the Hall of Miller and Eric
Bobby Bonds
All-Time HoME Leaders, Right Field – 1-20
Mr. October. It’s one of baseball’s most recognizable nicknames. Thinking ahead to this post, I was considering Reggie Jackson as one of the players MAPES+ might underrate because it doesn’t take post-season performance into account. So then I looked at Reggie’s playoff statistics. He slashed .278/.358/.527 in October compared to .262/.356/.490 in the regular season. Better? Sure. Against stiffer competition? Almost certainly. But there’s not a marked difference, at least not one that’s suggested by the nickname. If you want to call someone Mr. October, someone like Lou Brock, Paul Molitor, Curt Schilling or Bob Gibson (to name four off the top of my head), go for it. But Reggie? I don’t know.
Yes, he won two World Series MVP Awards, and I think he deserved it in 1978 too. And not we’re on to something. In 116 trips to the plate over five World Series, he slashed .357/.457/.755. In my mind “October” is equal to the playoffs. However, if we view “October” as the World Series, which is justifiable, I suppose, Reggie earned that nickname. Now about MAPES+…
Actually, you can read about MAPES, CHEWS, and all posts in this series with the links below.
[MAPES+], [CHEWS+], [1B, 1-20], [1B, 21-40], [2B, 1-20], [2B, 21-40], [3B, 1-20], [3B, 21-40], [SS, 1-20], [SS, 21-40], [C, 1-20], [C, 21-40], [LF, 1-20], [LF, 21-40], [CF, 1-20], [CF, 21-40]
Right Field – 1-20
Where do we project the active player(s) to finish in our rankings?
Ichiro Suzuki
Part of the fun of Ichiro is that he’s kind of like a thought experiment made real: What if we took a star player from roughly 1901–1930 and plopped him into the majors? Now we know! It’s Ichiro! But that’s precisely what’s happened. His game is predicated on a few things:
- Putting the ball in play
- Speed from home to first
- Excellent baserunning
- Excellent fielding
- Cutting down baserunners who take foolish chances.
In the deadball era, grounds keeping wasn’t quite as meticulous as today. Comiskey Park was famously built atop a landfill and old trash popped up through the grass sometimes. The amazing drainage technology that today’s fields have didn’t exist. Freddie Lindstrom became a World Series goat when a ball hit a pebble and bounced over his head. That combined with primitive glove technology increased the reward for simply putting the ball on the ground between the lines and dashing like mad to first base.
Ichiro is something like Harry Hooper combined with George Sisler. Which is basically what Sam Rice was. I wonder whether that kind of player would have been more or less effective in the 1970s and 1980s. Why? Astroturf. Infielders could play back to pick up grounders that might get through at normal depth, but even well-placed grounders would reach fielders faster, reducing Ichiro’s speed advantage. Turf did give speed merchants an advantage on the bases, but the players who took best advantage of turf did so by hitting balls into the gaps and running like crazy. Ichiro’s game is different than that of George Brett, Tim Raines, or Vince Coleman. Turf might also reduce the advantage accrued with Ichiro’s arm because the ball would get to him quicker on singles, reducing the likelihood of his being tested, and extra-base hits would get by him more quickly. Hard tellin’ not knowin’ as they say up here in Maine.—Eric
I projected Ichiro to retire after the 2014 season. Seriously. Over the seven years before this one, he was worth a total of 5.2 WAR. That’s not a guy who you want on your club unless you want to sell tickets or jerseys. Oh, wait, I’ve figured it out. I’m sure there’s more. I bet Ichiro is a good guy, and I suspect his English is better around teammates than reporters, which is just fine by me. As far as where he ends up, that depends on whether or not he decides to play again. He’s just done for the year, not retired. Given an infinite number of chances, he’d play his way out of the HoME. Since I think he’s seen his last game, we will only have to factor in the-0.5 WAR he accrued in 15 games this year. That drops him behind Bobby Bonds for me, and into a virtual tie with Gary Sheffield. We’ll have to see how BBREF rounding works out.—Miller
Where do our rankings diverge the most from the conventional wisdom?
I think I have Winfield and Vlad lower than mainstream folks would. They’re not even on this list. The real divergence may be ranking Clemente third rather than fifth, not that the difference between him, Ott, and Robinson is meaningful at all. The reason for my ranking is pretty clear; it’s Clemente’s consecutive peak. If I removed that factor, Eric and I would have the same top-6. This seems as good a place as any to reiterate why I like the consecutive peak factor in my formula. First, it’s how JAWS began. Though Jaffe did come up with a better conclusion, I don’t think he was completely wrong to start. There is something, not nothing to be said for consecutive greatness. A team really knows what it has. Also, it’s only 11% of my formula, which is to say Clemente, Ott, and Robinson are very close anyway. Sure, I have Clemente third. If you have him fifth, I certainly won’t argue.—Miller
Larry Walker and Harry Hooper. We’ve got Walker among the top dozen right fielders, and he’s having trouble drumming up enough Hall support to make it before his eligibility expires. Lots of people think the Hall made a mistake by electing Harry Hooper. We strongly disagree.—Eric
Where do we disagree with one another the most?
Probably Willie Keeler. Throughout this process, Miller has had Keeler ranked ahead of me. I don’t exactly know why, but over the several iterations of each of our sifting tools, Wee Willie has always managed to look worse in my eyes.—Eric
Is it Clemente? No, I wouldn’t really make an argument that he’s exactly the third best right fielder ever. I’m nearly certain he’s between third and fifth, or maybe sixth. Not exactly third. It’s not like with Aaron. I’m almost certain Aaron is exactly the second best right fielder ever. There aren’t really any major discrepancies here. Even with Keeler. We both see him as 2% above the in/out line for the position.—Miller
Are there any players who MAPES+/CHEWS+ might overrate or underrate?
So let’s answer that question from the top of the post. Might MAPES+ underrate Reggie? I don’t think so. I call him the eighth best ever at the position. If you want to take him over Waner, I won’t put up a stink.—Miller
Well, neither of our systems take into account the verifiable, proven fact that Paul Waner shares my birthday. That’s a thing, man! But let me now posit a weird idea. Is it possible that Babe Ruth, the player, can be seen as overrated? No statistical system can capture the immensity of Babe Ruth’s contribution to baseball, of course, and we don’t talk about off-the-field stuff here very often. Still, we both had him among our top-three most influential persons in baseball history. But the thing about Babe Ruth is that he was so much better than everyone else. If you run standard deviations on any kind of runs-creation stats in his time, especially the early 1920s, he pulls everything out of whack. You have to seriously consider removing him from the test because by himself he raises the bar so high. But that begets the interesting question of whether Ruth was that good or did the league fail to catch on to his innovation? Some of both, surely, but that latter idea always makes me wonder whether Ruth is actually overrated from a certain, very narrow, point of view. The innovation is the source of his value, so in the most literal sense, it’s a non-question. And yet, it digs at me a little because it’s not entirely a question of talent and performance. There’s this little bit of friction for me about the long window of time before which the rest of MLB got its power together, and the massive advantage Ruth accrued from it. But whatever, he’s the Babe after all!—Eric
***
We round out the offense next week with the second half of right field.
A trad-stats view of the upcoming veterans committee ballots
It’s never too late to start a campaign. Now that we know no players have been elected via the Hall of Fame’s Today’s Game committee, we can turn our attention to the 2017 slate of Modern Baseball candidates. And beyond.
Most of the folks on these committees are either ex-players or ex-journalists who exited the profession before the sabrmetric boom. We can’t count on them to accept, let alone grok, the analytics that people like me and Miller bandy about. So we need to use the stats these folks know well to make our point. The trad stats. Baseball card stats.
In the Politics of Glory, Bill James makes a great point when he says that if a player’s career stats fall right in the belly of a whole bunch of Hall of Famers, then he’s got a solid piece of evidence in his favor. James also says that a strong candidate’s resume would be near or above the average performance of a Hall of Famer at his position. Let’s combine these two ideas. For certain key stats and certain key Veterans Committee candidates, we’ll list out how these outsiders would rank among Hall of Famers. If they consistently rank above the Hall’s average at their position, we can guess they would be really good candidates.
Today, we’ll look at hitters we’ve elected to the Hall of Miller and Eric that the Today’s Game and Modern Baseball eras could consider in the coming years.
CATCHER
Number of Hall of Fame catchers: 15
Ranking to be average or better among Hall catchers: 8th
Joe Torre
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS =========================================================================== TOTAL 2209 996 2342 344 59 252 1185 779 23 .297 .365 .452 .817 RANK 3 9 2 6 7 6 7 6 14 7 8 11 8 AVERAGE RANKING = 7TH
Torre sits right above the average Hall of Fame catcher. Of course, he’s a plurality catcher, not a 50% catcher, which could give some voters pause. But if they think of him as a catcher, he’s got very competitive numbers.
Ted Simmons
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS =========================================================================== TOTAL 2456 1074 2472 483 47 248 1389 855 21 .285 .348 .437 .785 RANK 2 6 1 1 9 6 2 4 14 8 11 13 12 AVERAGE RANKING = 7TH
The rap on Simmons is defense, not hitting. Because clearly he has the hitting stats of a Hall catcher.
Thurman Munson
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ========================================================================== TOTAL 1423 696 1558 229 32 113 701 438 48 .292 .348 .410 .756 RANK 14 11 13 13 11 11 14 14 8 8 12 13 14 AVERAGE RANKING = 12TH
Yeah, that’ll be a hard sell, won’t it. We think Munson was deserving of our plaque but from a straight numbers perspective, the VC won’t buy it. His defense was good but not good enough to overcome this kind of deficit and lack of playing time in their eyes.
FIRST BASE
Number of Hall of Fame first basemen: 23 (including Rod Carew, Frank Thomas, Ernie Banks, Harmon Killebrew, Willie Stargell, and Stan Musial)
Ranking to be average or better among Hall first basemen: 12th
Keith Hernandez
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================== TOTAL 2088 1124 2182 426 60 162 1071 1070 98 .296 .384 .436 .821 RANK 15 19 19 13 18 15 21 8 11 17 13 21 20 AVERAGE RANKING = 14TH
Here’s why Hernandez had such a hard time with the BBWAA and why he’ll continue to strike out with the VC. His hitting numbers aren’t superficially amazing like a Bill Terry (.341 average), let alone like the Jimmie Foxxes and Lou Gehrigs. Voters would have to acknowledge that but elect him because he’s the best defensive first basemen ever, while being good enough to hang in the lower reaches of Hall first basemen offensively.
Mark McGwire
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================== TOTAL 1874 1167 1626 252 6 583 1414 1317 12 .263 .394 .588 .982 RANK 19 18 23 23 24 1 14 8 24 23 9 4 4 AVERAGE RANKING = 13TH
We know that McGwire’s passing over had steroids written all over it. But it’s not impossible that he’d be a tough sell anyway. He’s an amazingly limited player: limited to walks and homers. Good choices those. Anyway, if the steroid taint wears off, I’d expect him to make it purely based on his Harmon Killebrew profile, but he’s not anywhere near the top of this heap.
Rafael Palmeiro
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================== TOTAL 2831 1663 3020 585 38 569 1835 1353 97 .288 .371 .515 .885 RANK 3 5 5 2 20 2 6 6 11 18 16 9 11 AVERAGE RANKING = 7TH
There are folks out there who think Palmeiro isn’t worthy. He’s just a compiler. It’s hard to be a compiler and stack up stats like these. Rusty Staub? Hal Baines? Compilers. Rafael Palmeiro? Hall of Famer. Except for that steroid problem….
SECOND BASE
Number of Hall of Fame second basemen: 20 (including Rod Carew and Jackie Robinson)
Ranking to be average or better among Hall second basemen: 11th
Bobby Grich
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================== TOTAL 2088 1033 1833 320 47 224 864 1087 104 .266 .371 .424 .794 RANK 15 16 18 16 21 6 15 5 15 20 9 15 15 AVERAGE RANKING = 14TH
Grich is like a second-base combination of McGwire and Hernandez. Like McGwire, he excels the most in the two most important offensive categories: homers and walks. Like Hernandez, he was a fabulous defensive player. So voters need to go beyond the traditional stats and see the Gold Glove defender with the powerful, patient bat. Collusion didn’t help him either, but I doubt that’s a talking point for these folks.
Willie Randolph
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================= TOTAL 2202 1239 2210 316 65 54 687 1243 271 .276 .373 .351 .724 RANK 12 13 15 16 17 16 20 3 11 16 9 20 17 AVERAGE RANKING = 14TH
Willie Randolph is unlikely to gain election. Ever. His offensive profile is too deadball in this era to get a second look, and his defensive excellence probably wouldn’t be enough for most voters. What you also don’t see here is strong base running value. Still, the trad-stats case for Randolph goes like this:
Willie Randolph was a little better hitter than Nellie Fox, and near or maybe better than Fox in the field. If Nellie Fox is a Hall of Famer, then Randolph makes sense too.
That’s a terrible argument, of course. If–then only makes sense when the if player is a no-brainer Hall of Famer. Randolph’s argument is much more subtle than that, and Fox is a lower rung Hall member. But it wouldn’t surprise me if a lousy argument like that might be palatable to a VC group.
Lou Whitaker
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS =============================================================================== TOTAL 2390 1386 2369 420 65 244 1084 1197 143 .276 .363 .426 .789 RANK 6 11 13 12 17 6 11 3 14 16 12 15 15 AVERAGE RANKING = 12TH
Here’s your most likely guy at second base. Whitaker’s got the power and walks of Grich, a fine glove, and a longer career than both Grich and Randolph to give him a little more clout in the career figures. What he also has is a strong association with Detroit and with Alan Trammell. Since Trammell and Whitaker will likely appear on the ballot together, there’s some narrative to help his case since there could be sentiment toward enshrining them simultaneously. Unless Jack Morris gets in the way.
THIRD BASE
Number of Hall of Fame third basemen: 13 (including Paul Molitor)
Ranking to be average or better among Hall third basemen: 7th
Sal Bando
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================= TOTAL 2019 982 1790 289 38 242 1039 1031 75 .254 .352 .408 .760 RANK 8 11 13 13 14 6 8 7 8 14 10 12 11 AVERAGE RANKING = 10TH
This one’s a tough sell. Bando played his career in a very hard time for hitters, in a ballpark that was very hard for hitters. As a result, his numbers aren’t top-shelf on their surface. There are also differing opinions about his defense with some systems liking him OK and others disliking him. But he won three straight World Series titles and five straight divisions in Oakland when the division meant something. I wouldn’t hold my breath for him.
Buddy Bell
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================= TOTAL 2405 1151 2514 425 56 201 1106 836 55 .279 .341 .406 .747 RANK 5 8 5 5 13 7 8 8 10 10 13 12 12 AVERAGE RANKING = 9TH
Bell is an even longer shot than Bando. His traditional numbers are better than Sal’s, but he played for a lot of lousy teams and never got to strut his stuff in the playoffs. Like Whitaker, he’s a little below his position’s midline, but unlike Sweet Lou lacks the narrative. In reality, his excellent defense plays a very big role in his sabrmetric campaign, but not much of one in his trad-stats campaign as his defensive value isn’t communicated well even by six straight Gold Gloves. Well, and he’d better hope they don’t count his managerial days against him because he’s probably the worst long-time manager in modern baseball history.
Darrell Evans
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================== TOTAL 2687 1344 2223 329 36 414 1354 1605 98 .248 .361 .431 .792 RANK 3 6 9 11 14 3 5 1 7 14 10 10 10 AVERAGE RANKING = 8TH
Evans—who virtually no one remembers outside of Detroit, San Francisco, and online sabrmetric hangouts—was quiet and did nothing flashy. But he lasted forever and racked up some impressive career totals in key stats. I don’t believe for a second that the VC would elect him, but you can see here that he’s got some markers that they should love. He also played a good third base and later a decent first base.
Graig Nettles
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================== TOTAL 2700 1193 2225 328 28 390 1314 1088 32 .248 .329 .421 .750 RANK 3 7 9 11 14 3 6 7 12 14 13 10 12 AVERAGE RANKING = 9TH
I suspect that it’s Nettles who would be first in line among these four hot-corner habitués. His career stats are remarkably similar, damn near identical in many categories to Evans’ (with the exception of SB and walks, and therefore OBP). But Nettles does have a lot of fame and narrative to go with those career totals, and a reputation for Brooksesque defense. Frankly either he or Bell is the most deserving anyway, and given the paucity of third basemen in the Hall of Fame, it’s time the VC looked at guys like Nettles. I think this guy could have a real shot. Probably not next year, though, because those Tigers will get the limelight.
SHORTSTOP
Number of Hall of Fame shortstops: 22 (including Ernie Banks, Monte Ward, and Robin Yount)
Ranking to be average or better among Hall third basemen: 12th
Alan Trammell
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================== TOTAL 2293 1231 2365 412 55 185 1003 850 236 .285 .352 .415 .767 RANK 11 14 10 9 22 5 10 11 11 11 12 9 13 AVERAGE RANKING = 11TH
In these 13 important trad stats, Alan Trammell would average 11th, which, in turn, would put him above the Hall’s average. The only place he scores poorly is triples, and that’s mostly about his having come along well after triples began to decline in favor of homers. All in all, Trammell’s statistics make good case for his inclusion when compared against other Hall shortstops. I would give him odds second only to Jack Morris for election.
LEFT FIELD
Number of Hall of Fame left fielders: 21 (including Stan Musial, Willie Stargell, Babe Ruth)
Ranking to be average or better among Hall left fielders: 11th
Jose Cruz
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================== TOTAL 2353 1036 2251 391 94 165 1077 898 317 .284 .354 .420 .774 RANK 9 20 17 15 13 13 16 12 8 19 20 19 20 AVERAGE RANKING = 15TH
Not that Jose Cruz has an ice cube’s chance in hell of even seeing the ballot, but we elected him and the next fellow, so I wanted to be sure to at least include them. As Bill James pointed out years ago, had Jose Cruz played anywhere other than the Astrodome, he’d have been a huge national star. But because its run-suppressing power, his stat line looks kind of pedestrian. Given that and the importance of his defense to a Hall case, he’ll never get a second look.
Roy White
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================ TOTAL 1881 964 1803 300 51 160 758 934 233 .271 .360 .404 .764 RANK 17 21 19 20 21 14 21 11 8 22 19 21 20 AVERAGE RANKING = 18TH
Same story as Cruz except that the suppression of White’s offense was due to a pitcher’s era and, to a lesser extent than Cruz, his home park. Defense again plays a big part of White’s story. I have no illusions about his chances either.
CENTERFIELD
Number of Hall of Fame center fielders: 19 (including Robin Yount and Andre Dawson)
Ranking to be average or better among Hall center fielders: 10th
Jim Edmonds
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================= TOTAL 2001 1251 1949 437 25 393 1199 998 67 .284 .376 .527 .903 RANK 10 12 16 6 19 5 9 9 15 17 13 8 10 AVERAGE RANKING = 11TH
As far as leftovers go, this one’s pretty tasty. The BBWAA summarily disposed of Jim Edmonds, but just looking at these numbers it’s easy to see both why they did (fewer than 2000 hits) and why they shouldn’t have (everything else). In addition, Edmonds was a highlight-reel defender. Nice job, voters. Oh, and unless the VC changes, I don’t know how they would arrive at a different decision. I mean, they never elect players anymore anyway!
Kenny Lofton
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================== TOTAL 2103 1528 2428 383 116 130 781 945 622 .299 .372 .423 .794 RANK 11 9 10 11 11 12 16 11 4 13 13 17 16 AVERAGE RANKING = 12TH
Seriously? One and done? Lofton was one hell a lot better than that. Actually, there’s a little wider perception than just the BBWAA that Lofton’s not Hall material. Like with Rafael, I don’t understand this position. When I put my analytics together, he’s a solid member of any but the most exclusive Halls of Fame. He’s pretty much an average Hall center fielder, especially once you add in positive defensive value and amazing base running value. Trad stats wise, he might have an incrementally better chance in the VC than Edmonds if only because his steals and impressive runs scored totals give him a narrative to hang a vote on.
Reggie Smith
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================== TOTAL 1987 1123 2020 363 57 314 1092 890 137 .287 .366 .489 .855 RANK 12 16 16 11 17 7 11 11 12 15 15 11 13 AVERAGE RANKING = 13TH
The other Reggie is a very borderline candidate, even for us. He ranks out decently among Hall centerfielders but spent a lot of time in right field, too, where he doesn’t look as great. He was always hurt and that won’t help him either, especially since it hurts his career totals.
Jimmy Wynn
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================== TOTAL 1920 1105 1665 285 39 291 964 1224 225 .250 .366 .436 .802 RANK 13 16 18 16 19 7 15 6 10 20 15 15 16 AVERAGE RANKING = 14TH
The poor Toy Cannon. Like Jose Cruz, his batting stats are just demolished by the Astrodome. But unlike Cruz, he got away from it. To Dodgers Stadium, another well-known pitchers park. As a homer-hitting, high walks, high-steals center fielder, you’d think he’d look pretty good, but the low batting average and park-suppressed slugging percentage are too much context for people to get past. Too bad, they’re missing out on a great player.
RIGHT FIELD
Number of Hall of Fame center fielders: 24 (including Andre Dawson and Babe Ruth)
Ranking to be average or better among Hall center fielders: 12th
Bobby Bonds
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================== TOTAL 1849 1258 1886 302 66 332 1024 914 461 .268 .353 .471 .824 RANK 19 20 21 21 23 9 19 11 3 24 23 15 18 AVERAGE RANKING = 17TH
Once again, there’s a defense argument to be made here that the VC won’t get into, so Bonds’ chances are pretty slim. The power, walks, and speed combo is might impressive, but they’ll have bigger fish to fry. Like this next guy.
Dwight Evans
G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS ============================================================================== TOTAL 2606 1470 2446 483 73 385 1384 1391 78 .272 .370 .470 .840 RANK 8 11 17 12 21 9 11 5 24 24 17 15 13 AVERAGE RANKING = 14TH
Evans is a sabrmetric favorite and long underrated by Hall voters of every stripe due to his OBP-heavy profile. But 385 homers isn’t exactly something to sneeze at. His arm was feared around the league and for great reason, so there’s additional value and narrative that voters could pick up on. I like his chances more than Bonds’ and many others on this list.
As we look at these guys and compare them to positional norms, we should also remember something important. These guys have been passed over because their career totals weren’t in no-brainer territory. So they go to the back door to find their way in. But also, remember that the Hall has made a ton of mistakes. Additionally, given its 217 members, the Hall should have roughly 18–20 men per position. None of the players above falls outside that range in terms of their average ranking in these key categories. In fact, only one even falls as low as that range. The rest improve on that figure. Additionally, the Hall electorates have been too tough on centerfield, third base, and catcher. Those positions are way understaffed, and the men mentioned above would be great steps toward recognizing more Hall of Fame caliber players at those needlessly scarce positions.
Next time out, we’ll look at pitchers to see who on the Modern Baseball and Today’s Game ballots might have a shot from an old-school perspective.
1989 HoME Election Results
Bench, Perry, and Yaz are among the six HoME inductees in 1989.
Our 1989 voting marked the first time since 1984 that we elected two backloggers. It marked the first time since 1983 that we elected four newcomers. And it marked the first time since 1979 that we elected six players in total. The Hall of Miller and Eric welcomes Johnny Bench, Carl Yastrzemski, Gaylord Perry, Fergie Jenkins, Bobby Bonds, and Willie Davis into our esteemed (we think) institution.
The first four were in their debut year, while Bonds made it on his third ballot and Davis got in on ballot number eight. We have now 130 of the greatest players in the game’s history in the HoME, and we’re still planning on 212, so there are 82 more to elect going forward.
Per our rules, players have to be named on both ballots for induction. Take a look at how we voted in 1989.
Miller Eric 1 Johnny Bench Johnny Bench 2 Carl Yastrzemski Carl Yastrzemski 3 Gaylord Perry Gaylord Perry 4 Fergie Jenkins Fergie Jenkins 5 Red Faber Bobby Bonds 6 Bobby Bonds Willie Davis 7 Willie Davis
The Class of 1989
Johnny Bench: If we were to say that he’s the best catcher ever, that comment should be enough, right? Well, Bench is the best catcher ever. He was the NL Rookie of the Year for the Reds in 1968. Two years later, he won his first MVP Award. And in 1972 he won his second. He was a spectacular defender, was said to call a great game, and he had one of the best throwing arms ever, as evidenced by a career CS rate of 43%, and perhaps by ten Gold Gloves. Obviously the guy could hit too. Two home run and three ribbie titles say something. But what might say even more is that he was he hit in the middle of the order for the Big Red Machine. Adjusted for the difficulties of the position, we’re looking at as many as a dozen seasons of All-Star ball, and up to five at the MVP level. The HoME is very proud to welcome this 14-time All-Star and 1976 World Series MVP.
Carl Yastrzemski: In much the same way that Joe DiMaggio is the second greatest Yankee center fielder of all time, Captain Carl was the second best Red Sox left fielder in history. In one of the very best campaigns ever, he won the 1967 AL MVP and triple crown while leading the Impossible Dream Red Sox to the World Series. And Yaz’s ’67 super-season wasn’t a tremendous career outlier. He made 18 All-Star teams, won three batting titles, five OBP titles, three SLG titles, and seven Gold Gloves. He topped 400 home runs when that was a meaningful feat and also topped 3000 hits. For historical comparisons in terms of our rankings, think Joe Morgan, Eddie Mathews, and Dan Brouthers. He’s extremely close to the Hall’s inner circle. You know how good he was? Both of us can actually spell his name.
Gaylord Perry: The master of the spitter would have been a joy to watch in his prime. Everything he threw up there worked. He topped 300 wins and won Cy Young Awards in both leagues while playing for eight teams over 22 years. His signature season was 1972 when he put up 11+ WAR, a 1.92 ERA, and won 24 games for a Cleveland Indian team that played .414 ball when he wasn’t on the mound. Taking his career as a whole, we’re looking at ten or eleven seasons at the All-Star level. That’s a height matched by fewer than a dozen and a half pitchers ever.
Fergie Jenkins: One of the more overlooked great pitchers of all time, probably because he never made it to October, Jenkins is likely one of the top two dozen pitchers ever. Yes, he was that great. With eight All-Star type seasons and a spectacular 1971 when he won 24 games, the NL Cy Young, and posted 11+ WAR, Jenkins was in many ways the Mike Mussina of his time in terms of being under-appreciated. Had he pitched for the A’s or maybe the Reds, there’s a good chance he’d have won 300 games and increased his famous factor. Instead, he’ll have to settle for a spot in the HoME.
Bobby Bonds: You can refer to him as Barry’s dad, Mr. 30/30, or a guy who got traded time after time. Each of those monikers contributes to the way we underrate this all-time great whose chief failing is that he wasn’t Willie Mays. But that’s certainly not fair criticism. Even though Bonds wasn’t ever the best player in his league, he was frequently among them. Depending on how you slice it, he put up as few as six or as many as eight All-Star type seasons. For a dozen years, from 1968-1979, Bonds was the seventh best non-pitcher in the game by WAR. For the half-decade from 1969-1973, he’s just over 2 WAR out of the game’s top spot. His uncommon mix of skills wasn’t fully appreciated in his time, but today we can see he was outstanding.
Willie Davis: We know that candidates at the margins will all have warts. Davis certainly does. His four or five All-Star level seasons may not be a lot, but they have to be viewed within the context of both his era and his position. The late 1960s and early-mid 1970s seem like they may be underpopulated in the HoME. And there really aren’t as many great center fielders as one may think. After making appropriate adjustments for defense and schedule, Davis seems like he’s the 11th best CF among eligibles through 2014. And it’s not like his peak is awful. For a dozen seasons, from 1962-1973, only seven NLers had more value – Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Roberto Clemente, Ron Santo, Billy Williams, Pete Rose, and Willie McCovey. Welcome HoME, 3-Dog.
Retracted Votes
One of the best things about our process is that it takes both of us to vote for a player before he can gain admission into the HoME. However, we don’t always reach the same conclusions at the same times. When we vote for players and they don’t get in, we continue to review their cases. And there are times, not surprisingly, when we change our minds and have to retract a vote. Those retractions are below.
Eric:
Dave Bancroft: I think I will ultimately vote for Bancroft again. We have some wiggle room in the 1910s and early 1920s, and Bancroft is almost certainly the last shortstop candidate I would vote for given that Hughie Jennings’ era is overpopulated, and that we are ahead of the game at shortstop.
Billy Herman: I’ve gone back and now forth yet again. The 1930s are beginning to look like they might be a very populous time for hitters, and I don’t know yet whether that means I should not vote for Herman. Therefore, I’ll hit pause again on him until this becomes clearer.
Solo Votes
As we’ve said many times, it takes votes from both of us to elect a candidate. When only one of us votes for a player, we explain those votes here.
Miller:
Red Faber: With another election cycle came another iteration of my pitching numbers. And another pro-Faber result. He’s ranked #48 now, which is a very comfortable place since we intend to elect 60-63 pitchers in this process. Eric and I are both troubled by Faber’s career shape. He’s a spectacular ultra-peak candidate and a very good career candidate. But in terms of traditional peak and prime, he’s not impressive at all. On the positive side, there are only nine pitchers since 1893 who, just on the mound, top Faber in both his best season and his second best season by WAR – Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Roger Clemens, Kid Nichols, Pedro Martinez, Steve Carlton, Ed Walsh, Amos Rusie, and Joe McGinnity. Of those pitchers only the first six also beat Faber in career WAR on the mound. And among all pitchers, Faber is #27 in mound WAR. On the negative, Faber has only three All-Star-level seasons. And he has only seven of 3+ WAR. For me, the positives outweigh the negatives, so I keep voting for Faber.
That’s all for our 1989 election. Please visit our Honorees page to see the plaques of those elected and to see plenty more information about the HoME.
the Hall of Miller and Eric 