
- They come through as top-flight players relative to their white peers.
That’s what we’d expect if the MLEs are well-tuned. I’ll come back to the five “Yeah, buts” in your head in a little bit. First here’s what the OPS+ charts look like. Well, let me couch this first by saying that I’m playing around with turning MLE Rbat into MLE trad stats. I’m not ready to roll this out big time, and you’ll probably see why below. The relationship between Rbat and OPS+ is tight among MLBers (R-squared of Rbat/PA vs OPS+ of .964). Among my MLEs, less so (R-squared .789). Also, 5,000 minimum plate appearances.
RK PLAYER RBAT
1 Rogers Hornsby 175
2 Stan Musial 159
3 Johnny Mize 158
John Beckwith 158
4 Mel Ott 155
Josh Gibson 154
5 Honus Wagner 151
6 Ralph Kiner 149
7 Hack Wilson 144
Heavy Johnson 143
8 Jack Fournier 142
9 Babe Herman 141
10 Duke Snider 140
Jud Wilson 140
Buck Leonard 139
11 Wally Berger 138
Jackie Robinson 138
12 Chuck Klein 137
13 Sherry Magee 137
Monte Irvin 137
14 Arky Vaughan 136
15 Dolph Camilli 136
16 Bill Terry 136
17 Frank Chance 135
18 Joe Medwick 134
19 Paul Waner 134
Turkey Stearnes 134
20 Chick Hafey 133
Cristobal Torriente 132
Oscar Charleston 131
Mule Suttles 128
Bullet Rogan 127
Roy Campanella 124
Julian Castillo 124
Dobie Moore 124
Hurley McNair 122
Martin Dihigo 121
Forty-eight NL hitters racked up an OPS+ of at least 120 during the time period in question. Seventeen Negro Leaguers come out with estimates above 120. Again, we’re a little bit above a quarter of all players coming from the MLE pool. I feel pretty good about that. Feels like a reasonable figure considering both the difference in the sizes of the relative talent pools (whites outnumbered players of color by about 6:1) and the economic incentives that sports created for dark-skinned players who may or may not have had labor skills otherwise. Keep holding those “Yeah, but” questions.
Value Stats
One final table. This time we’ve got WAR among both NL and AL players.
RK PLAYER WAR
1 Babe Ruth 162
2 Ty Cobb 151
3 Tris Speaker 134
4 Honus Wagner 131
5 Stan Musial 128
6 Rogers Hornsby 127
7 Eddie Collins 124
8 Ted Williams 122
9 Lou Gehrig 114
10 Mel Ott 111
11 Nap Lajoie 107
12 Jimmie Foxx 93
Oscar Charleston 85
13 Charlie Gehringer 83
John Henry Lloyd 83
Willie Wells 81
14 Joe DiMaggio 79
15 Arky Vaughan 78
Jud Wilson 77
16 Luke Appling 77
Josh Gibson 75 (1B)
17 Sam Crawford 75
Turkey Stearnes 75
18 Paul Waner 74
John Beckwith 74
Jackie Robinson 74
19 Harry Heilmann 72
20 Johnny Mize 71
21 Frankie Frisch 71
Pete Hill 71
Bullet Rogan 70
22 Bobby Wallace 70
Cristobal Torriente 70
Josh Gibson
70 (C)NLers. Twelve Negro Leaguers projected into the NL would rank somewhere between Wagner (#1) and Fred Clark (#10). Generally, having twelve of the top 34 players in the game come from the Negro Leagues feels pretty solid.
Yeah, But
1) Josh Gibson has a 202 OPS+ on the Negro Leagues database, why doesn’t his offense look more like Babe Ruth’s? Also, why doesn’t he have more WAR?
First off, we discount the Negro Leagues by about 20 percent off the top. Second, one of Gibson’s most noteworthy seasons happened in Mexico, which gets a deeper discount yet. Several of his seasons occurred during the 1940s when the NNL and NAL get a little extra discount because they lost so much talent to the Mexican League. Josh had a seventeen-year career, but depending on what position you see him playing in MLB, he gets either 7,000 or 9,000 plate appearances. Seven thousand is the upper limit of the career length of prewar catchers. Many noncatcher Hall of Fame careers exceed nine thousand plate appearances, by as much as 4,000 PAs. Ruth batted about 1,600 more times than my projection for Josh at first base, and the Bambino did a lot of damage per plate appearance. Prorating to Ruth’s plate appearances tacks on 95 Rbat to Gibson, which still wouldn’t be within 700 of Ruth’s total. Charleston and Gibson were routinely dubbed the Black Babe Ruth or something similar. Ruth revolutionized the sport, and as he outhomered half the teams in the league and drew rafts of walks as a result, he occupied a position no one else in history can really match in comparison to their leagues. Comparing someone to Ruth is like “The New Dylan” or “The New Beatles.” It’s a silly comparison because Ruth made the scene at a specific time and place that allowed him to dominate in ways he couldn’t have just ten or twenty years later. It’s also worth noting that not all of Josh Gibson’s performances have made the Negro Leagues Database yet. He dominated the Puerto Rican Winter League and spent time in Cuba too. The book is not closed, but the book does show him to be a dominating hitter: 154 OPS+es don’t grow on trees.
2) Oscar Charleston looks super low!
Oscar Charleston looks low because Charleston declined precipitously after age 31. Through age 31, his raw OPS+es do look Ruthian on paper. His career year in 1924 ends up at a 223 OPS+ and 11.6 WAR. That’s amazing! It’s also pretty close to par for the course for Ruth. Again, Ruth is NOT someone who should ever be used as a basis of comparison for any player, let alone for Negro Leaguers. After age 31, Charlie lost his wheels, and the rest of his game dimmed somewhat. Pictures of Charleston tell the story. He gained weight in his thirties, precipitating a move to first base. The very difference in positional value between centerfield and first base ate into his overall contributions. His bat slowed a bit. He didn’t stink at the plate, but where the sky seemed the limit in his prime, he became instead another good hitter and stayed that until the end. I estimate his seasons from age 32 onward translating to roughly a 105 OPS+. That’s what dragged his OPS+ all the way down to 131 from its dizzying heights. Nonetheless, I estimate he amassed the most career value of any Negro Leagues hitter.
3) What happened to Pop Lloyd?
Lloyd’s numbers tumbled a bit because the meat of his career took place during a time when the Negro Leagues were still maturing in quality. According to one of my Negro Leagues advisors, the establishment of the Negro National League and the Eastern Colored League increased the quality of competition in Black baseball. Per my previous article, I have incrementally stepped the Negro Leagues down from AAA in 1920 to AA level in 1905. Lloyd debuted in 1906. Also, the Cuban leagues got dialed back as well. This affects Lloyd, Pete Hill, Grant Johnson, and Cristobal Torriente the most. In the case of Lloyd, he loses about 30 points of OPS+ versus his mark at the Negro Leagues Database (a little over twenty percent), but he nonetheless ranks second to Charleston in the overall value we estimate that he created.
4) Dude, what’s up with John Beckwith and Heavy Johnson?
I wouldn’t die on the Heavy Johnson hill. We will never have information for the first half-dozen years of his career. The last several years he appears to have split between midwestern semipro teams and brief appearances in the Negro Leagues, and we have precious little information on him. On the other hand, dude could really hit. Beckwith, however, leaves a longer paper trail. His 168 OPS+ in the Negro Leagues Database trails Oscar Charleston by just five points. It looks a lot like the first half of Oscar’s career: brilliant. On the other hand, his thirties occurred during the peak depression years when leagues and teams folded or moved to barnstorming arrangements. We lose a lot of the scent after 1931. But what we do have shows that he earned the nickname “Boom Boom.” He didn’t draw lots of walks but let the power do the talking. The figures I’ve presented for him above should be taken seriously as indicators that he could rake. Curiously, my recent changes to fielding play up for him because while he has awful fielding stats, they come in a somewhat small sample, which my new routine, therefore, dampens down. If enough new fielding data came to light, he could lose some overall value if his glove still looks awful.
5) Great, Eric, but these numbers are noticeably lower than the ones you posted last year. Do we chuck the old ones?
I would yes. I believe these new numbers are more mathematically and logically sound. As ever, I reserve the right to make changes to improve the method. But right now, you’re getting the best I can reason out. I know they are lower, and that’s annoying, but there’s a lot to learn, and as I keep continuing down this path, there’s always another screw to tighten. Thanks for staying with me on these. And you can always make your adjustments! Think I’m coming in too low? Tack on ten percent or whatever you think feels right. I share these with you because they are estimates that can serve as guidelines for your own exploration. I would never say that these MLEs are “correct.” What I strive to say is that they are as rigorous and internally consistent as I can make them. They might prove a little conservative ultimately. I make liberal use measures of central tendency, as I believe is called for, and I do have to blend seasons sometimes to ensure I’m not estimating .400 hitters on the basis of fewer than fifty plate appearances. I think you already know that, and, again, you have my blessing to adjust upwards if you feel the need. But on the whole, I think I’m closer to an accurate method now for hitters than at any time in the past, and the leaderboards above demonstrate that my MLE method reliably produces results that make sense within the context of the major leagues.
Next time we’ll probably talk about pitching. That’s a madhouse topic that I’m kind of loathe to get into. We’ll see.
The Best Offensive Runs Ending A Career
About a year ago, maybe two, or hell, it could be five, the Play Index over at Baseball Reference changed its name to Stathead. Like a lot of things with a name change, this seemed nothing but cosmetic. Don’t get me wrong, a cosmetic change to something that’s awesome means that thing remains awesome. At some point after the change to Stathead, Baseball Reference hired Adam Darowski, who you may know from the Hall of Stats. Recently, he’s been Tweeting videos about how to use Stathead in a bunch of ways that were new and different to me. Certainly more than just cosmetic. (Oh, and if you don’t subscribe to Stathead, please do. It’ll change your baseball loving life). One video he shared showed how to find home run leaders home run hitters in the last 162 games of their careers. It included Larry Hisle, so that’s cool!
It also got me thinking about those who had the most impressive ends to their careers. Checking out seasonal WAR is fun. But inspired by the list of home run greats in their final 162 games, I wanted more than the last season. I’m looking at the best last 162 games of a player’s career. Unfortunately, that’s not how WAR works. But WPA can work like that. Win Probability Added looks at win expectancy by plate appearance, crediting or debiting a player based on how much his performance helped his team’s odds of winning.
All-time leaders in WPA include the usual suspects – Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Ted Williams, and Hank Aaron top the list. As for single-season greats, Bonds holds three of the top four spots. Both Ruth and Lou Gehrig appear four times in the top 20. It’s not a perfect stat. No stat is. But it’s a lot of fun.
So without further ado, here are the best 17 stretches of 162 games by WPA to end a career. Why 17? Because that’s how many reached 4.0. For reference, 5.07 would get you into a tie for 498th on the single season list.
#17 Del Bissonette, 4.0
You’re to be forgiven if you’re unfamiliar with Bissonette’s career, as it lasted just from 1928-1931 with 35 games in 1933 thrown in. Trivia fans might know him as the first player with a grand slam and a bases loaded triple in the same game. For a spell, Bissonette was a decent enough first baseman for the Brooklyn Robins and Dodgers. So how did his career end? Volleyball, of course. According to his SABR bio by Will Anderson, Dazzy Vance landed on Bissonette’s left ankle, rupturing his Achilles tendon. Not a problem, Del thought. He’ll just have an operation. Unfortunately for Bissonette, he decided to have that operation in the 1930s, and he developed blood poisoning. According to Anderson, “He hovered on the brink of death for days; did not gain strength back for months.” Yikes!
#16 Ted Savage, 4.0
Unlike Bissonette, Ted Savage wasn’t such a good player, managing just 1.8 WAR for his nine-year career. The outfielder played for eight teams, getting into 100 games in a season just twice. One of those times was 1970 for the Milwaukee Brewers. That year, he managed 2.8 oWAR. In tie games, he hit .300/.429/.600, and late and close he managed .300/.488/.500. All of this was out of character for a guy with six seasonal stints hitting below .200 for a team, and slashing just .233/.334/.361 for his career, but it happened.
#15 Dave Nilsson, 4.0
#15 Dave Nilsson, 4.0
Just as I’m contractually obligated to mention Coors Field whenever I talk about Todd Helton, I must mention Dave Nilsson’s home country whenever discussing the Brisbanian (Please tell me that’s the right word!) backstop. In 1999, his final season in the majors, Nilsson might have produced his best numbers, making his only All-Star team and totaling 3.4 oWAR. Kind of famously, at the time, Nilsson retired after his age-29 campaign, choosing not to better his 1999 salary of $5.6 million by hitting the free agent market. Instead, he chose to go home to Australia and represent his country in the Olympics where he hit a mere .565 and slugged .957. Sadly, Australia went 2-5.
#14 Tommy Henrich, 4.1
Seems like “Old Reliable” was quite reliable when he was old. Actually, he was a terrific player throughout his career, 11th in history among retired players with 5,500 or fewer plate appearances. He also hit the first walk-off home run in World Series history. And in his final full season, covered on this list, he hit .316/.412/.551 in high leverage situations and .316/.445/.658 in medium leverage situations compared to only .245/.393/.395 in low leverage spots. Unfortunately, he also broke a toe and fractured his transverse vertebrae that year. That off-season, he learned that he needed knee surgery but didn’t get it. He remained quite good in 1950, making his fifth All-Star team, but he was forced to retire after playing only 73 games that year.
#13 Ted Williams, 4.1
Perhaps you’ve heard of him. He finished 13th in the MVP voting in his final season, put up an impressive 190 OPS+, and homered against Jack Fisher in the final plate appearance of his career.
#12 Larry Hisle, 4.1
#12 Larry Hisle, 4.1
Hisle was a wonderful player and kind of the inspiration for this post. In 1978, he produced his second consecutive year of 5+ WAR. Off to another outstanding start in 1979, on April 20, he tore his rotator cuff during a game in Baltimore. It was all downhill from there. Rotator cuff surgery was followed by the removal of a bone spur from the same shoulder. In all, he played just 79 games from 1979 through 1982. In what was essentially a half year of play over his last four years, he hit 15 homers and posted a 120 OPS+.
#11 Darren Daulton, 4.3
As I write these blurbs, I sometimes check out Wikipedia for some fun facts. For Daulton, I was reminded that Bill James called him the 25th best catcher ever in the 2001 update to his Historical Baseball Abstract. Not to give Bill too hard a time, but that seems, um, nuts. Daulton was not great defensively, played in 100+ games only four times in his career, and in his best five-year run, he averaged only 3.6 WAR (a total he reached just three times in his career). Though I don’t mind admitting that James has forgotten more about baseball than I’ll ever know, Daulton is almost unquestionably not the 25th best catcher ever. MAPES+ has him 91st. Anyway, the guy who totaled just 4.4 WAR in his 20s and 22.9 in his career played infrequently in his early days because he wasn’t that good and later in his career because of nagging knee issues. The long-time Phillie was traded to the Marlins for the 1997 stretch drive, even homering for the Fish in Game 3. It’s nice that he went out on top. That doesn’t make him one of the 25 best ever at the position.
#10 Joe DiMaggio, 4.4
Three players finished their careers with 78-80 WAR and fewer than 8,000 plate appearances, Dan Brouthers, Arky Vaughan, and DiMaggio. I share this because I looked it up thinking DiMaggio would lead this list by a little, maybe by more than a little. Nope. By the way, by the end of 2021, Mike Trout will have more career WAR than all of them in over 1,500 fewer trips to the plate.
#9 David Ortiz, 4.4
The Red Sox great led the AL in doubles, runs batted in, and slugging percentage in his final year of 2016. He said that he was in pain daily, but he played in 137+ games in each of his final four seasons, topping out at 151 as he exited the game. I love David Ortiz, so that’s all I’m going to say here.
#8 Mickey Mantle, 4.6
I remember hearing sad stories about Mickey Mantle tragically falling under a .300 batting average in his final season. The truth is that Mantle was still a good player until he hung ‘em up, but he wasn’t a great player for a while. In his last four years, he hit only .254. And in his last six years, those after his age-30 season, he averaged only 3.3 WAR. Still very good, but not great.
#7 Billy Herman, 4.7
#7 Billy Herman, 4.7
Herman is a Hall of Famer and a HoMEr (at least he was), and in his age-36 season, he was quite good, totaling 4.1 WAR for the Dodgers and Braves. His final partial year with the Braves was a clunker, but let’s not get into that here. The reason he makes this list has to be the clutch numbers he put up in 1946. In high leverage situations, he hit .413/.495/.511, and late and close it was .349/.474/.492.
#6 Babe Ruth, 4.8
In his last year with the Yankees, Ruth was worth 5.0 WAR. Three years earlier, when he was 36, he had his final 10-win season. I’ve always loved the trivia nugget that Ruth hit his first and last homers for a team in Boston, Hank Aaron did so for a team in Milwaukee, and Willie Mays did the same for a team in New York. Of course, as they’re now third, second, and sixth in career home runs, respectively, the question doesn’t have the same panache it once did. Anyway, as his career was winding down, Ruth wanted to become a manager, and things started going poorly in New York. By 1935, according to his SABR bio written by Allan Wood, Yankee owner Jacob Ruppert didn’t want Ruth on the team any longer. By the time Spring Training began, Ruth’s #3 had been given to George Twinkletoes Selkirk, and his locker was used to store firewood. Really? Firewood? A deal was worked out between Ruppert and Braves owner Emil Fuchs to bestow the titles of “assistant manager” and “vice president” upon Ruth, as he would continue playing and presumably help Boston’s gate. In his first game with the Braves, Ruth homered against Carl Hubbell. After his second homer five games later, Ruth slumped awfully, hitting just .068/.281/.136 over his next seventeen contests. Then he homered three times in a losing effort against the Pirates. Ruth’s spot in the batting order came up in the ninth, but it was Joe Mowry who batted against Waite Hoyt rather than Ruth. That’s because Ruth had, according to Jack Zerby’s SABR article, “excused himself from the game” after hitting what’s called the longest home run in the history of Forbes Field in the seventh. The Bambino would have only five games and zero hits left in his career.
Do you know why Ruth exited the game in the seventh? Was it to go out on top? If so, why’d he play again, especially considering all of those games were on the road? Please share in the comments!
#5 Will Clark, 4.9
Will Clark may or may not be the racist former teammate Jeffrey Leonard claimed he was. But his one-time defense of John Rocker certainly suggests something less than positive about Clark. I’m not sure he’s the “cackling douche” Deadspin calls him, but now I’ve used the words “cackling douche” in a post, so my writing career is complete. And it’s clear that writer Jeff Pearlman isn’t a fan. I admit that I have no idea how Clark actually felt or feels. I share only because it’s one of the main things I remember about him.
A quality racists and non-racists tend to share is love of family. And Clark showed his upon retiring after a very successful 2000 season to help his wife care for his two-year-old autistic son. Slashing .301/.413/.473 in Baltimore, Clark was shipped to the Cardinals at the trade deadline, and he improved on that line to the tune of .345/.426/.655. All told, it was his best season by WAR since the end of his peak in 1991.
#4 Ellis Burks, 5.2
Ellis Burks, like so many others, saw his game decline and come to an end rather quickly. At age 37, he remained a healthy star in 2002. By the next year, he was hurt a good bit but remained a pretty decent hitter when healthy. And by 2004, he was broken down and not very good. Everything considered, it’s quite surprising to see him this high on the list. No, it’s not as surprising as Jack Savage making an appearance, but surprising nonetheless.
In his 99 high leverage plate appearances in 2002, Burks hit .398/.459/.705. His late and close line was .327/.431/.655. In 2003, Burks was even better, despite his limited time in the lineup: .400/.478/.953 in high leverage situations and /393/.433/.429 late and close.
#3 Mickey Cochrane, 5.5
After being sold/traded by the A’s to the to the Tigers in the winter after the 1933 season, Cochrane was named player-manager, certainly not an unusual role in the 1930s. He was MVP his first year in Detroit, though with his weakest WAR in five years. He also led the team to the World Series that year, losing to St. Louis. A year later, however, Detroit got its revenge against the Cubs. As a sort of reward, he was given the job of general manager after that victory, something far less common than serving as player-manager.
According to his SABR bio, written by Charlie Bevis, the pressure of these multiple responsibilities led to some sort of a breakdown in 1936. Recovered to start the 1937 season, Cochrane was off to another excellent start, until a Bump Hadley pitch that nearly killed him ended his career. Unlike Burks, it’s no surprise to see Cochrane here, as he remained a very good player when his career was cut short.
#2 Roberto Clemente, 6.0
And speaking of careers cut short, we all know the story of the Puerto Rican Pirate great who died in a plane crash while delivering aid to earthquake victims in Nicaragua. In his final season, Clemente made his 15th All-Star team, won his 12th Gold Glove, finished 13th in the MVP race, and totaled 4.8 WAR in only 102 games.
#1 Barry Bonds, 6.0
We hear the term “cancel culture” bandied about a great deal these days. To be honest, I don’t think I know precisely what it means. I know, however, that when political figures remain in their roles and continue to be invited onto television shows, they have absolutely, positively not been cancelled. It may be 14 years ago now, but I’m certain this term could have been used to describe the end of the career of the great Barry Bonds. At age 42, the guy let the National League with a .480 on base percentage. The very next year, 2008, the Minnesota Twins finished one game behind the White Sox in the battle for the AL Central. That year, they played Denard Span in right field although center was his main position. And they played Carlos Gomez in center, he of the .258/.296/.360 line. Are you telling me that Bonds at DH or in the outfield, with Jason Kubel taking the other position wouldn’t have resulted in a couple of wins? Benching Delmon Young would have been a nice option as well. Yeah, I say Bonds was cancelled.
Concluding Thoughts
Well, that’s it for this week. Oh, you’re wondering when are those 1950s elections coming? I don’t know. All I can guarantee is that we want them to occur as much as you do and that we’re doing everything we can to make that happen.
Miller
HoME 2.0, Elections of 1941 and 1946
As we enter our fifth pair of elections, there are currently eleven players receiving a vote from one of us but not the other. That’s a level we have never seen before, though it’s not necessarily a bad sign. Three patterns have emerged in terms of those players. Eric is more confident in the rankings of Negro Leaguers. Miller credits more early-day pitchers with greatness. And Eric has worked through some chronological questions, which has allowed him to vote for more early position players.
Spoiler alert – all three of these patterns persist through our 1940s elections. And while the first two seem like they’ll exist for some time, Miller intends to eliminate the third heading into the 1950s. But for now, let’s see how we voted in the 1940s.
1941 Election 2.0
The 1931 election the first time around was one of the historically oddest we’ve seen. Eric voted for nine players, Miller for four, yet only two were elected, Home Run Baker and Iron Man Joe McGinnity. Miller led his list with Pud Galvin, a guy Eric begrudgingly supported 45 elections later. And Eric voted for Jim McCormick, a player who showed up last on his ballot for four straight elections but never made it to his ballot again, or Miller’s, ever. Among players not in the HoME, version 1.0, McCormick received support twice as often as everyone else combined.
This time, we’re hoping for a different story. Let’s see what happened.
Miller Eric 1 Babe Ruth Babe Ruth 2 Rogers Hornsby Rogers Hornsby 3 Cristobal Torriente Bullet Rogan 4 Bullet Rogan Cristobal Torriente 5 Harry Heilmann Alejandro Oms 6 Joe McGinnity Louis Santop 7 Stan Coveleski Dobie Moore 8 Vic Willis Harry Heilmann 9 Rube Waddell George Sisler 10 Alejandro Oms Dazzy Vance 11 Paul Hines Elmer Flick 12 Mordecai Brown
Our Progress
Six newbies were elected in 1941, though we were able to agree on only one from the backlog. With the elections of Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby, Bullet Rogan, Cristobal Torriente, Harry Heilmann, and Alejandro Oms, we’ve found 47 of the 264 who will eventually become HoMErs, a scant three more than the 44 from the HoME 1.0.
Harry Heilmann Makin’ A Jump
You might be wondering how the Tiger right field great didn’t receive a vote from Miller in the 1936 election but now appears ahead of six players who did get Miller’s vote in that election. And you’d be right to wonder. Well folks, sometimes the answer is pretty simple. Miller just made a mistake. Yes, history will show that it took Heilmann two elections to gain entry into the HoME 2.0. So what.
Bullet Rogan
Bullet Rogan is the best two-way player not named Babe Ruth in baseball history. On the offensive side of the game, Rogan hit well enough for consideration as a legit HoME candidate in center field and right field (he played a lot in both). On the mound, he took it to another level. On the basis of his mound work solely, Rogan likely ranks behind only Satchel Paige and Smokey Joe Williams. But add to his pitching resume a right fielder’s bat, and, overall, he might well edge by Smokey Joe too. That puts Rogan into some rarefied air, alongside the likes of John Smoltz, Roy Halladay, and Clayton Kershaw, any of whom would rate as the anchor of most anyone’s pitching staff. Except maybe Bobby Cox’s. Offensively or defensively, you can’t pick wrong with Bullet Rogan.
Cristobal Torriente
This Cristobal Torriente guy, man, he could bring the lumber. Unlike most Cuban players, Torriente didn’t sign on with the various Cuban Stars teams that barnstormed the US each summer. He played for U.S. teams, including many years with Rube Foster’s squads. Torriente produced about as much value as Joe DiMaggio in a similarly long career, though he lacked DiMaggio’s grace afield, with numbers suggesting he played a subpar center field, to the tune of one to three runs a year. He might have eventually ended up in a corner in the majors, but regardless he could hit enough to play anywhere in the outfield.
Alejandro Oms
He’s not a flashy candidate but Alejandro Oms turned out a long career showcasing a variety of skills. A lock for fifty to sixty extra-base hits a year and a .300 average, Oms also had 200-homer power, about 12-15 a year, and walked a little more than ten percent of the time. Other players referred to Oms as el Caballero, the Gentleman, because of his decorous manner on and off the field, but surely baseballs and pitchers alike didn’t much care for all the line drives that shot from his bat.
1946 Election 2.0
When first we voted in 1946, Sherry Magee made it on his fifth ballot, while Charlie Bennett and Monte Ward got there on their tenth tries. Magee and Bennett don’t appear below because we elected them on their first and second tries, respectively. Ward doesn’t appear below because his case doesn’t look like it once did. With so many Negro League greats primarily shortstops, Ward has dropped to 32nd on both of our lists, averaging just a smidge over 90 CHEWS+/MAPES+ points.
Miller Eric 1 Lou Gehrig Lou Gehrig 2 Oscar Charleston Oscar Charleston 3 Jud Wilson Jud Wilson 4 Frankie Frisch Biz Mackey 5 Goose Goslin Frankie Frisch 6 Al Simmons Mickey Cochrane 7 Mickey Cochrane Turkey Stearnes 8 Turkey Stearnes John Beckwith 9 Vic Willis Al Simmons 10 Joe McGinnity Goose Goslin 11 Stan Coveleski Louis Santop 12 Wes Ferrell Wes Ferrell 13 Rube Waddell Dobie Moore 14 John Beckwith Dick Lundy 15 Paul Hines Wally Schang 16 Mordecai Brown George Sisler 17 Elmer Flick 18 Dazzy Vance 19 Vic Willis
Oscar Charleston
The Negro Leagues boasted a constellation of star center fielders, but none shone brighter than Oscar Charleston. Called “the Black Ty Cobb” and “the Black Babe Ruth” at different moments in his career, Charleston had all the tools, and he knew precisely how to use them. He ranks as either the top or the second most productive hitter among Negro Leagues players, and we translate his performance as averaging around 60 batting runs a year above average during his 1921–1927 peak. His 1924 season was one for the ages and translates to a Ruthian or Cobbian 11.6 WAR. Charleston ran like the wind and took no prisoners on base. He was renowned for playing a shallow center field and going back on deep flies like Tris Speaker. He rates among the top five men to ever play center field, at least until Mike Trout has another amazing year.
Jud Wilson
A compact lefty with big shoulders, Jud Wilson loved hitting as much as he hated umpires and pitchers. Hitting loved him back. The lefty tore line drives all over the park, gobbling up bases with peak 50-double ability, about 15 homers a year, and a batting average well above .300. Wilson played third base for much of his career. He corralled the ball rather than picking it, and a strong arm gave him a couple extra split seconds to make the plays. Later he switched to first base. At both corners, he rates as slightly above average despite an awkward body type that was all trunk and no legs. He also grades out, surprisingly, as a very slightly better than average baserunner. And you wouldn’t want to get spiked by Jud Wilson. Ultimately, Wilson is likely the best third baseman in baseball history until the arrival of Eddie Mathews.
Turkey Stearnes
Turkey Stearnes in a nutshell:
-
- Lefty hitter
- Played for about two decades
- Most of it in center field
- Where he was a solidly above average defender
- Had plus power (think 350+ homers, 550+ doubles)
- Hit around .300
- Came to play every day.
I’d sign on for that.
John Beckwith
You only need to know one thing about John Beckwith: His nickname was “Boom Boom” for good reason. The man had a temper, and got in trouble with the law and his teams frequently, but they called him “Boom Boom” because he hit with such authority. He didn’t walk much, didn’t run especially well, and had a hard time with defensive responsibilities at times, but the guy’s bat just didn’t stop. How does 40 doubles, ten triples, and 25 homers a year with a .300+ average grab ya? You can put up with a lot for that kind of production.
Our Progress
What an election! Eleven new players were elected to the Hall of Miller and Eric. We reached new heights with the nineteen players appearing on Eric’s ballot. Hell, aside from Eric’s 1926 submission eight years ago, there has been no ballot as large as Miller’s this time around. With eleven honorees, we also set a single-election record, topping our previous high by two. Ballot newcomers Lou Gehrig, Oscar Charleston, Jud Wilson, Frankie Frisch, Mickey Cochrane, Al Simmons, Goose Goslin, Turkey Stearns, John Beckwith, and Wes Ferrell join Vic Willis, getting in after six previous times on the ballot. That means we’re up to a robust 58, or about 22% of the 264 we’ll eventually elect, basically the same pace through ten elections that we saw last time.
Still Alive
Not surprisingly, our backlog has grown since last election. We’ve added the eleven players you see above, while losing only four from our backlog. Dizzy Dean and Bob Caruthers were hanging around for no good reason. Candy Jim Taylor was still on the list because we’re not going to lose a Negro Leaguer who’s close-ish until Eric says so. And then there’s the case of Eddie Cicotte. Eight years ago, we decided to make him ineligible for the HoME, not because he bet on baseball, but because he worked to help his team lose. Had that unforgivable offense had not happened, Cicotte would have been a HoMEr. But three things have changed since our first round of elections. Eric has adjusted the innings pitched of many players so he can view them on the same plane. Thus, there have been changes in his rankings. Obviously, we’ve added Negro Leaguers to the mix, so all lesser pitchers than Bullet Rogan, Smokey Joe Williams, and Satchel Paige have lost ground. And then there’s Miller’s rethinking of Cicotte. As he reconsidered the Cicotte ban, he decided that at a minimum he would have to eliminate his 1917 season, the best of his career, because that’s the season in which he cheated. The result of that recalculation means that we’ve both disposed of Cicotte without banning him. We probably won’t think about banning him or not moving forward.
Here’s what the current backlog looks like.
What’s Different?
We’re ten elections into the process, and we’re seeing small but significant differences emerging, spurred primarily because of inclusion of the Negro Leagues. Below, you’ll see the four players we elected the first time that we haven’t this time (with the year of their elections parenthetically), at least not yet. You’ll also see the names of the eight elected this time that hadn’t gotten in through the previous 1946 election. Finally, you see a separate list of Negro Leaguers who we’ve elected this time but were not previously eligible during these elections.
A week from now we get to the two elections of the 1950s.
HoME Rankings 2020, Right Field
Babe Ruth is baseball’s most titanic figure and, according to Miller, the best player in baseball history. Timeline or time machine if you must, but according to MAPES+, Ruth’s 11th best season is superior to any season of Mike Trout’s career. We both rank Sam Crawford as the 11th best player in right field. Well, Ruth had 15 years better than any Wahoo ever produced. The gap between Ruth and Hank Aaron, a guy who’s absolutely one of the game’s ten best position players ever is larger than the gap between the top two any other position by both CHEWS+ and MAPES+.
And on and on and on.
If Ruth were born in 1990, I’m not sure he would have been as great. Maybe though. If he played in an integrated league, he wouldn’t have stood out as much. If talent wasn’t so top heavy at the time, he wouldn’t have stood out as much either. Don’t care. Ruth’s the best.
Maybe.
As always, we’ll share past positions here. [First Base], [Second Base], [Third Base], [Shortstop], [Left Field], [Center Field]
Here are our rankings!
Anything jump out?
Maybe it’s not such a big deal, but I’m struck by Mel Ott passing Frank Robinson by each of our measures. Frank Robinson, now fourth, gained a teensy bit in the latest BBREF update, but Ott earned more and now looks like the third greatest right fielder ever.
Another thing that jumps out is Ichiro. He played his last game in 2019, the same year that CC Sabathia and Brian McCann played their last games. Let’s imagine the BBWAA elects just one player on Ichiro’s ballot. It’ll be him, though there’s no guarantee we rank him ahead of both McCann and Sabathia when the time comes. With the idea in mind that pitchers are a whole ‘nother can of fish, let’s look at McCann here. I’ll preview next week’s post by letting you know that Miller sees McCann at 100% of the way there, while Eric puts him at 95%. As far as Ichiro goes, Eric sees him at 100% of the way there, and Miller sees him at 95%. Since right field is our most populated position and catcher is our least, it’s possible we’re going to disappoint Ichiro fans in a few years.
What’s more, if 2020 is cancelled due to COVID-19, there will be additional retirements, which may further compromise Ichiro’s chances. Who knows what we’re going to see from Albert Pujols in 2021. And there’s a trio of catchers beyond McCann – Buster Posey, Russell Martin, and Yadier Molina – who should be hanging ‘em up soon too. With Sabathia and four catchers hitting our ballot the same time Ichiro does, I’m a bit worried about the potential backlash we may receive.
What active players are on their way?
Giancarlo Stanton could make a run if he ever gets healthy. Bryce Harper isn’t as far along, though he’ll still be only 28 when next season opens. And then there’s Mookie Betts, 43rd by MAPES+ and 44th by CHEWS+. He just needs to stay healthy. Of course, we’ve all heard that before. Andruw Jones, Vada Pinson, and Cesar Cedeno all totaled more WAR than Mookie through their age-27 seasons, which is what Mookie would be playing in 2020. It’s no sure thing.
Who are the best remaining candidates?
Eric sees the best three as Bobby Abreu, Bill Nicholson, and Tony Oliva. Miller thinks they’re Brian Giles, Sam Thompson, and Bobby Abreu. Those facts sort of suggest that Abreu would be our guy if we chose to add a right fielder. However, since right field is the position we’ve elected the most, since Ichiro is coming, and since Betts, maybe Harper, and maaaaaybe Stanton could get there too, Abreu fans shouldn’t hold their breath.
Any big changes this year?
Enos Slaughter took a big jump for Eric, rising from 23rd to 18th. Chuck Klein climbed four spots from 38th to 34th, the same as Tommy Holmes from 4oth to 36th. Rocky Colavito fell as many, from 35th to 39th.
Small changes for Miller are Reggie Smith and Bobby Abreu dropping two spots from 27th and 29th, respectively. Tommy Holmes jumped the same number from 38th to 36th. As Eric, Miller’s big climbers are Enos Slaughter and Sam Thompson, each up five spots, to 23rd and 28th, respectively.
How about the guys only listed by one of you?
- Eric has Tim Salmon 37th, and Miller puts him 41st.
- Eric has Giancarlo Stanton 38th, and Miller puts him 49th.
- Eric has Rocky Colavito 39th, and Miller puts him 42nd.
- Miller sees Joe Jackson 9th in right field, while Eric has him at the same rank in left.
- Miller puts Brian Giles in 27th place in right, while Eric has him 22nd in left.
- Miller has Johnny Callison in 40th place, and Eric puts him five places lower.
Come back next week for the backstops. Thanks!
Miller and Eric
The Best 125 Right Fielders Ever
Today we finish up the position players with our list of the top-125 right fielders ever. Remember, we’re quite confident through 75 or so players, pretty confident through 100, and admit we’re guessing a bit toward the bottom of the list.
Before we get into the list, there are two things I want to point out. First, perhaps you already know that we have not yet elected Vladimir Guerrero to the Hall of Miller and Eric. He’s in good position, above three HoME right fielders on my list and two on Eric’s. It’s just been a numbers game the last two years. Yes, Vlad is better than some guys in the HoME. However, we’re bound by the number of players in the Hall of Fame. We don’t and won’t add beyond the Hall. In 2017, the Hall elected three players. We decided we preferred Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, and Sam Rice to Vlad. While Rice is a smidge below Vlad on our right field lists, we thought his era needed a bit more representation than Vlad’s. Last year there were six players elected to the Hall, including Vlad, however he still couldn’t make the HoME cut. Rather, we went with Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Scott Rolen, Andruw Jones, Johan Santana, and Minnie Minoso. Based on Eric’s Negro League research, we decided Minoso was above the line. The others were easier calls. What about 2019? I’m not so hopeful. Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, and Todd Helton will all get in before Guerrero. Is Guerrero fourth? I’m not sure right now. And maybe it won’t matter. I’m not confident we’re going to get more than three players this year.
The second thing I want to mention about the lists is where we place Mookie Betts and Bryce Harper. I have the AL MVP #60, while he comes in at #68 on Eric’s list. As for Harper, he’s #86 for Eric and #90 for me. They were born only nine days apart, but Harper was a wunderkind who reached the majors two years before Mookie did. Thus, he’s a free agent now, looking to make $2.4 zillion, or something like that. What would the difference be if he and Mookie were on the market together? Since Mookie’s rookie year, Harper has played like and All-Star (5+ WAR) just once, and Mookie has done so four times. For those who have been around the HoME for a bit, you know where I’m going with this. Mookie is the better player. And I believe Mookie will be the better player moving forward. We’ll see how they move up the chart in the years to come.
A quick note about position differences: I put Joe Jackson, Brian Giles, and Richie Zisk in right; Eric puts them all in left. That’s it.
Take a look at our evaluation systems and our earlier lists in this series.
[CHEWS+], [MAPES+], [Catcher], [First Base], [Second Base], [Third Base], [Shortstop], [Left Field], [Center Field]
That’s it for the position players. After reviewing BBWAA ballots on Friday, we’ll be back on Monday with a long, long list of pitchers.
Miller
Happy Retirement, Adrian!
As I’m sure you know by now, the competition Chipper Jones has for best third baseman of this era has announced his retirement. So that got me to thinking, er, playing with BBREF’s awesome Play Index. One thing I found, which is pretty cool, is that Beltre put up the most WAR in the game over the past fifteen years. And there I went down the rabbit hole.
Below is a chart with all 15-year periods in the game’s history since the start of the National Association in 1871, along with the best position player of that period. You’ll see that Beltre is in very good company.
1871-1885 Cap Anson 1872-1886 Cap Anson 1873-1887 Cap Anson 1874-1888 Cap Anson 1875-1889 Cap Anson 1876-1890 Cap Anson 1877-1891 Cap Anson 1878-1892 Roger Connor 1879-1893 Roger Connor 1880-1894 Roger Connor 1881-1895 Roger Connor 1882-1896 Roger Connor 1883-1897 Roger Connor 1884-1898 Roger Connor 1885-1899 Roger Connor 1886-1900 Billy Hamilton 1887-1901 Billy Hamilton 1888-1902 Ed Delahanty 1889-1903 Ed Delahanty 1890-1904 Ed Delahanty 1891-1905 George Davis 1892-1906 George Davis 1893-1907 Honus Wagner 1894-1908 Honus Wagner 1895-1909 Honus Wagner 1896-1910 Honus Wagner 1897-1911 Honus Wagner 1898-1912 Honus Wagner 1899-1913 Honus Wagner 1900-1914 Honus Wagner 1901-1915 Honus Wagner 1902-1916 Honus Wagner 1903-1917 Honus Wagner 1904-1918 Ty Cobb 1905-1919 Ty Cobb 1906-1920 Ty Cobb 1907-1921 Ty Cobb 1908-1922 Ty Cobb 1909-1923 Ty Cobb 1910-1924 Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker 1911-1925 Tris Speaker 1912-1926 Tris Speaker 1913-1927 Tris Speaker and Babe Ruth 1914-1928 Babe Ruth 1915-1929 Babe Ruth 1916-1930 Babe Ruth 1917-1931 Babe Ruth 1918-1932 Babe Ruth 1919-1933 Babe Ruth 1920-1934 Babe Ruth 1921-1935 Babe Ruth 1922-1936 Babe Ruth 1923-1937 Babe Ruth 1924-1938 Lou Gehrig 1925-1939 Lou Gehrig 1926-1940 Lou Gehrig 1927-1941 Lou Gehrig 1928-1942 Mel Ott 1929-1943 Mel Ott 1930-1944 Mel Ott 1931-1945 Mel Ott 1932-1946 Mel Ott 1933-1947 Mel Ott 1934-1948 Mel Ott 1935-1949 Ted Williams 1936-1950 Ted Williams 1937-1951 Ted Williams 1938-1952 Ted Williams 1939-1953 Stan Musial 1940-1954 Stan Musial 1941-1955 Stan Musial 1942-1956 Stan Musial 1943-1957 Stan Musial 1944-1958 Stan Musial 1945-1959 Stan Musial 1946-1960 Stan Musial 1947-1961 Stan Musial 1948-1962 Mickey Mantle 1949-1963 Willie Mays 1950-1964 Willie Mays 1951-1965 Willie Mays 1952-1966 Willie Mays 1953-1967 Willie Mays 1954-1968 Willie Mays 1955-1969 Willie Mays 1956-1970 Willie Mays 1957-1971 Willie Mays 1958-1972 Willie Mays 1959-1973 Hank Aaron 1960-1974 Hank Aaron 1961-1975 Hank Aaron 1962-1976 Hank Aaron 1963-1977 Carl Yastrzemski 1964-1978 Joe Morgan 1965-1979 Joe Morgan 1966-1980 Joe Morgan 1967-1981 Joe Morgan 1968-1982 Joe Morgan 1969-1983 Joe Morgan 1970-1984 Mike Schmidt 1971-1985 Mike Schmidt 1972-1986 Mike Schmidt 1973-1987 Mike Schmidt 1974-1988 Mike Schmidt 1975-1989 Mike Schmidt 1976-1990 Mike Schmidt 1977-1991 Rickey Henderson 1978-1992 Rickey Henderson 1979-1993 Rickey Henderson 1980-1994 Rickey Henderson 1981-1995 Rickey Henderson 1982-1996 Cal Ripken 1983-1997 Barry Bonds 1984-1998 Barry Bonds 1985-1999 Barry Bonds 1986-2000 Barry Bonds 1987-2001 Barry Bonds 1988-2002 Barry Bonds 1989-2003 Barry Bonds 1990-2004 Barry Bonds 1991-2005 Barry Bonds 1992-2006 Barry Bonds 1993-2007 Barry Bonds 1994-2008 Barry Bonds 1995-2009 Alex Rodriguez 1996-2010 Alex Rodriguez 1997-2011 Alex Rodriguez 1998-2012 Alex Rodriguez 1999-2013 Alex Rodriguez 2000-2014 Albert Pujols 2001-2015 Albert Pujols 2002-2016 Albert Pujols 2003-2017 Albert Pujols 2004-2018 Adrian Beltre
Thanks for everything, Adrian.
And happy Thanksgiving to all of you.
Miller
Your Favorite Articles from Our First Five Years
For as long as we’ve known each other, Eric and I have been bewildered and beleaguered regarding the composition of and the voting for the Baseball Hall of Fame. For a while, we simply complained to each other in emails. We considered writing a book long before we started this blog. However, at that time, we were even further away from being recognized authorities than we are today. Plus, I don’t think anyone reads books any more. Then just over five years ago, we decided to start the Hall of Miller and Eric, an alternative to the Hall of Fame with the “right” players in it. At first, we were just two voices with our own semi-private teensy spot on the interwebs.
And to a large degree, we still are.
However, to us, things have gotten very exciting around the HoME for the last year plus. What I mean is more and more of you are showing an interest in our work. And we thank you!
A couple of years ago, right after the HoME turned three years old, Eric posted an article about your favorite posts. So today, a bit after we turned five, I’m going to update that piece, mostly to brag, and secondarily to direct you to the posts you may have missed that people seem to like.
You’re Reading!
The average number of hits at the Hall of Miller and Eric has generally been on an uptick. But the last two years have been really special. And the last ten months have been our best ten ever. This month, we’re poised to top December of 2017, when we posted nearly every day during the BBWAA election season, as our best month in HoME history.
Average per day:
- 2013: 7.82
- 2014: 11.88
- 2015: 11.69
- 2016: 14.96
- 2017: 49.20
- 2018: 91.06 (through June 27, 178 days)
You’re Everywhere!
At this point, we’ve had visitors to the HoME from 85 countries including Tunisia, Costa Rica, Macau, Haiti, Bangladesh, and Poland. I don’t know how folks in Gibraltar, Uzbekistan, Burundi, and Switzerland have found us. But they have. And we thank them (you!).
Here’s What You’re Reading
While the point of this post is partially to brag a little bit, there’s also tremendous interest in pointing out to some of the things you might have missed. I admit that I went overboard with this list, but once I got going, the next post always seemed to be one that I wanted to remind you about.
#1 The Speed of Legend: The myths and some truths about Cool Papa Bell (Eric, 438): Published in January of 2017, this excellent post had its most viewers the next February. And I suspect its popularity stems, at least in part, from the link on Gary Ashwill’s Agate Type: Reconstructing Negro League & Latin American Baseball History site. Thanks Gary!
#2 Baseball’s Most Underrated Player Ever? (Miller, 323): Posted in November of 2015, this Rick Reuschel post hit its peak in popularity two years later. Actually, it’s still peaking. I’m proud of this post, mainly because I don’t think enough people are talking about Reuschel and making a case for his inclusion in Cooperstown. Incidentally, #9 Fixing the Hall, Add Rick Reuschel (Miller, 189) also ranks in the top ten, and #41 Rick Reuschel and the Best Pitchers of the 1970s (Miller, 90) is my most popular post in the Pitcher of the Decade series, I think just because Reuschel’s name is in the title.
#3 1926 New Candidates (Eric, 294): With all due respect to my colleague, this post from August of 2013 shouldn’t have this type of attention; it’s just a list of guys we reviewed for the 1926 election. No other “New Candidates” post is even in our top-100 most popular, and only two others are in our top-250. I suspect it gets attention because of the “Black Sox” tag, which is cool in and of itself. People love reading about Joe Jackson, even if it’s just his name. The best month for this post was September of 2013, but that’s just one of eight months when the post has had double digit views. #26 Dirty Black Sox laundry—some stains are stubborn (Eric, 120), a post from 2013, has also done some good numbers. Yep, you care about the Black Sox.
#4 Who Is Right About Whitey Ford? (Eric, 274): He’s a Yankee, he’s beloved, and he’s overrated. Those things can make a post popular. Plus, it’s one of my personal favorites of Eric’s. This post from January of 2015 hit its peak in popularity in November of 2016. Overall, each year has better than the one before it for this popular post.
#5 Carl Yastrzemski, Underrated (Miller, 239): Posted in July of 2014, the post’s most popular month, Yaz received increasing attention each year after that. I think it likely has a lot to do with the “Underrated” part of the post’s title.
#6 What Did Getting Fat Cost Tony Gwynn? (Eric, 238): I really like how Eric’s posts get more popular as time goes on. Posted in April of 2015, this post received only nine hits that year. That increased to 85 in 2016 and 87 last year, the best month being July of 2016. It’s a really thoughtful post and deserves to be this popular.
#7 Major League Equivalencies for Negro Leagues Hitters (Eric, 215): I love, love, love the HoME. It’s kinda one of the coolest things I’ve ever done. But let’s be clear – the coolest thing that’s ever come out of the HoME has been Eric’s series on the Negro Leagues. Don’t believe me that this is the best work we’ve done? Of out 75 most popular posts, Eric has written 27 of them on the Negro Leagues. Here they are: #7 Negro Leagues: Measuring the Quality of Competition (Eric, 211), #10 Who are the top Negro League candidates? (Eric, 183), #11 Evaluating Negro Leagues Catchers (Eric, 177), #12 Negro Leagues Legends Wrap Up (Eric, 176), #13 Evaluating Negro Leagues Pitchers, Part I: Brown, Cooper, Day, Dihigo (Eric, 168), #14 Thinking About the Negro Leagues: 5 Questions (Eric, 163), #15 Evaluating Negro Leagues Center Fielders, Part 1 (Eric, 163), #18 Evaluating Negro Leagues First Basemen and Second Basemen (Eric, 158), #19 Evaluating Negro Leagues Shortstops Part 1 (Eric, 155), #20 Evaluating Negro Leagues Pitchers, Part II: Foster, Foster, Mendéz, and Paige (Eric, 150), #21 Evaluating Negro Leagues Shortstops, Part Two (Eric, 140), #22 Evaluating Negro Leagues Pitcher, Part III: Rogan, Smith, and Williams (Eric, 133), #23 Evaluating Negro Leagues Third Basemen (Eric 126), #24 Major League Equivalencies for Negro Leagues Pitchers (Eric, 123), #25 Evaluating Negro Leagues Centerfielders, Part 2 (Eric, 121), #31 Evaluating More Negro Leagues Catchers (Eric, 111), #32 Evaluating Negro Leagues Corner Outfielders (Eric, 109), #41 Evaluating More Negro Leagues Pitchers, Part 1 (Eric, 90), #41 Evaluating More Negro Leagues First Basemen, Part 1 (Eric, 90), #46 Evaluating More Negro Leagues Pitchers, Part 2 (Eric, 85), #51 Evaluating More Negro Leagues Pitchers, Part 6 (Eric, 82), #56 What makes the Negro Leagues hard to analyze (Eric, 78), #60 Evaluating More Negro Leagues Second Basemen, Part II (Eric, 71), #67 Evaluating More Negro Leagues Second Basemen (Eric, 64), #71 Evaluating More Negro Leagues Third Basemen (Eric, 62), #71 Evaluating More Negro Leagues Pitchers, Part 3 (Eric, 62). Wow, that’s a lot!
#16 Giving 1930s and 1940s players back their missing value mojo (Eric, 161): Unlike most of our top posts, this one, where Eric examined baserunning value possibly missed by BBREF, was popular right away and then slipped some. It’s the research we’ve used to withhold a vote from Ernie Lombardi, so it’s pretty valuable to the HoME.
#16 Who Was the Best Pitcher of the 1960s? (Eric, 161): I don’t know what made Eric write this post, but if it has to do with Sandy Koufax, it’s going to be popular. Written in April of 2014, two of its best three months have been the last two, during my Best Pitcher of the Decade series.
#27 All-Time HoME Leaders, First Base – 21-40: (Miller and Eric, 118): Of all posts in this series, how is this the most popular one to date? Other top-75 posts in the series include #29 All-Time Home Leaders, Third Base – 1-20 (Miller and Eric, 115), #34 All-Time HoME Leaders, Pitcher – 1-20 (Miller and Eric, 104), #35 All-Time Home Leaders, First Base – 1-20 (Miller and Eric, 102), #37 All-Time Home Leaders, Second Base – 1-20 (Miller and Eric, 101), #40 All-Time Home Leaders, Shortstop – 1-20 (Miller and Eric, 91), #50 All-Time HoME Leaders, Right Field – 1-20, (Miller and Eric, 83), #61 All-Time Home Leaders, Catcher – 21-40 (Miller and Eric, 66), and #73 All-Time Home Leaders, Shortstop – 21-40 (Miller and Eric, 61).
#28 Dennis Eckersley, Starter or Reliever? (Miller, 116): I’m not sure why this is a popular post. Like many, it has increased in popularity since its March 2015 release. Its most popular month was August of 2017. Oh, by the way, Eck was a starter.
#30 Eric’s 25 Most Important People in Baseball History (Eric, 112): This is a post that was inspired by Graham Womack’s thought project in 2014. In Graham’s project, 262 people voted, and they selected Babe Ruth followed by Jackie Robinson and Branch Rickey. Eric chose Branch Rickey, Babe Ruth, and Jackie Robinson, in that order. My accompanying post, #67 Miller’s 25 Most Important People in Baseball History, (Miller, 64) hasn’t been quite as popular. I chose Ruth first and Rickey second. Henry Chadwick was third for me, while Jackie was fifth.
#33 1936 HoME Election Results (Miller, 107): This was a cool election. Eight guys got in, including Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, and Tris Speaker. I guess it’s as popular as it is because the Hall’s first election was in ’36. Also among the top-75 ever is #51 1999 HoME Election Results (Miller, 82), which saw four players elected including George Brett and Nolan Ryan.
#35 How the Hall (and everyone else) Failed, Willie Stargell (Miller, 103): This has been my most successful series. I suspect Stargell has been its most popular examination because he’s kind of a no-brainer for most people. #43 How the Hall Failed, Jim Rice (Miller, 90), #48 How the Hall Failed, Catfish Hunter (Miller, 85), #58 How the Hall Failed, Lou Brock (Miller, 75), #59 How the Hall Failed – Ray Schalk (Miller, 72), and #62 How the Hall Failed – Tommy McCarthy (Miller, 67) are the other top-75 posts.
#38 Joe Carter, Baseball’s Most Overrated Player Ever? (Miller, 99): This post from last September, in which I try to explain how Joe Carter became so over-appreciated, has gotten a decent amount of attention each month. The guy had three seasons in which he totaled 100+ RBI and negative WAR. Ugh!
#39 Hidden Superstars of the 1910s and 1920s? (Eric, 94): This 2017 post was hot originally but hasn’t gotten much attention lately. It’s a really interesting post about how a lack of data on baserunning, double play avoidance, and outfield throwing may obscure or dampen the greatness of a few players from those decades.
#42 The Hall of Consensus (Eric, 90): I’ve come to realize that my favorite posts aren’t always yours. That’s okay. This 2016 creation examined where the Hall of Fame, Hall of Merit, and Hall of Stats overlapped (or not) with the HoME and each other. I did the same thing to less fanfare a year before with #67 Comparing the Halls (Miller, 64).
#46 Examining the Pud Galvin Arguments (Miller, 88): Back before Eric caved and we elected Pud Galvin, I worked through his case quite a bit through posts. This 2014 post tried to look at both sides of his electoral case. The post was initially pretty popular, less so once we elected Galvin.
#47 How I Rank Players, Introducing MAPES+ (Miller, 87): In association with our top-40 players series, I shared how I rank players. Eric did the same last year by #65 Introducing CHEWS+ (Eric, 66).
#51 The HoME’s Inner Circle (Miller, 82): The term “Inner Circle” has always bothered me because it’s not something that’s ever really been defined. In this January post, I tried to remedy that problem.
#54 Is Johan Santana the Contemporary Sandy Koufax? (Eric, 79): In this post, Eric concludes that he is. I snarkily say he’s not since Sandy is often considered the best pitcher ever, while Johan fell off the Hall ballot after just one year. If you’re a fan of any of Koufax, Santana, or the Hall, you need to read this 2016 post.
#55 A Q & A with Adam Darowski of the Hall of Stats (Miller, 79): Last August we started interviewing some important folks in our field. To date, the chat with Adam was the most popular. #61 A Q&A with Ryan Thibodaux of the BBHoF Tracker (Miller, 67) and #73 Q&A with Jay Jaffe, author of the Cooperstown Casebook (Eric, 61) are also among the 75 most read posts.
#57 What happened to Mickey Mantle’s doubles?: (Eric, 76): This is a really cool, under-viewed post about, well, Mantle’s doubles. What else? Check it out.
#61 Getting Julio Franco Into Cooperstown (Miller, 67): I’m fascinated by guys who but for a few odd twists could have easily have found themselves in the Hall. Julio Franco is one such guy.
#66 In Support of Sal Bando (Miller, 65): Like the Franco post, this 2015 article has chugged along with a couple of clicks per month for the last three plus years. In it, I looked at Bando and every other position player who led the game in WAR over a five-year span. To be fair, this post was far more fun to research than just to read.
#67 The HoME 100: #10–1 (Miller and Eric, 64): After ESPN bungled things, we set them straight in a ten-part series culminating with this post.
#73 Grading the BBWAA Ballots (Miller, 61): This is the post that kicked off my ballot grading in 2017. The series was unrelenting. We were producing content every day during the Hall voting, and I graded each one that Ryan Thibodaux posted. It was worth it; you guys looked at these posts over 1,200 times.
Since I put this list together at the end of May, three pretty interesting posts fell out of the top-75.
The Worst Regulars Ever (Miller, 60): This 2017 post is pretty much exactly what you think it is. I kinda think it should have received more attention. Check it out.
The Best Relief Pitchers Ever (Miller, 59): Another post that’s exactly what the title indicates.
Why we chose Sam Rice instead of Vlad Guerrero (Eric, 58): And a third.
We thank you for all of the support and input over the last five years. Let us know in the comments what you think we should write about, posts you’ve enjoyed, or different directions you think we should explore. If you do those things, we’ll do a better job providing the content you want.
Thanks for reading!
Miller
All-Time HoME Leaders, Right Field – 1-20
Mr. October. It’s one of baseball’s most recognizable nicknames. Thinking ahead to this post, I was considering Reggie Jackson as one of the players MAPES+ might underrate because it doesn’t take post-season performance into account. So then I looked at Reggie’s playoff statistics. He slashed .278/.358/.527 in October compared to .262/.356/.490 in the regular season. Better? Sure. Against stiffer competition? Almost certainly. But there’s not a marked difference, at least not one that’s suggested by the nickname. If you want to call someone Mr. October, someone like Lou Brock, Paul Molitor, Curt Schilling or Bob Gibson (to name four off the top of my head), go for it. But Reggie? I don’t know.
Yes, he won two World Series MVP Awards, and I think he deserved it in 1978 too. And not we’re on to something. In 116 trips to the plate over five World Series, he slashed .357/.457/.755. In my mind “October” is equal to the playoffs. However, if we view “October” as the World Series, which is justifiable, I suppose, Reggie earned that nickname. Now about MAPES+…
Actually, you can read about MAPES, CHEWS, and all posts in this series with the links below.
[MAPES+], [CHEWS+], [1B, 1-20], [1B, 21-40], [2B, 1-20], [2B, 21-40], [3B, 1-20], [3B, 21-40], [SS, 1-20], [SS, 21-40], [C, 1-20], [C, 21-40], [LF, 1-20], [LF, 21-40], [CF, 1-20], [CF, 21-40]
Right Field – 1-20
Where do we project the active player(s) to finish in our rankings?
Ichiro Suzuki
Part of the fun of Ichiro is that he’s kind of like a thought experiment made real: What if we took a star player from roughly 1901–1930 and plopped him into the majors? Now we know! It’s Ichiro! But that’s precisely what’s happened. His game is predicated on a few things:
- Putting the ball in play
- Speed from home to first
- Excellent baserunning
- Excellent fielding
- Cutting down baserunners who take foolish chances.
In the deadball era, grounds keeping wasn’t quite as meticulous as today. Comiskey Park was famously built atop a landfill and old trash popped up through the grass sometimes. The amazing drainage technology that today’s fields have didn’t exist. Freddie Lindstrom became a World Series goat when a ball hit a pebble and bounced over his head. That combined with primitive glove technology increased the reward for simply putting the ball on the ground between the lines and dashing like mad to first base.
Ichiro is something like Harry Hooper combined with George Sisler. Which is basically what Sam Rice was. I wonder whether that kind of player would have been more or less effective in the 1970s and 1980s. Why? Astroturf. Infielders could play back to pick up grounders that might get through at normal depth, but even well-placed grounders would reach fielders faster, reducing Ichiro’s speed advantage. Turf did give speed merchants an advantage on the bases, but the players who took best advantage of turf did so by hitting balls into the gaps and running like crazy. Ichiro’s game is different than that of George Brett, Tim Raines, or Vince Coleman. Turf might also reduce the advantage accrued with Ichiro’s arm because the ball would get to him quicker on singles, reducing the likelihood of his being tested, and extra-base hits would get by him more quickly. Hard tellin’ not knowin’ as they say up here in Maine.—Eric
I projected Ichiro to retire after the 2014 season. Seriously. Over the seven years before this one, he was worth a total of 5.2 WAR. That’s not a guy who you want on your club unless you want to sell tickets or jerseys. Oh, wait, I’ve figured it out. I’m sure there’s more. I bet Ichiro is a good guy, and I suspect his English is better around teammates than reporters, which is just fine by me. As far as where he ends up, that depends on whether or not he decides to play again. He’s just done for the year, not retired. Given an infinite number of chances, he’d play his way out of the HoME. Since I think he’s seen his last game, we will only have to factor in the-0.5 WAR he accrued in 15 games this year. That drops him behind Bobby Bonds for me, and into a virtual tie with Gary Sheffield. We’ll have to see how BBREF rounding works out.—Miller
Where do our rankings diverge the most from the conventional wisdom?
I think I have Winfield and Vlad lower than mainstream folks would. They’re not even on this list. The real divergence may be ranking Clemente third rather than fifth, not that the difference between him, Ott, and Robinson is meaningful at all. The reason for my ranking is pretty clear; it’s Clemente’s consecutive peak. If I removed that factor, Eric and I would have the same top-6. This seems as good a place as any to reiterate why I like the consecutive peak factor in my formula. First, it’s how JAWS began. Though Jaffe did come up with a better conclusion, I don’t think he was completely wrong to start. There is something, not nothing to be said for consecutive greatness. A team really knows what it has. Also, it’s only 11% of my formula, which is to say Clemente, Ott, and Robinson are very close anyway. Sure, I have Clemente third. If you have him fifth, I certainly won’t argue.—Miller
Larry Walker and Harry Hooper. We’ve got Walker among the top dozen right fielders, and he’s having trouble drumming up enough Hall support to make it before his eligibility expires. Lots of people think the Hall made a mistake by electing Harry Hooper. We strongly disagree.—Eric
Where do we disagree with one another the most?
Probably Willie Keeler. Throughout this process, Miller has had Keeler ranked ahead of me. I don’t exactly know why, but over the several iterations of each of our sifting tools, Wee Willie has always managed to look worse in my eyes.—Eric
Is it Clemente? No, I wouldn’t really make an argument that he’s exactly the third best right fielder ever. I’m nearly certain he’s between third and fifth, or maybe sixth. Not exactly third. It’s not like with Aaron. I’m almost certain Aaron is exactly the second best right fielder ever. There aren’t really any major discrepancies here. Even with Keeler. We both see him as 2% above the in/out line for the position.—Miller
Are there any players who MAPES+/CHEWS+ might overrate or underrate?
So let’s answer that question from the top of the post. Might MAPES+ underrate Reggie? I don’t think so. I call him the eighth best ever at the position. If you want to take him over Waner, I won’t put up a stink.—Miller
Well, neither of our systems take into account the verifiable, proven fact that Paul Waner shares my birthday. That’s a thing, man! But let me now posit a weird idea. Is it possible that Babe Ruth, the player, can be seen as overrated? No statistical system can capture the immensity of Babe Ruth’s contribution to baseball, of course, and we don’t talk about off-the-field stuff here very often. Still, we both had him among our top-three most influential persons in baseball history. But the thing about Babe Ruth is that he was so much better than everyone else. If you run standard deviations on any kind of runs-creation stats in his time, especially the early 1920s, he pulls everything out of whack. You have to seriously consider removing him from the test because by himself he raises the bar so high. But that begets the interesting question of whether Ruth was that good or did the league fail to catch on to his innovation? Some of both, surely, but that latter idea always makes me wonder whether Ruth is actually overrated from a certain, very narrow, point of view. The innovation is the source of his value, so in the most literal sense, it’s a non-question. And yet, it digs at me a little because it’s not entirely a question of talent and performance. There’s this little bit of friction for me about the long window of time before which the rest of MLB got its power together, and the massive advantage Ruth accrued from it. But whatever, he’s the Babe after all!—Eric
***
We round out the offense next week with the second half of right field.
The HoME’s Inner Circle
Not too long ago I read a tweet calling Jim Palmer an inner circle Hall of Famer. I immediately recoiled. Then I did what any stats guy or gal would do. I got out my spreadsheet.
What I found is Palmer’s name next to the number 31 among hurlers. When I last checked with Eric, he had Palmer 35th. And by JAWS, he’s 37th. I was satisfied; I felt my initial reaction was pretty much justified. But then I thought some more and realized that if I’m going to take pride in what I thought was a correct reaction, I’d better have an answer to who belongs in the inner circle.
So let’s think about the HoME. As of today, we’ve inducted 220 players. How many of those players do we think should be in the inner circle? Through the magic of BBREF, I know that there have been approximately 19,100 players in major league history. That means one out of 86 or 87 players ever is in the HoME. If we took the same percentage as the inner circle, we’d be looking at three guys, maybe Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, and Walter Johnson. Maybe. But three guys don’t form a good circle.
Let’s reconsider. If, for example, we consider only hitters who had extensive careers, perhaps we put the mark at 5,000 plate appearances. Then we may have something. There are just shy of 1,000 hitters at that level, and there are about 160 hitters in the HoME. So about 16% of all players with what I’m calling extensive careers are in the HoME. And if we take 16% of the players in the HoME, we have 35 players in the HoME’s inner circle. That would be 9-10 pitchers and 25-26 hitters. And that seems reasonable enough.
So by my fictional and unofficial standard, here’s the inner circle of the Hall of Miller and Eric, or at least a reasonable facsimile thereof.
C: Johnny Bench
1B: Stan Musial, Lou Gehrig, Cap Anson, Jimmie Foxx, Roger Connor
2B: Rogers Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Nap Lajoie, Joe Morgan
3B: Mike Schmidt, Eddie Mathews
SS: Honus Wagner
LF: Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Rickey Henderson
CF: Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Mickey Mantle
RF: Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Mel Ott, Frank Robinson, Roberto Clemente
P: Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Roger Clemens, Pete Alexander, Kid Nichols, Tom Seaver, Christy Mathewson, Lefty Grove, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson
Issues:
- Coming up soon will be Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols, probably in place of Roger Connor and Joe Morgan.
- I’m not so comfortable that there’s only one catcher, and I’m not at all confident that he’s the best ever. I really like Buck Ewing and Gary Carter. Maybe I should have one of them over Connor. But what would have happened when A-Rod came up? And Pujols?
- What happens when Mariano is eligible? It’s possible I could add him over Gibson if Gibson made the list. Or could I? Even though I’m a shill for Mo and always will be, I can’t take him over Johnson.
- I considered both Jack Glasscock and Bill Dahlen. In the end, I decided that guys not even in the Hall couldn’t be part of the HoME’s inner circle. Neither is a slam dunk, and A-Rod will be SS #2 in a few years anyway.
- Oh, and Jim Palmer isn’t close to any reasonable inner circle.
Do you think my inner circle is too large? Too small? Missing someone? Please let me know in the comments.
Miller
Mount Rushmore, New York Yankees
It’s been a while since our last Rushmore post. Welcome back! As a Celtic fan, I like to think of the Yankees as the Celtics of MLB. As a fan of accuracy, however, the Yankees are just the Yankees, without a peer in the battle for best big-4 franchise of all time. With 27 World Series wins, they have seven more than the next two teams combined. They’ve played 20 fewer years than the Phillies, yet they have about 500 more wins. The have the best winning percentage ever, topping the Giants .569 to .537 (at the time of this writing). They’re so good that the entire format of this series is going to change because of them. What an incredible franchise with remarkable stability.
Yankee Mount Rushmore, #1
Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Derek Jeter
Yankee Mount Rushmore, #2
Mariano Rivera, Whitey Ford, Bill Dickey, Bernie Williams
Yankee Mount Rushmore, #3
Ron Guidry, Thurman Munson, Mel Stottlemyre, Jorge Posada
Two Others
Babe Ruth, Earle Combs
My Yankee Rushmore
Babe Ruth: Since I have a passion for the Red Sox, I also have a sort of passion for the Yankees, though not in a good way. Also, I can’t believe I felt the need to link to Ruth’s BBREF page. But I looked at it, and I learned something new. One of his nicknames was Jidge. Every day you should go to BBREF and learn something new.
Lou Gehrig: Even Red Sox fans love him.
Mariano Rivera: I met him years ago. He was super nice to me, and I was about 80% fanboy. Oh, and he’s the best relief pitcher ever.
Thurman Munson: This is the way I ask for forgiveness. One of the great sports rivalries when I was a kid was Fisk/Munson. As a Red Sox fan, you know my answer. And that is the right answer in terms of career value. Ranking the two, even including peak, it’s still Fisk. But Munson had an extended 8-year peak where he averaged 5.0 WAR per year. The best Fisk can do over such a period is 4.4 WAR. Over seven years, it’s very close, but Munson still wins. My real apology is to Munson and fans regarding his Hall case. As a not-yet-formed researcher, I found Munson’s case to be clearly lacking. Then I added some advanced statistical knowledge to my base, and more importantly added context and comparison to other catchers. Munson belongs.
On their way next week will be the Philadelphia Phillies.
Miller
the Hall of Miller and Eric 