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This is the natural order of things. First you come up with an idea. Then you decide it’s pretty good; you really ought to do something with it. Then you start trying to do something with it, and you realize it’s a lot more complicated than you think. Then you wonder if it’s that good an idea. Then you decide it is and get back at it. Then you’ve got it all worked out just great, and things roll along merrily. Until you realize there’s something you could, or worse should, be doing better! Then it’s time for serious thinking about serious tinkering.
That’s why I’m running away from how I’ve calculated baserunning runs for Negro Leaguers as part of my Major League Equivalency routine (MLE). I found that I couldn’t defend to myself the level of subjectivity that had entered my basepath ballparking. And I’m my most sympathetic audience….
I had to find a means by which to increase the objectivity in my estimations, and today I’ll tell you where I’ve arrived. But first, where did I start?
Initially, I used a player’s stolen bases per opportunity, adjusted for his team, compared to his league. I’d wind my way around to a figure that said, Bob Smith stole 43% more often than his league, in the same opportunities. Then I’d take that and go onto the BBREF play index and see if I could dig up a handful of dudes in the Retrosheet era who did roughly as well and assign a value that I plucked out of the air around those dudes. A good start, but lacking in rigor and objectivity.
So I started with the Negro Leagues Database. Where else? Among the trad stats they display, only three jump to mind as potential speed indicators: steals, runs scored, triples. We lack caught stealing information and any other baserunning info, so those three are it.
Next I went to BBREF’s Play Index. (Side note: Subscribing to it will regrow your bald spot, pay off your mortgage, make your love life better, help you quite smoking, and give you that new-car look and feel. You should subscribe right now.) I grabbed every retired player whose entire career took place in the Retrosheet era and who had 500 or more PA. It’s more than 2,000 careers. Then I set up scatter plots and regression trend lines for three x/y combinations:
X: SB / [ (H – HR – 3B – 2B) + BB + HPB ] compared to the MLB average of the same
Y: Rbaser / PA
R-Squared: 0.46 (kinda correlated)
X: (R – HR) / [ (H – HR – 3B) + BB + HPB ] compared to the MLB average of the same
Y: Rbaser / PA
R-Squared: 0.41 (less kinda correlated)
X: 3B / H compared to the MLB average of the same
Y: Rbaser / PA
R-squared: 4.2E-06 (not correlated)
As I’ve said many times, I’m not a statistician, so if I’ve goofed something up, let me know.
I made an executive decision to only use SB/OPP. Here’s why: The regression suggests that about half of Rbaser/PA has explanatory power somewhere in SB/OPP, and that the same is true for R/TOB at about 40%. However, stolen bases put a runner into scoring position and likely affect R/TOB. There’s bound to be some entanglement there, so I’m just using SB/OPP.
But since only half of Rbaser/PA might be explainable by SB/OPP, I felt like I’d better try augment with something else too. I went back to my original notion of comping against baserunners with similar SB/OPP rates. I had used my hunt-and-peck method for similar MLB hitters, in part, because I’m also not a super database whiz, and I’m using Excel. I couldn’t figure out how to create dynamic ranges for different players that would allow me to compare any player to the MLB average of SB/OPP for his entire career (unweighted by PAs).
Well, it took a while, and it ain’t elegant, but I finally found a cooky work around using the MATCH and OFFSET functions with inputs of a player’s first and last seasons. Now that I had those functions in conjunction, I could calculate a tailored lgSB/OPP rate for anyone in my sample. And I did.
Fortified with that info, I could create a custom comp set for any Negro Leaguer…only comped to what? If I only used the Negro Leaguer’s SB/OPP vs lg I might get a whole lot or very few comps, and what comps I got might not actually be very like the Negro Leaguer at all! So I cheated a little. I used height and weight as my comping stats. Within two inches and five pounds of the player, and you’re in the mix. If not, sorry. (A couple guys so far still didn’t have enough comps, in which case, I added an inch and five pounds to the criteria.) Physical attributes are not a perfect criteria, but they often have a strong affect on speed. Just ask Cecil or Prince Fielder.
Now that I could create some robust comp sets, I took a Negro Leaguer’s SB/OPP vs lg, and located it or its nearest value within the comps. I took the six nearest guys above and below and found their median Rbaser/PA. Bad bing, bada boom.
I’ve allotted 50% of the Negro Leaguer’s Rbaser/PA value to the regression and to the comp set. It looks like this with the regression equation plugged in:
{ 0.5 * [ (0.0022 * player’s SB/OPP v lg) – 0.0024 ] } + ( 0.5 * median Rbaser/PA of comps )
Great, right! There’s just one more little hitch. See, not every city’s box scores included stolen bases for Negro Leagues games. Sometimes even in the same city one team’s boxes tended to report steals more often than others! So we do need to do a little bit of subjective work to establish a player’s SB/OPP because if he played with a team in a low-reporting area, it drives down his SB/OPP since we have hits, walks, and usually hit-by-pitched-ball stats.
The subjective element now is determining which teams had low-reporting and which did not. Then we adjust their home and road opportunities as appropriate. Um, I can’t say this is really scientific, but it’s as good as I can do for now. You start to get a feel for it when you see that a few teams stole more bases than they played games and others didn’t. Or you see teams with drastically low totals compared to others.
1) Guess whether a player was on a high- or low-reporting team
2) Guess which other teams were low-reporters and add their total games played up
3) Guess which other teams were high-reporters and add their total games up
4) Estimate SB OPPs in low-reporting road games by splitting total SB OPPs in half (home and road), then multiplying the road half by the ratio of low to high reporting road teams.
5) Subtract 4 from half the total SB OPPs to get the high-reporting road games.
6) If he played for a low-reporting team, then his total SB OPPs are equal to the result of Step 5. If he’s on a high-reporting team, then add the result of Step 5 to the home half of the SB OPPs.
7) Divide SB into the result of Step 6 to get his SB/OPP
8) Got to figure his league’s reporting-adjusted SB/OPP too, but the league’s OPPs may be different than the player’s. So, first take the league’s low-reporting games (Step 2) and add them to the player’s team’s games, then divide into the league’s total games, then multiply by half the player’s OPPs. If he’s on a high-reporting team, then divide Step 2 into the league’s total games and multiply by half the player’s OPPs.
9) Subtract 8 from half the player’s OPPs, and add the result to half the player’s OPPs to get his league’s total OPPs adjusted for the reporting of SB.
10) Multiply the league’s known SB/OPP times the player’s total OPPs to get the league’s unadjusted SB in the player’s OPPs.
11) Divide Step 10 into Step 9 to get the league’s SB/OPP.
Got all that?
Let’s look at Walter “Rev” Cannady as an example.
When I go through those 11 steps just above here, Cannady comes out at 177% of his leagues (18% v 10%). Plugging him into the regression equation, I get 0.0015 Rbaser/PA, which is about a run a year. Looking at his comps, they ring up at .0019 or 1.2 runs a year. Taking half of each and adding them, it’s .00168 Rbaser/PA, which is about 1.1 runs a year. Applying to Cannady’s estimated PA (10,130), we get about 17 runs for his career.
Earlier, I told you that I wanted to increase the objectivity and reduce the subjectivity. By comparison to hunting and pecking for comps with stolen base info based on partially known opportunities, that’s an improvement. Using regression and a more complete comp set, I have increased my use of objective measures.
Of course, I have added some other kinds of subjectivity as well. There’s plenty of guess work in trying to determine how steals came in games with reported steals and those with unreported steals. I think, however, that there’s a precision increase that probably offsets some of that subjectivity since we’re at least acknowledging the reporting issue and making a conservative to middle-of-the-road attempt to compensate.
The other added subjectivity is the choice to use height and weight as factors for comparison. That’s a subjectivity of choice (editorial subjectivity, if you will), but at least it’s got some reasoning behind it.
Overall, I’m getting mildly more conservative numbers for baserunning, and that’s probably a good thing. It takes a lot of the decision making out of my brain and puts it in Excel’s hands, and in this case, that’s surely a good thing.
I’m working slowly through the 100 or so MLEs I drawn up so far, and once I get through them, I’ll update those already on the site. All remaining players beginning with our left fielders next week will be based on this new baserunning protocol.
[All MLEs updated 7/4/18 to include (a) new 1938 and 1947 data (b) new baserunning-runs estimates(c) new, more objective playing-time estimates]
The Negro Leagues simply didn’t develop many transcendent second basemen. The best right handed athletes played shortstop. For more than half the Leagues’ history, third basemen needed to be better athletes than second basemen. But that doesn’t mean the Negro Leagues didn’t have any good keystone men. Our next two posts will introduce several of them: Bobby Avila, Heberto Blanco, Rev Cannady, Bill Monroe, Pat Patterson, and a few quick-hits as well. We refer you to our Major League Equivalencies (MLEs) for Negro Leagues batters for all the gory details.
You probably know Avila primarily as the fellow who, during the Indians’ magical 1954 season, hit .341 to win the AL batting title. Not surprisingly, his career year. Surprisingly, at age 30. Avila had hit .299, .304, .300,and .286 prior to 1954, so a spike in average like that wasn’t outside his zone. For a second baseman, Avila hit with surprising authority. He earned 87 batting runs from 1950–1955, posted a 116 OPS+, and made three All-Star teams. He had some good pop, averaging 27 doubles, 6 triples, and 12 homers per 162 games. Throw in 17 baserunning runs and slightly above average fielding, and you’ve got a very valuable player. BBREF says so to the tune of 5 WAR per 650 PA. An unwillingness to wear eyeglasses may have inhibited Avila’s production thereafter. He had minor eye surgery in 1955 due to a cyst on his cornea (ick!). Whether or not the surgery affected his vision, something did. He had become nearsighted but resisted wearing glasses at the plate. He eventually relented but wouldn’t wear them on the field. Still, he went downhill quickly.
Avila debuted in the majors at 25, played part time at 26, and didn’t emerge as a regular until age 27. Why the late start? He was a somewhat dark-colored Mexican man, which is why even though he never played in the Negro Leagues, we’re assessing him here. In 1943, Avila got his start at age 19 in the Mexican League. He played well enough for Puebla to earn the starting job and rapidly emerged as a strong offensive performer. From age 20 to age 23, he rang up averages of .334, .350, .359, and .346 in Mexico. It was a good offensive league with several parks at high altitudes, but his peak MLB years bear out the talent he showed south of the border. When he finally signed with the Indians after the 1947 season, the Tribe sent him immediately to the then AAA Baltimore Orioles. Avila (Beto to family and friends) didn’t speak English and had trouble initially adjusting to organized baseball. He hit just .220 in Charm City, but the Indians brought him up in 1949 anyway. He sat on the bench in deference to Joe Gordon and hit .214 in 31 games, used mostly as a pinch hitter and pinch runner. In 1950, he played in half the Indians’ games and hit .299. Gordon retired after the season and the job was his.
All of which is to say that in a normal career not influenced by race and color, Avila’s woodshedding and his uptake of English would have occurred in the US in the minors. These are the subtle ways that the color line influenced even those who crossed it.
Bobby Avila Major Leagues Stats | Minor Leagues Stats | Bio Career: 1943–1959 Destination: NL 1943–1959 Honors: Mexican Baseball Hall of Fame Year Age Lg Pos PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR =========================================================================== 1943 19 AL 2B 50 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.2 2 3 0.4 1944 20 AL 2B 250 6 1 0 1 2 11 1.2 9 20 2.2 1945 21 AL 2B 450 15 2 0 1 4 23 2.6 15 38 4.4 1946 22 AL 2B 580 21 3 0 2 6 32 3.5 20 52 5.8 1947 23 AL 2B 590 15 3 0 2 6 26 2.9 20 46 5.1 1948 24 AL 2B 270 - 9 1 0 1 3 - 4 -0.4 9 5 0.5 1949 25 AL 2B 560 - 3 3 -1 2 5 7 0.7 19 26 2.6 1950 26 AL 2B 560 5 5 -1 -3 3 5 0.5 7 12 1.2 1951 27 AL 2B 615 15 3 -1 6 6 29 2.9 19 48 4.8 1952 28 AL 2B 628 21 2 0 -4 7 26 2.8 20 46 4.7 1953 29 AL 2B 633 7 1 -2 13 6 26 2.7 19 44 4.6 1954 30 AL 2B 629 33 5 0 4 6 48 5.0 19 67 7.0 1955 31 AL 2B 634 9 2 -2 -11 5 3 0.4 19 22 2.3 1956 32 AL 2B 597 -22 5 0 7 5 - 5 -0.5 18 13 1.3 1957 33 AL 2B 528 - 2 0 0 - 5 4 - 3 -0.4 16 13 1.2 1958 34 AL 2B 445 0 -2 0 - 4 3 - 2 -0.4 14 11 1.0 1959 35 AL 2B 306 - 5 0 -1 - 8 1 -11 1.2 12 0 -0.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8326 107 36 -8 4 73 211 24.8 257 466 49.0 Hypothetical MLB Career Rankings (1871–1960) PA: 73rd Rbat: 229th WAA: t-77th WAR: 81st
As is the case for many players, Bobby Avila’s thirties wrecked his chances at a Hall of Miller and Eric career. Cobbling together 5.7 WAR after age thirty is exactly how not to cruise into the HoME. Avila fought injuries. In addition to the corneal cyst he had foot injuries in 1955. Clearly whatever happened to him, after age 33, he lose considerable athleticism. His baserunning value disappeared and his fielding plummeted. That said, this is a career that turns out to look a lot like Hardy Richardson, Tony Lazzeri, or Fred Dunlap. Moderately high peak, decent career length, and about two All-Star years away from being over the line. Or maybe just a few more productive, above average seasons. Maybe if he’d been born five years later, it would have gone very differently.
[Updated 3/31 due to using incorrect minor league Quality of Play factors.]
This quick-footed Cuban got his start in the Negro Leagues prior to the war. He then moved to Mexico where he played most of the rest of his career before finishing up with a few games in the low minors in 1956. He also played winters in his homeland. Blanco’s game didn’t revolve around power…. He hit only 13 homers in the 3,105 plate appearances that comprise his summer professional career. He did use his speed to leg out some triples and steal some bases. He also had a decent batting eye and drew his walks. His career summer triple-slash line of .283/.358/.360 says it most succinctly. If you’re looking for a type of player, he looks something like a righty version of Joey Cora (.277/.348/.369), Fernando Viña (.282/.348/.379), or Bill Speiers (.271/.341/.370). A useful hitter up the middle where the batting requirement to hold a job is basically don’t suck. Blanco is also reputed to have a good glove.
By the way, there’s a little confusion on BBREF about Blanco’s name, and so there are two entries below for his minor leagues stats.
Heberto Blanco Negro Leagues Stats | Minor Leagues Stats (as Heberto) | Minor Leagues Stats (as Harry) | Bio Career: 1941–1956 Destination: NL 1942–1956 Missing data: 1944, 1947, 1949, 1955 Honors: Cuban Baseball Hall of Fame Year Age Lg Pos PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR ========================================================================== 1942 21 NL 2B 300 - 1 0 0 2 3 4 0.5 9 13 1.6 1943 22 NL 2B 470 2 1 0 3 5 10 1.1 15 24 2.8 1944 23 NL 2B 480 3 1 0 3 5 11 1.2 15 26 2.9 1945 24 NL 2B 510 6 1 0 3 5 14 1.5 16 30 3.2 1946 25 NL 2B 530 6 1 0 3 5 15 1.7 17 32 3.6 1947 26 NL 2B 480 3 1 0 3 5 11 1.1 15 26 2.7 1948 27 NL 2B 510 0 1 0 3 5 9 0.9 16 25 2.6 1949 28 NL 2B 480 2 1 0 3 5 10 1.1 15 25 2.6 1950 29 NL 2B 520 4 1 0 3 5 13 1.3 16 29 2.9 1951 30 NL 2B 400 2 1 0 2 4 9 0.9 12 21 2.2 1952 31 NL 2B 430 6 1 0 2 4 13 1.4 13 26 2.9 1953 32 NL 2B 440 - 8 1 0 3 4 - 1 -0.1 14 13 1.3 1954 33 NL 2B 530 3 1 0 3 4 11 1.1 17 24 2.8 1955 34 NL 2B 380 0 1 0 2 3 5 0.6 12 17 1.8 1956 35 NL 2B 80 - 1 0 0 0 1 1 0.1 2 3 0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6540 27 10 0 37 61 135 14.3 204 338 36.3 Hypothetical MLB Career Rankings (1871–1960) PA: 191st Rbat: t-523rd Rfield: 33rd (2B only) WAA: t-179th WAR: 170th
We assumed here that Blanco’s defensive reputation was reasonably accurate. His stolen base record suggests that he was speedy but not Lou Brock out there. He strikes me as either someone who would have led off for a team without an obvious leadoff hitter or someone who would be described all the way through to the 1990s as a “prototypical number two hitter.” That is, a reasonably fast guy who could handle the bat, made good contact, put the ball in play, and had virtually no power. Today he’d bat eight or ninth, but he’d probably be especially valuable to a team with pitchers who relied on inducing weak contact and who had a lineup with good power but not much on-base skill to set the table. In others words, good ballplayer, and a guy you’d want your favorite club to develop, but a complementary player, not a core contributor. The sort of guy who a team would let test free agency the moment he lost a step.
[Updated 4/4/18 with minor park factor corrections.]
Walter “Rev” Cannady was apparently hard to get along with. He played for at least a dozen teams stateside in addition to some winter ball teams, and was described by James Riley as a fellow teammates left alone due to his unpredictable, mean, and sometimes violent tendencies. Sounds like a fun guy. But Cannady was a decent hitter and he had both a good glove and some versatility in the field. If his raw numbers through age forty are annualized, he looks like a 30 double, 10 triple, 10 homer guy with a dash of speed and about 50 walks a year.
Rev Cannady Negro Leagues Stats | Bio Career: 1921–1945 Destination: NL 1921–1942 Missing data: 1923, 1924, 1927, 1929, 1940, 1941 Year Age Lg Pos PA Rbat Rbaser Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR ======================================================================== 1921 19 NL SS 100 4 0 0 1 5 0.5 3 8 0.8 1922 20 NL SS 110 5 0 0 2 7 0.6 3 10 1.0 1923 21 NL SS 460 9 1 -1 6 15 1.5 14 29 2.9 1924 22 NL SS 470 6 1 -1 7 12 1.3 15 27 2.8 1925 23 NL SS 520 5 1 -1 7 12 1.1 16 28 2.7 1926 24 NL SS 580 2 1 -1 8 10 1.1 18 29 3.0 1927 25 NL 2B 550 5 1 4 4 14 1.4 17 31 3.2 1928 26 NL 2B 580 7 1 4 4 16 1.6 18 34 3.5 1929 27 NL 2B 570 7 1 4 4 15 1.4 18 33 3.1 1930 28 NL 2B 520 6 1 4 4 14 1.3 16 31 2.7 1931 29 NL 2B 570 10 1 4 4 19 2.0 18 37 3.8 1932 30 NL 2B 510 - 1 1 4 4 7 0.7 16 23 2.3 1933 31 NL 2B 550 - 3 1 4 4 6 0.6 17 23 2.6 1934 32 NL 2B 560 -14 1 4 4 - 5 -0.5 17 12 1.3 1935 33 NL 2B 560 3 1 4 4 12 1.2 17 30 3.0 1936 34 NL 2B 470 5 1 3 3 12 1.2 15 27 2.7 1937 35 NL 2B 430 8 1 3 3 16 1.6 13 29 3.0 1938 36 NL 2B 400 - 3 1 3 3 4 0.4 12 16 1.7 1939 37 NL 2B 280 5 0 2 2 10 1.0 9 19 2.0 1940 38 NL 2B 250 2 0 2 2 7 0.7 8 14 1.5 1941 39 NL 2B 210 1 0 2 2 5 0.6 7 12 1.3 1942 40 NL 2B 150 - 2 0 1 1 1 0.1 5 6 0.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9400 68 15 48 82 213 21.3 293 505 51.5 Hypothetical MLB Career Rankings (1871–1960) PA: t-38th Rbat: 338th Rfield (second base only): 27th WAA: t-106th WAR: t-71st
This is sorta like what you’d get if you took Billy Herman’s career and smooshed it so that he had 1,500 more plate appearances, and the value he created was spread evenly among more seasons. Or Bid McPhee’s career with a tiny bit of smooshing. Of course the consistency you see here is illusory. It is a remnant of relying on central tendency to develop annualized performance estimates. So Cannady would certainly have had more peaks and valleys. But we do have quite a bit of data on him, and generally he seems to have been reasonably consistent over time. Good ballplayer. Great? Remains to be seen. We still have some data to add to the picture.
This Bill Monroe does not play Bluegrass. He plays second base, third, and shortstop. A contemporary of Grant Johnson, Monroe was one of black baseball’s most important stars in the early 1900s. And apparently among its most marketable, especially to the ladies who were as fond of him as he of they. Monroe was a colorful showboating sort who entertained with outstanding play as well as with tricks such as catching pop flies behind his back.
But Monroe had real baseball chops. He was reputed a very good defensive player who could pick it across the infield. He had good foot speed, and he could hit. In Negro Leagues play and Cuba he showed pop and stole his share of bases. It didn’t last, however, and after his age 34 season, his bat suddenly went south. Then his health went with it. He died from tuberculosis in March of 1915. He was just 37 and left behind accolades of all sorts from highly placed Negro Leagues stars and execs as well as from John McGraw.
Bill Monroe Negro Leagues Stats | Bio Career: 1899–1914 Destination: NL 1899–1912 Missing data: 1901, 1902 Year Age Lg Pos PA Rbat Rbaser Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR ======================================================================= 1899 21 NL SS 400 9 0 0 6 14 1.3 12 27 2.5 1900 22 NL SS 390 3 0 0 5 9 0.8 12 21 1.9 1901 23 NL SS 420 3 0 0 6 9 0.9 13 22 2.3 1902 24 NL SS 480 5 0 0 7 12 1.4 15 27 3.1 1903 25 NL SS 480 17 0 0 7 24 2.4 15 39 3.9 1904 26 NL SS 520 2 0 0 8 9 1.1 16 25 3.0 1905 27 NL SS 520 3 0 0 7 11 1.2 16 27 3.0 1906 28 NL 3B 480 11 0 5 4 20 2.4 15 35 4.3 1907 29 NL 3B 530 12 0 5 4 21 2.6 17 37 4.8 1908 30 NL 3B 530 19 0 5 4 28 3.5 17 44 5.7 1909 31 NL 2B 530 47 0 5 0 52 6.1 17 69 8.1 1910 32 NL 2B 510 0 0 5 0 5 0.5 16 21 2.4 1911 33 NL 2B 450 0 0 4 0 4 0.4 14 18 1.9 1912 34 NL 2B 400 -13 0 4 0 -10 -1.0 12 3 0.3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 6640 119 0 33 57 208 23.6 207 415 47.2 Hypothetical MLB Career Rankings (1871–1960) PA: 181st Rbat: 214th WAA: t-84th WAR: 88th
We’ve made Monroe a shortstop for about half his career, then slid him along the defensive spectrum. Remember in his time, third base and second base were flipped on the spectrum. His playing time by position is kinda weird. In 1907 and 1908 he’s clearly a third baseman. In 1911 and 1912 he’s clearly a second baseman. But beyond that, nothing’s all that clear. Partly that lack of clarity has to do with some very small samples of seasons. Partly he simply roamed the diamond. So we built his MLE around the idea that he started as a shortstop and eventually moved elsewhere. His defensive numbers at shortstop are pretty good in the Nero Leagues database, and they all come from after our 1905 cutoff for shortstop. More over, a guy in the majors wouldn’t move off of shortstop if a team didn’t think he could play it. So we made him an average fielder. It’s possible we’ve shortchanged him in so doing.
Bill Monroe appears to have had some trouble staying in the lineup, particularly in Cuba during the winter. Too much snow, I guess. His early years represent small pieces of seasons, and he’s very hit and miss there. I’m not entirely sure what to make of his playing time record, so I’m playing it pretty straight, but if more data should ever come to light, we find that he was more durable than our MLE currently suggests.
[Updated 4/4/18 with minor park factor corrections.]
Smart guy this one. After his playing career, he became a teacher and eventually superintendent of schools in Houston. Pretty smart on the field too. Patterson hit for average, a little power, and decent speed. He didn’t walk all that often, but he put the ball in play a lot and a lot of his line drives turned into doubles and triples.
We don’t yet have stats for his final three years, making his MLE incomplete. He played his last game in 1949 at age 37, and we don’t know yet how effective he was in those final years. (Another source suggests he played at least one more year in the 1950 Man-Dak league.) That means we’ve given him his career average performance. That probably pumps him up a little. On the other hand, he seems to have had a little trouble staying in the lineup, which may or may not be accurate and which could be ameliorated somewhat by those last three seasons if he played more often.
Pat Patterson Negro Leagues Stats | Bio Career: 1934–1949 Destination: AL 1934–1949 Missing data: 1947–1949, 1950? Year Age Lg Pos PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR =========================================================================== 1934 22 NL 2B 450 16 0 0 1 3 20 2.0 14 34 3.5 1935 23 NL 2B 510 27 0 0 1 4 32 3.2 16 48 4.8 1936 24 NL 2B 520 25 0 0 1 4 30 3.0 16 46 4.6 1937 25 NL 2B 500 8 0 0 1 4 13 1.3 16 28 3.0 1938 26 NL 2B 480 11 0 0 1 4 15 1.6 15 30 3.2 1939 27 NL 2B 530 14 0 0 1 4 19 2.0 17 36 3.7 1940 28 NL 2B 500 15 0 0 1 4 20 2.1 16 36 3.8 1941 29 NL 2B 490 9 0 0 1 4 15 1.6 15 30 3.3 1942 30 NL 2B 460 3 0 0 1 4 9 1.0 14 23 2.7 1943 31 NL 2B MILITARY SERVICE (WWII) 1944 32 NL 2B MILITARY SERVICE (WWII) 1945 33 NL 2B MILITARY SERVICE (WWII) 1946 34 NL 2B 370 19 0 0 0 4 23 2.6 12 35 3.9 1947 35 NL 2B 350 8 0 0 0 3 12 1.3 11 23 2.4 1948 36 NL 2B 290 9 0 0 0 3 13 1.4 9 22 2.3 1949 37 NL 2B 250 8 0 0 0 2 11 1.1 8 19 2.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5700 174 5 1 7 47 233 24.0 178 411 43.1 Hypothetical MLB Career Rankings (1871–1960) PA: 288th Rbat: 146th WAA: 82nd WAR: t-120th
Heck of a player. This is the kind of guy who could be part of a championship team’s core, however, his peak performances probably aren’t flashy enough and his career quite long enough to build out a Hall-level resume. That puts him in the Tony Lazzeri, Del Pratt area of second basemen. Real good player, but not quite enough of him to go around. The difference between Jeff Kent and Pat Patterson is primarily that Kent at least had two seasons at a near-MVP-level of play. Naturally, part of that is to do with how our MLE system flattens out career arcs, but it also has to do with Patterson’s inability to stay in the lineup.
Now it’s time to have a look at three guys you might be surprised to learn don’t look nearly as good in the MLEs as they do in the lore.
Newt Allen Negro Leagues Stats | Bio Career: 1923–1944 Destination: NL 1923–1941 Missing Data: 1926–1927, 1929–1931, 1938 NOTE: Elongated his decline phase to age 40 Lg Pos PA Rbat Rbaser Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR ======================================================================= TOTAL NL 2B 8510 -60 16 11 60 28 2.6 265 293 29.8 Piper Davis Negro Leagues Stats | Minor Leagues Stats | Bio Career: 1942–1958 Destination: NL 1943–1958 Missing Data: 1947–1950 Lg Pos PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR ================================================================================== TOTAL NL 2B-3B-RF 5740 40 0 -2 6 45 89 9.3 179 268 28.6 Bingo DeMoss Negro Leagues Stats | Bio Career: 1910–1928 Destination: NL 1910–1928 Missing Data: 1926–1927 NOTE: Lengthened his career versus first version of this MLE Lg Pos PA Rbat Rbaser Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR ========================================================================= TOTAL NL 2B 8610 -164 2 113 29 -2 0.2 268 267 29.9
* * *
We’ll finish our sweep of keystone sackers next time out as we check in with Tommy Sampson, Bonnie/Bunny/Barney Serrell, George “Tubby” Scales, Marvin Williams, and a special guest.
the Hall of Miller and Eric 