Willie Mays

HoME Rankings 2020, Center Field

A week ago, we touched on Joe Posnanski’s top-100 list, the one where he ranked Willie Mays as the best player ever. Today we see the most basic reason that ranking doesn’t hold water for us. Ty Cobb tops both of our center field lists. It’s close enough that neither of us would declare definitively that Cobb is the game’s best center fielder ever. However, we certainly couldn’t say that it’s Mays either.

Though he ranks only sixth by CHEWS+ and MAPES+, it’s quite possible we’ve had the pleasure of watching the game’s best player ever for the last nine years. Grab Mays and Cobb, Ruth and Aaron, Wagner, Schmidt, and Bonds. Bring all of them. Get a time machine. Drop them all into the game in 2011 at age 19, and see how their careers played out. Given this era’s competition, it’s possible that none of them would compare to Mike Trout.

We’ve all lost a lot in 2020. In terms of sports, not being able to witness a season of Mike Trout’s career has to rank right up there.

As always, we’ll share past positions here. [First Base], [Second Base], [Third Base], [Shortstop], [Left Field]

Let’s see what those center field lists look like.

Anything jump out?

There are six center fielders in the Hall but not the HoME. Cooperstown has seen a way to open their doors to Hugh Duffy, Earle Combs, Kirby Puckett, Edd Roush, Hack Wilson, and Lloyd Waner. At the same time, they’ve managed to keep Paul Hines, Jimmy Wynn, Willie Davis, Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmonds, and Andruw Jones on its outside.

Okay, so I wrote that tidbit, and then I looked back at left field to see how odd it is to have that many players on the wrong side of the in/out line. Turns out that there are eight left fielders in the Hall but not the HoME. And there are nine in the HoME but not the Hall.

I say all of this not because it’s particularly interesting. I say it just to point out how we should always check our assumptions. Always support the thing we presume to be true with data, with research.

Why did something that’s basically inaccurate jump out? I don’t know. Maybe it’s a tightly packed top followed by a lot of mistakes in the top-40. Maybe it’s the way I color code my spreadsheet. Or maybe it’s the way I slept or buttered my toast this morning (I didn’t eat any toast). I don’t really know why I saw a phenomenon that doesn’t really exist.

I do know we need to check our assumptions.

What active players are on their way?

Mike Trout is just one 9-win season away from bettering Joe freakin’ DiMaggio. Unfortunately, there’s nobody else coming. Sure, there was a time when we all though Andrew McCutchen was going to get in one day. It’s a time I like to call 2015.

Who are the best remaining candidates?

Well, you have George Gore, Mike Griffin, and maybe Cy Seymour. But those guys aren’t very close to the HoME, despite the 112 MAPES+ points Gore produces. The next group includes Cesar Cedeno, Bernie Williams, and somehow Brett Butler. With the dearth of center fielders on their way, I think we’re actually going to consider those guys within five or seven years after electing Carlos Beltran. And that brings us back the Andrew McCutchen. Yeah, he’s still likely to fall short of Bernie’s level.

Any big changes this year?

Max Carey is up two spots for Eric. Same with Wally Berger. Jim O’Rourke is down three. And there were two big movers. Hugh Duffy dropped seven spots from #29, but only two CHEWS points. Earl Averill was one of the biggest movers of the year, jumping from #37 to #28, up and impressive seven CHEWS+ points.

On Miller’s side, Billy Hamilton is down two from the #6 ranking last year. Cy Seymour is up four MAPES+ points, jumping from #26 to #21. And there was a great deal of movement toward the bottom of the list. Kirby Puckett, Johnny Damon, and Dale Murphy dropped three spots each. Hugh Duffy and Vada Pinson dropped four spots. Fielder Jones is up two, Pete Browning up three, and Earl Averill is up ten spots and six MAPES+ points. Clearly, Averill is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the BBREF 2020 update.

How about the guys only listed by one of you?

• Eric ranks Jim O’Rourke 24^th in center, while Miller places him 17^th in left.
• He places Lenny Dykstra 37^th, and Miller has him 42^nd.
• Miller has Jimmy Ryan 37^th, and Eric puts him 43^rd.
• Miller ranks Vada Pinson 38^th, while Eric sees him as 42^nd best.

We finish up the guys behind the pitcher next week when we share our right field lists. See you then!

Miller and Eric

HoME Rankings 2020, Left Field

When looking through our left field lists, I had a revelation. Even people with our dispositions, those who evaluate players based on their records, without any regard for PED use, actually do judge PED users somewhat differently. We both rank Manny Ramirez as the 15^th best left fielder ever, the exact same place we both rank Lou Whitaker. Yet, I don’t think we’ve ever devoted a single column inch to Manny’s Hall snub. At the same time, we and all other members of the analytically woke baseball world, dedicate an astounding amount of time and thought to Whitaker and his ilk.

You might note that left field is also home to one of the players with a legitimate claim as the best player ever to take the field, Barry Bonds. The nine time OPS champion and a guy who drew 43 intentional walks during his age-42 season wastes away on the ballot. Two BBWAA votes from now, Bonds will have his fate decided by the likes of Tony La Russa, a guy who would never use substances illegally.

Anyway, it’s just strange that with our hand wringing about someone like Lou Whitaker, we don’t get all that upset about Manny, or even Bonds. Yes, even PED apologists like us aren’t complete PED apologists, it seems.

As always, we’ll share past positions here. [First Base], [Second Base], [Third Base], [Shortstop]

Onto our LF lists!

Anything jump out?

What seems like forever ago, Joe Posnanski began his series of baseball’s 100 best players over at The Athletic. As someone who doesn’t subscribe, I would occasionally see a Twitter teaser, but that was all. From the start, I think we all knew that the “answer” would be one of Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, and Willie Mays. I’m not saying they’re the three best players ever, but it was fairly clear to me that those were the only three who might occupy the top spot. Once Poz got to post #97, naming Hank Aaron baseball’s fourth best player ever, we had his top three.

To my disappointment, #3 was Bonds. And to my horror, honestly, #2 was Ruth.

I don’t hate Mays. I just think he’s overrated. Not by a lot, but overrated nonetheless. If you just go by the numbers, it’s Ruth. And if you timeline because Ruth played in a game without black or Latino players, basically, it’s Bonds. Or Mike Trout? What people don’t think about is that Mays didn’t play in a fully integrated game. White guys didn’t make up less than 80% of the game until Mays was playing his age-34 season. For Bonds, it was 10-20% lower than that.

The Mays article in Posnanski’s series began with romance and quickly moved to an admission that he doesn’t know the identity of best player ever to grace the diamond. But that he does, of course he does. A few thousand words later, Poz offered his first stat, about Mays and doubles. Finishing that thought, he cites Mays as the only member of the 400 double, 100 triple, 330 home run, and 250 stolen base club. By the way, if you drop the homer total to a round 300, Mays is joined by Steve Finley in a club of two.

For Posnanski, it’s about romance and baseball prose near as beautiful as Mays must have been in center field. If it were about numbers, I don’t think it could be Mays. Here’s what MAPES+ has to say.

   Bonds   Mays   Ruth
========================
1  12.25  11.32
2  11.73  11.27
3  11.28  11.08
4  10.15  10.83
5   9.78  10.47
6   9.54  10.42
7   9.05   9.70
8   9.02   9.56
9   8.49   9.38
10  8.23   9.03
11  8.19   8.90
12  8.19   8.72
13  8.04   8.53
14  7.70   6.43
15  7.19   5.95
16  6.99   5.09
17  5.79   5.06
18  4.66   4.89
19  4.07   3.05
20  3.78   2.21
21  3.48   1.43
22  0.52  -0.07

And don’t forget, Mays was done when he was done. Barry Bonds won an OBP title in his final season and posted a 169 OPS+, a mark that easily tops Mays’s career mark of 156.

Let me be clear here. Posnanski spent something like half a million words saying he wasn’t really sure. I spent a few dozen saying I am. Let me also say that I’d trust the person wise enough to express doubt far more than I’d trust the person who thinks he has all the answers. Dunning, meet Kruger.

Still.

What active players are on their way?

Ryan Braun at #29 is the highest ranked active player on either of our lists, but it can hardly be said that he’s on the way. He won’t be worth three wins from now until the end of his career, right? There are only five players we both rank in the top-100. Four are Alex Gordon, Brett Gardner, Yoenis Cespedes, and Starling Marte. There’s no HoME threat among that bunch. The other player is Christian Yelich, who ranks 49^th on both of our lists. When last we watched baseball, Yellich was one of the best players in the game and only 27 years old. Missing 2020 certainly isn’t going to help, but if he can put together a couple of additional elite-level campaigns, he might have a shot.

Who are the best remaining candidates?

Charlie Keller, Ralph Kiner, and Joe Medwick are all over 95 CHEWS+ and MAPES+ points. From 1939-1943, Keller was baseball’s fourth most valuable position player by WAR, trailing only Ted Williams and teammates Joe Gordon and Joe DiMaggio. Of course, Williams and DiMaggio didn’t play in 1943, but let’s leave that alone for now. Fourth most valuable over a four-year span is impressive regardless of the circumstances. Keller turned 27 in 1944, but he was on his way to the US Maritime Service. Upon returning at the end of 1945, he was a star once again, at least for a couple hundred games. At that point, a slipped disc in his back effectively ended his career. Kiner and Medwick have their supporters, of course, but should the Hall elect a backlogger we’ve already elected in the next couple of years, I suspect we’re going to take a very long look at Keller.

Any big changes this year?

Eric sees Brian Giles up a couple of spots. Kip Selbach fell five spots to #34, but it’s just a loss of two CHEWS+ points. No biggie. For Miller, Jim O’Rourke and Augie Galan are up two spots each. Ralph Kiner and Bob Johnson fall two spots each. And the biggest mover is Charlie Keller, up three spots, though just one MAPES+ point. Again, no big deal.

How about the guys only listed by one of you?

There are four at different positions and two on Miller’s but not Eric’s.

• Eric has Pete Rose #7 in left field, while Miller puts him #12 at first base.
• Eric has Joe Jackson #9 in left field. You’ll have to wait two weeks before Miller’s right field reveal.
• You’ll also have to wait until then for Miller’s Brian Giles ranking; Eric puts him #22 in left.
• Miller lists Jim O’Rourke #17 in left field. A week from now, you’ll see where Eric ranks him in center.
• Charley Jones is #39 for Miller. He’s #45 for Eric.
• Brian Downing is #40 for Miller. He’s #42 for Eric.

Next week, it’s center field. Hope to see you then!

Miller and Eric

The Best 125 Center Fielders Ever

In some ways, center field is the most interesting position on the diamond for me. First, we disagree with much of the baseball loving world by putting Willie Mays second at the position. Truth be told, if you put him first we don’t mind. We don’t even think you’re wrong. Nor are you wrong to put Cobb there though. And for fans of a certain age, that’s sacrilege. What’s even more interesting to me is that Tris Speaker is so clearly greater than Mickey Mantle. For those who are wondering, yes, it’s a DRA thing. Still, the gap between Speaker and Mantle is significant enough that no matter your defensive metric of choice, you’d be left with the same conclusion (assuming you think defense counts…).

Only three position differences here. Eric likes both Jim O’Rourke and Darin erstad here, while I put them in left field and first base respectively. I place Larry Hisle in center, while Eric prefers him in left.

For explanations of our systems and our lists at other positions, please see the links below.

[CHEWS+], [MAPES+], [Catcher], [First Base], [Second Base], [Third Base], [Shortstop], [Left Field]

We switch to BBWAA ballot coverage on Friday, but we’ll be back on Monday with right fielders.

Miller

Happy Retirement, Adrian!

As I’m sure you know by now, the competition Chipper Jones has for best third baseman of this era has announced his retirement. So that got me to thinking, er, playing with BBREF’s awesome Play Index. One thing I found, which is pretty cool, is that Beltre put up the most WAR in the game over the past fifteen years. And there I went down the rabbit hole.

Below is a chart with all 15-year periods in the game’s history since the start of the National Association in 1871, along with the best position player of that period. You’ll see that Beltre is in very good company.

   
1871-1885  Cap Anson
1872-1886  Cap Anson
1873-1887  Cap Anson
1874-1888  Cap Anson 
1875-1889  Cap Anson
1876-1890  Cap Anson
1877-1891  Cap Anson
1878-1892  Roger Connor
1879-1893  Roger Connor 
1880-1894  Roger Connor
1881-1895  Roger Connor
1882-1896  Roger Connor
1883-1897  Roger Connor
1884-1898  Roger Connor
1885-1899  Roger Connor
1886-1900  Billy Hamilton
1887-1901  Billy Hamilton
1888-1902  Ed Delahanty
1889-1903  Ed Delahanty
1890-1904  Ed Delahanty
1891-1905  George Davis
1892-1906  George Davis
1893-1907  Honus Wagner
1894-1908  Honus Wagner
1895-1909  Honus Wagner
1896-1910  Honus Wagner
1897-1911  Honus Wagner
1898-1912  Honus Wagner
1899-1913  Honus Wagner
1900-1914  Honus Wagner
1901-1915  Honus Wagner
1902-1916  Honus Wagner
1903-1917  Honus Wagner
1904-1918  Ty Cobb
1905-1919  Ty Cobb
1906-1920  Ty Cobb
1907-1921  Ty Cobb
1908-1922  Ty Cobb
1909-1923  Ty Cobb
1910-1924  Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker
1911-1925  Tris Speaker
1912-1926  Tris Speaker
1913-1927  Tris Speaker and Babe Ruth
1914-1928  Babe Ruth
1915-1929  Babe Ruth
1916-1930  Babe Ruth
1917-1931  Babe Ruth
1918-1932  Babe Ruth
1919-1933  Babe Ruth
1920-1934  Babe Ruth
1921-1935  Babe Ruth
1922-1936  Babe Ruth
1923-1937  Babe Ruth
1924-1938  Lou Gehrig
1925-1939  Lou Gehrig
1926-1940  Lou Gehrig
1927-1941  Lou Gehrig
1928-1942  Mel Ott
1929-1943  Mel Ott
1930-1944  Mel Ott
1931-1945  Mel Ott
1932-1946  Mel Ott
1933-1947  Mel Ott
1934-1948  Mel Ott
1935-1949  Ted Williams
1936-1950  Ted Williams
1937-1951  Ted Williams
1938-1952  Ted Williams
1939-1953  Stan Musial
1940-1954  Stan Musial
1941-1955  Stan Musial
1942-1956  Stan Musial
1943-1957  Stan Musial
1944-1958  Stan Musial
1945-1959  Stan Musial
1946-1960  Stan Musial
1947-1961  Stan Musial
1948-1962  Mickey Mantle
1949-1963  Willie Mays
1950-1964  Willie Mays
1951-1965  Willie Mays
1952-1966  Willie Mays
1953-1967  Willie Mays
1954-1968  Willie Mays
1955-1969  Willie Mays
1956-1970  Willie Mays
1957-1971  Willie Mays
1958-1972  Willie Mays
1959-1973  Hank Aaron
1960-1974  Hank Aaron
1961-1975  Hank Aaron
1962-1976  Hank Aaron
1963-1977  Carl Yastrzemski
1964-1978  Joe Morgan
1965-1979  Joe Morgan
1966-1980  Joe Morgan
1967-1981  Joe Morgan
1968-1982  Joe Morgan
1969-1983  Joe Morgan
1970-1984  Mike Schmidt
1971-1985  Mike Schmidt
1972-1986  Mike Schmidt
1973-1987  Mike Schmidt
1974-1988  Mike Schmidt
1975-1989  Mike Schmidt
1976-1990  Mike Schmidt
1977-1991  Rickey Henderson
1978-1992  Rickey Henderson
1979-1993  Rickey Henderson
1980-1994  Rickey Henderson
1981-1995  Rickey Henderson
1982-1996  Cal Ripken
1983-1997  Barry Bonds
1984-1998  Barry Bonds
1985-1999  Barry Bonds
1986-2000  Barry Bonds
1987-2001  Barry Bonds
1988-2002  Barry Bonds
1989-2003  Barry Bonds
1990-2004  Barry Bonds
1991-2005  Barry Bonds
1992-2006  Barry Bonds
1993-2007  Barry Bonds
1994-2008  Barry Bonds
1995-2009  Alex Rodriguez
1996-2010  Alex Rodriguez
1997-2011  Alex Rodriguez
1998-2012  Alex Rodriguez
1999-2013  Alex Rodriguez
2000-2014  Albert Pujols
2001-2015  Albert Pujols
2002-2016  Albert Pujols
2003-2017  Albert Pujols
2004-2018  Adrian Beltre

Thanks for everything, Adrian.

And happy Thanksgiving to all of you.

Miller

All-Time HoME Leaders, Center Field – 1-20

Do you have a good sense of what’s going to happen with Carlos Beltran when he hits the Hall ballot in a few years? I don’t. The guy never led the league in anything meaningful, he wasn’t very healthy during the second half of his career, and he had one of the more memorable called third strikes in the game’s history. On the other hand, he did make nine All-Star teams, he’s eighth in JAWS at his position (at least until Mike Trout passes him), and his post-season career overall was excellent, as evidenced by a 1.021 OPS. I’m going to err on the side of progress on this one. The voting body as a whole is getting better and better. Yes, that’s in part due to purging of old-school writers and new-school thinkers getting votes. It’s also due to some older BBWAA members making progress, learning how to think differently. So that’s it, the introduction to the first 20 guys in center.

Oh yeah, we both rank Willie Mays behind Ty Cobb [ducks].

Maybe you’ll like the rankings at other positions more. Here they are.

[MAPES+], [CHEWS+], [1B, 1-20], [1B, 21-40], [2B, 1-20], [2B, 21-40], [3B, 1-20], [3B, 21-40], [SS, 1-20], [SS, 21-40], [C, 1-20], [C, 21-40], [LF, 1-20], [LF, 21-40]

Center Field – 1-20

Where do we project the active player(s) to finish in our rankings?

Mike Trout

Finally, a really fun one! Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. If you’re too young to have seen Willie Mays, it’s possible he’s the best player you’ve ever seen. Sure, he’s behind a bunch of guys now, but for how long? A season of just 6.0 adjusted WAR gets him past Kenny Lofton, Carlos Beltran, Jim Edmonds, Andruw Jones, and Paul Hines. Since Trout is just 27 this year, let’s hold him at that conservative 8.4 for two years before decreasing it by one win per year until he reaches 10. If that were to happen, he’d also pass Richie Ashburn, Billy Hamilton, Ken Griffey, and Joe DiMaggio. Mantle is next on the list, but I think he’s too far away for Trout. Here’s what he’d need: 9.0, 9.0, 8.0, 8.0, 7.0, 7.0, 6.0, 5.0, 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, and 1.0. At that point, he’d be 38. And absolute greats can be pretty awesome at that age, worth far more than just 1 WAR. Ted Williams and Barry Bonds topped 9.0, and Honus Wagner was worth 8.0. Babe Ruth (and Bob Johnson) topped 6.0. And Eddie Collins, Joe Morgan, Bill Dahlen, Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, and Ty Cobb played like All-Stars. I’m not ready to say that Trout is those guys. All I’m saying is that those guys are great even when they’re old. Maybe Trout is that great. Maybe Mantle falls. Maybe.—Miller

We all get it. Mike Trout’s amazing. Yada yada yada. Our new normal: Someone posts some amazing tidbit about Mike Trout, and we just acknowledge it briefly then move along. This guy is doing things unseen in several generations, and he is absolutely crushing the league. How badly? In the seven seasons from 2012–2018 (through May 11^th), Trout earned 56.8 BBREF WAR. The next highest total was a tie between Josh Donaldson and Robinson Cano at 38.0, which means that Trout has exceeded the second best total by 49%. Forty-flippin’-nine percent!!! That’s like a person running a two-hour marathon, and the second place finisher clocks in at three hours.

But is this level of complete and total dominance rare? With the help of BBREF’s Play Index, which you subscribe to immediately, I looked up every seven-year stretch in big league history, and, yes, Trout’s 49% lead is the highest. In fact, he leads the next best by 8 percentage points (Barry Bonds leading Cal Ripken by 41% from 1989–1995). In fact only two other players led their second-place finishers by more than 30%: Ross Barnes over George Wright from 1871–1877 (32%) and Bonds leading Rickey Henderson from 1988–1994 by 31%. Once again, Mike Trout is doing things we’ve never seen in our lifetimes, or even across all time.

Digging a little deeper, only 35 different men have led MLB in WAR over a seven-year span. Just 35 in the nearly 150 years we’ve been at this professional baseball thing. Of the 55 who have finished second, 33 appear on the leader list, so en toto, a mere 57 players have managed to appear on these lists, combined. Trout has now turned the trick three times (assuming that Cano and Donaldson don’t managed to gain nearly 20 WAR in 2018’s remaining months), making him only the 21^st player to do so. The other 20?

• Barry Bonds: 13 times
• Babe Ruth: 11
• Honus Wagner: 10
• Willie Mays and Stan Musial: 9
• Ty Cobb, Albert Pujols, and Mike Schmidt: 7 times
• Cap Anson: 6 times
• Ed Delahanty and Lou Gehrig: 5 times
• Dan Brouthers, Roger Connor, Mickey Mantle, and Joe Morgan: 4 times
• Wade Boggs, Roberto Clemente, Billy Hamilton, Rickey Henderson, and Alex Rodriguez: 3 times.

Any time you’re a player under 27, and you’re in a group with Boggs, Clemente, Hamilton, Henderson, and A-Rod, you can probably feel good about your Hall of Fame chances. Given the gap between Trout and the next-best, it’s pretty likely he’s going to reach at least four to six instances of this particular way of looking at things, and the names only get better as the we go up the list. Amazing.—Eric

Where do our rankings diverge the most from the conventional wisdom?

Where do I begin? Our first seven are pretty conventional, actually. But then there’s Put Put Ashburn who took for bloody ever to reach the Coop, and whose combo of high OBPs, steals, and ace centerfielding we find highly compelling. Paul Hines hasn’t gotten much of any attention from the Veterans Committees, and think he’s pretty great. Jim Edmonds and Kenny Lofton got knocked off crowded Hall ballots due to the 5 percent rule, and The Toy Cannon didn’t even get one stinking vote in 1983 before falling off the slate. I’m not sure whether Willie Davis ever appeared on a Hall ballot. Andruw Jones just barely avoided getting thrown in his Hall of Fame rodeo. We’ve got all these guys in our top twenty. We have the Duke juuuuuuust inside the top fifteen as opposed to chumming with Willie and Mickey, we’ve got little-known 1800s guys popping onto the bottom of the top twenty, and we don’t have any of Kirby Puckett, Larry Doby, Earl Averill, Edd Roush, or Earle Combs in it. Yeah, we’re flying our centerfield freak flags high. Or maybe geek flag is a better term.—Eric

It has to be Ty Cobb and Willie Mays. I think a year or three ago some ESPN piece called Mays the best player in baseball history. That’s strange. It’s Ruth, it’s Ruth, it’s so clearly Ruth. Unless you timeline. And then it’s Bonds. Unless you think PEDs changed everything. And then it’s, um, maybe Mays? Or a bunch of other potential guys. Anyway, if ESPN says the best player ever is Mays and we don’t even think he’s the best at his position, we diverge most from conventional wisdom on Cobb and Say Hey. Look at our numbers though. The two are separated by three percentage points for me and four for Eric. At their level, that’s a virtual tie. You say Mays was better than Cobb? Okay, I’m not going to argue.—Miller

Where do we disagree with one another the most?

Our order for the first eight is identical. Then our next seven are the same, though in a different order. And then there’s a bit of separation in some, but most players are close enough.—Miller

Primarily, Jim O’Rourke. Now, most folks think of Orator Jim as a left fielder, but a) he played pretty much everywhere, and b) he’s a centerfielder. Here’s the appearances that BBREF current estimates for O’Rourke by position:

• C: 231
• 1B: 214
• 2B: 2
• 3B: 148
• SS: 40
• LF: 770
• CF: 463
• RF: 217
• P: 6

Not that is utility. Says in that list that O’Rourke’s appearances in centerfield trail his appearances in left field by 300 games. But when it comes to the 19^th Century, things get wacky. The leagues’ schedules changed almost constantly until 1904 when the 154-game slate became the standard. Every few years, as the game’s popularity grew, the magnates would tack on more games, increasing profits on ticket sales and concessions. Yay! More baseball! But for guys like me who have a little dollop of engineering in their brain, assigning a primary position without accounting for the schedule feels not quite right. Especially when you also prefer to assign position based on where the player earned the most value. (For examples why, see Banks, Ernie and Rose, Pete.) So when we actually break out O’Rourke’s appearances, we find out that most of his innings in left field came in the last seven years of his career, when the schedule was as much as twice as long as in his first ten or fifteen years. During that earlier time, O’Rourke got most of his centerfielding in. Even if we adjusted the innings for a 162 sked and all that, it probably wouldn’t make enough difference to overcome the late left field advantage, but it would be awfully close. But when I season by season partition his WAR (with all my adjustments baked in) based on the percentage of his defensive innings played (or estimated to have be played) at each position, centerfield wins out over left field. Much of that is due to the fact that O’Rourke was at his physical peak during the late 1870s and a few subsequent seasons when he played centerfield most often. He was in his closing act when he went to left field to stay late in his days. “Simple” as that.—Eric

Are there any players who MAPES+/CHEWS+ might overrate or underrate? 

Rich Ashburn had a short career by the standard of great players—just fifteen years. He rarely missed a game, so his plate appearances don’t reflect it, and he went out on a high note. Well, as high as you can get on the 1962 Mets, for whom he netted 2.1 WAR with a 121 OPS+. If Whitey had chosen to keep grinding along with the Amazings, he might have slipped a couple pegs down the ladder. Any system that prefers longevity to peak or prime value might see Ashburn a little less favorably.—Eric

If defensive numbers are overblown, as Bill James suggests, we may overrate Andruw Jones. If the mythology put into song by Terry Cashman is right, we may underrate Duke Snider. But I want to take a shot at explaining a player who we rank correctly. I am incredibly confident that Joe DiMaggio is exactly the fifth best center fielder ever. At the HoME, we don’t give credit for seasons missed due to military service. Maybe we should, but I prefer our position for a myriad of reasons. Still, let’s say we replace DiMaggio’s three missed seasons. If we give him 5.6 WAR each year, which tips just a little more to what he did before he left compared to when he returned, he’s still fifth.—Miller

***

Join us back here in a week as we finish off center field.

The HoME’s Inner Circle

Not too long ago I read a tweet calling Jim Palmer an inner circle Hall of Famer. I immediately recoiled. Then I did what any stats guy or gal would do. I got out my spreadsheet.

What I found is Palmer’s name next to the number 31 among hurlers. When I last checked with Eric, he had Palmer 35^th. And by JAWS, he’s 37^th. I was satisfied; I felt my initial reaction was pretty much justified. But then I thought some more and realized that if I’m going to take pride in what I thought was a correct reaction, I’d better have an answer to who belongs in the inner circle.

So let’s think about the HoME. As of today, we’ve inducted 220 players. How many of those players do we think should be in the inner circle? Through the magic of BBREF, I know that there have been approximately 19,100 players in major league history. That means one out of 86 or 87 players ever is in the HoME. If we took the same percentage as the inner circle, we’d be looking at three guys, maybe Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, and Walter Johnson. Maybe. But three guys don’t form a good circle.

Let’s reconsider. If, for example, we consider only hitters who had extensive careers, perhaps we put the mark at 5,000 plate appearances. Then we may have something. There are just shy of 1,000 hitters at that level, and there are about 160 hitters in the HoME. So about 16% of all players with what I’m calling extensive careers are in the HoME. And if we take 16% of the players in the HoME, we have 35 players in the HoME’s inner circle. That would be 9-10 pitchers and 25-26 hitters. And that seems reasonable enough.

So by my fictional and unofficial standard, here’s the inner circle of the Hall of Miller and Eric, or at least a reasonable facsimile thereof.

C: Johnny Bench
1B: Stan Musial, Lou Gehrig, Cap Anson, Jimmie Foxx, Roger Connor
2B: Rogers Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Nap Lajoie, Joe Morgan
3B: Mike Schmidt, Eddie Mathews
SS: Honus Wagner
LF: Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Rickey Henderson
CF: Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Mickey Mantle
RF: Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Mel Ott, Frank Robinson, Roberto Clemente
P: Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Roger Clemens, Pete Alexander, Kid Nichols, Tom Seaver, Christy Mathewson, Lefty Grove, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson

Issues:

• Coming up soon will be Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols, probably in place of Roger Connor and Joe Morgan.
• I’m not so comfortable that there’s only one catcher, and I’m not at all confident that he’s the best ever. I really like Buck Ewing and Gary Carter. Maybe I should have one of them over Connor. But what would have happened when A-Rod came up? And Pujols?
• What happens when Mariano is eligible? It’s possible I could add him over Gibson if Gibson made the list. Or could I? Even though I’m a shill for Mo and always will be, I can’t take him over Johnson.
• I considered both Jack Glasscock and Bill Dahlen. In the end, I decided that guys not even in the Hall couldn’t be part of the HoME’s inner circle. Neither is a slam dunk, and A-Rod will be SS #2 in a few years anyway.
• Oh, and Jim Palmer isn’t close to any reasonable inner circle.

Do you think my inner circle is too large? Too small? Missing someone? Please let me know in the comments.

Miller

End of the Year HoME Roundup, CF

Continuing down the road with our post-season evaluation of active major leaguers, today we move to center field. What are the chances Mike Trout and others eventually get elected to the Hall of Miller and Eric? Read on to find out. And please check out our analysis of other positions in this series.

FIRST BASE | SECOND BASE | THIRD BASE | SHORTSTOP | LEFT FIELD |
CENTER FIELD | RIGHT FIELD | CATCHER | RELIEF PITCHERS | LEFT-HANDED PITCHERS | RIGHT-HANDED PITCHERS

Carlos Beltran

2017 BBREF WAR:
-0.4

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller:   12
Ahead of Kenny Lofton, Duke Snider, and Mike Trout.
Trailing Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds, and Paul Hines.

Eric: 10
Ahead of Paul Hines, Mike Trout, and Andruw Jones
Trailing Billy Hamilton, Rich Ashburn, and Jim Edmonds

Current career trajectory:
Beltran’s career could be over after a lousy 2017 campaign.

HoME Outlook:
But what a great career it is/was. He’s one of the greatest base stealers of all time with an 86% success rate in 361 attempts. He’s hit nearly 450 homers, collected 2725 hits, poled 565 doubles and 78 triples and walked 1084 times. He even leads all active players in sacrifice flies for Pete’s sake. Defensively, until his legs gave out in his early thirties, Beltran played plus defense and sometimes plus-plus defense. About the only thing he couldn’t do was pitch, though he never tried in a game. For years, concerned sabrmetric citizens bemoaned a likely shunning by the writers, but his longevity and several blistering post-season series have made that outcome unlikely. Then again, HoME-wise, he’s been a made man since somewhere between 2008 and 2010.
—Eric

Mike Trout

2017 BBREF WAR:
6.7

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller:   15
Ahead of Jimmy Wynn, George Gore, and Max Carey.
Trailing Duke Snider, Kenny Lofton, and Carlos Beltran.

Eric: 12
Ahead of Andruw Jones, Kenny Lofton, and Duke Snider
Trailing Jim Edmonds, Carlos Beltran, and Paul Hines, and none of them for long

Current career trajectory:
No one is like Mike Trout. He’s doing things that only guys with names like Cobb, Mantle, and Mays do. Assuming he’s still MIKE TROUT in 2018, he could conceivably pass Billy Hamilton and Ken Griffey, Jr., in my personal rankings. In just 4700 or so PAs. Extreme? These three all have basically the same seven-year peak after all of my adjustments: 52–54 WAR. But because Trout has only played for seven years, we’re including his 135-PA 2011 season, and the 0.5 WAR my system spits back for it. So if Trout has merely a 7.0 WAR season next year, then his peak will be not 53 WAR but 60. Here’s the list of guys who in my system have assembled a 60+ WAR seven-year peak (nonconsecutive):

1. Babe Ruth: 85
2. Rogers Hornsby: 77
3. Ty Cobb: 76
4. Ted Williams: 76
5. Willie Mays: 74
6. Barry Bonds: 72
7. Nap Lajoie: 72
8. Tris Speaker: 71
9. Honus Wagner: 69
10. Stan Musial: 68
11. Lou Gehrig: 68
12. Eddie Collins 67
13. Mickey Mantle: 66
14. Hank Aaron: 64
15. Alex Rodriguez: 64
16. Mike Schmidt: 64
17. Albert Pujols: 63
18. Rickey Henderson: 62
19. Jimmie Foxx: 62
20. Carl Yastrzemski: 60

You couldn’t ask for better company. I’m rooting for Trout’s return to 10-WAR play just like everyone else, but even a mere fringe-MVP campaign puts him into some amazing company.

HoME Outlook:
Wait, what? He needs a rest of his career? Well, sure, of course. But if Mike Trout played replacement level baseball for another 6000 PA he’d still be a HoMEr.
—Eric

Curtis Granderson

2017 BBREF WAR:
1.5

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller:   50
Ahead of Andy Van Slyke, Earle Combs, and Steve Finley.
Trailing Devon White, Edd Roush, and Andrew McCutchen

Eric: 46
Ahead of Torii Hunter, Andy Van Slyke, and Earle Combs
Trailing Edd Roush, Earl Averill, and Devon White

Current career trajectory:
An interesting career is winding down. His bat and glove are both still passable though, unless you consider an elevated infield pop rate skill degradation. He’ll have a job if he wants it and doesn’t demand huge money.

HoME Outlook:
Clearly he’s not going. But Edd Roush is in the Hall of Fame, and Curtis Granderson will retire as much the same player, so anything is possible.
—Miller

Andrew McCutchen

2017 BBREF WAR:
2.5

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller:   45
Ahead of Edd Roush, Devon White, and Curtis Granderson.
Trailing Torii Hunter, Fred Lynn, and Lenny Dykstra.

Eric: 39
Ahead of Fred Lynn, Ellis Burks, and Roy Thomas
Trailing Mike Cameron, Vada Pinson, and Lenny Dykstra

Current career trajectory:
Trajectory connotes an arc to me. Like the trajectory of a baseball off a bat. Sure, spin will affect it greatly, but there’s still a roundness of some sort. Not McCutchen. That pothole in 2016 dropped the bottom out of the parabola. A bounce back to merely average in 2017 sure makes it seem like the end of his prime. His rebound offensively earned him a mere 16 batting runs, less than half of his peak years. His doubles have begun to ebb away. He hits about half as many triples now and steals fewer than half as many bases. With the loss of batting skill has come a drop in walk rate. His BABIPs have plunged 30 to 50 points thanks, surely, to some combination in loss of batting skill and speed. Indeed, on the bases, he turned in his third straight year of -3 runs or more. The percentage of extra bases he’s taken once on base has dipped from well above average (peak in the 60%+ range) to Ortizian (29%, 27%, 37% in the last three years). In the field, his continued immobility cost the 2017 Bucs 13 runs, his fourth consecutive campaign under par, and third of four in double-digit negatives. The saving grace to all of this could be a move to right field. No, he doesn’t have the arm of a right fielder, but his range, even diminished as it now is, plays well enough there to be average or positive. That was the plan for 2017, but Starling Marte’s untimely suspension crippled not only the Bucco’s offense, but its defense, forcing McCutchen back to center, which he then never relinquished. Hopefully the team, almost certain to pick up his cheap option, will once again station him in the rightmost pasture in 2018.

HoME Outlook:
Curiouser and curiouser, I’d say. Cutch’s peak is only decent since 2016 and 2017 ate up two years of what should be his prime. If he picked up 20 more WAR in his next 3000 plate appearances—4 a year for the next five or six years—he might squeak by as a borderline candidate. Or not. He’s such a wild card at this point, an amazing thing to say about someone whom two years ago could nearly have written his ticket to immortality with one more great season or a couple merely good ones.
—Eric

Adam Jones

2017 BBREF WAR:
2.5

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller:   66
Ahead of Dwayne Murphy, Brady Anderson, and Chili Davis.
Trailing Hack Wilson, Bill Lange, and Dummy Hoy.

Eric: 67
Ahead of Mickey Rivers, Brady Anderson, and Al Oliver
Trailing Dummy Hoy, Bill Lange, and Dwayne Murphy

Current career trajectory:
Before discussing Jones, let me just interject how crazy it is to call Chili Davis a center fielder in my rankings. Sure, I don’t categorize anyone as a DH since comparison would be so difficult. But center field? Yeah, he played 539 games there, more than at any other defensive position. Still, it’s weird. Back to Adam Jones. What a solid citizen and player. When the season begins, the Orioles know what they’re going to get, about 150 games, about 28 homers, and about a 110 OPS+. He’ll only be 32 next year, so there’s a reasonable chance he can keep doing this for a few more years.

HoME Outlook:
No, there’s no reasonable projection of Adam Jones that suggests he can get to the HoME. However, I could envision a scenario where he reached 400 home runs and 2500 hits. If he does that, he’d join only Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, and Carlos Beltran among center fielders with those numbers. If this were 1997, we could create a scenario under which he’d get enough votes. As the voters improve, however, that’s less and less likely.
—Miller

Jacoby Ellsbury

2017 BBREF WAR:
1.7

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller:   79
Ahead of Lorenzo Cain, Lloyd Waner, and unranked guys.
Trailing Benny Kauff, Grady Sizemore, and Dode Paskert.

Eric: 84
Ahead of Gary Pettis, Lloyd Waner, and teeming throngs of the middle pasture
Trailing Lorenzo Cain, Dode Paskert, and Rick Monday

Current career trajectory:
Health hasn’t been Ellsbury’s calling card in his career, and he’s simply not the player many hoped he would be after his breakout 2011 campaign. It’s been a while since then with mediocre season after mediocre season. He’s signed for three more years, which is pretty funny if you’re not a Yankee fan. If you’re looking for a positive, he did have the best BB rate of his career in 2017. That’s not nothing. Just close to it…

HoME Outlook:
Through age-33, his profile isn’t so different from that of Phil Rizzuto. So Ellsbury’s path to the Hall seems to be laying down a track with Meatloaf and becoming an insane announcer who checks out of games early, both intellectually and literally. Even if things work out for him, he’s unlikely to be among the best 70 center fielders ever.
—Miller

Clearly, Miller underrates Ells. Doesn’t breaking the coveted catcher’s interference record get someone at least to the borderline?
—Eric

Lorenzo Cain

2017 BBREF WAR:
5.3

Rank at the position after 2017:
Miller:   80
Ahead of Lloyd Waner and guys I haven’t ranked.
Trailing Jacoby Ellsbury, Benny Kauff, and Grady Sizemore.

Eric: 81
Ahead of Dod Paskert, Rick Monday, and Jacoby Ellsbury
Trailing Curt Welch, Chicken Wolf, and Grady Sizemore

Current career trajectory:
Cain didn’t become a regular until he was 27 or 28, which is why we shouldn’t expect so many more seasons from him like this one. On the other hand, his vast skill set should be able to hold up for a few more years. Those hoping to sign Cain this winter may point to career best K and BB rates, and then salivate. Others will see that his calling card great defense has been getting less great for years, and he’s on what they call the wrong side of 30.

HoME Outlook:
Guys who start as regulars at age 27 don’t get into the HoME, and Cain will be no different. But let’s imagine another season like last year followed by a long slow fade to one win per year. If that happened, he’ll retire at a level with Earl Averill, Mike Cameron, and Dale Murphy. There’s nothing wrong with that.
—Miller

We finish the outfield with right fielders on Monday.

The Best Season Ever, Pitchers

Last week we looked at the best seasons ever by position players. In doing so, we focused primarily on the regular season. That was in part so as not to include the likes of Bill Mazeroski and Joe Carter. It was also because four or seven or even 20 games in the playoffs can’t give us a complete picture of a hitter’s season, no matter how great those few games. Somewhat differently, pitchers can absolutely control a series. In the last 30 years we can think about Madison Bumgarner, Orel Hershiser, and others, a World Series completely dominated by one arm.

There’s also another issue when it comes to pitcher WAR that’s different than for hitter WAR. Of the 117 pitcher seasons with 10+ WAR, 68 of them occurred in seasons without a World Series. Pitching has changed. Hitting has changed. The entire game has changed and keeps changing. I’m sticking to my thoughts from the last post that you must have won the World Series to have a claim to the best season ever, even though the largest WAR seasons are from the 1800s.

So to come up with a list, I looked at every pitcher in the World Series era who’s had even 8 WAR in a season. Then I sorted for those who won the Series. That left me with 24 pitcher seasons by 23 different pitchers. The next step was to look only at the pitchers who performed well enough in the playoffs. Here they are, the best 15 seasons ever by pitchers.

#15, Mordecai Brown, 1908, 8.2 WAR

This season doesn’t get the credit you might think when looking at Brown’s 2-0 World Series record. That’s because his first win came in just two innings of relief during which he allowed an unearned run. Yes, there was a three-hit shutout to put the Cubs up 3-1. But others have been better in both the regular and post-season.

#14, Greg Maddux, 1995, 9.7 WAR

Maddux and his Braves very famously kept winning the NL East but not winning the World Series. Except for 1995. And Maddux wasn’t generally not known as a great playoff pitcher, but in 1995 he certainly did his job. He started the first games of the NLDS, gave up three runs in seven innings, while his Braves eventually won 5-4 late. Maddux was so-so in the close out game against the Rockies, giving up four runs in seven innings in the 10-4 win. The NLCS brought a sweep of the Reds. Maddux took the third game and gave up just one run in eight innings. It was the Indians in the World Series. Maddux went the distance with a two-hitter to lead the Braves to a Series opening win. Disappointingly for his standing on this list, Maddux pitched Game 5 and gave up four runs in seven innings to lose.

#13, Bill James, 1914, 8.2 WAR

Before the days of the Baseball Abstract, there was another Bill James. Actually, there were two. They were almost exact contemporaries, and I can’t really tell them apart. This one was awesome for the 1914 Miracle Braves. And that’s all he did. He pitched more innings that season than the rest of his career combined. His career batting WAR is higher than his pitching WAR outside of this campaign. He is absolutely the most shocking guy on this list or any like it. James didn’t get the call in the World Series opener. Dick Rudolph did. In the second he was glorious, outdueling Eddie Plank with a two-hit shutout in a 1-0 win. Up a pair of games, the A’s called on him in relief in Game 3. He pitched the 11^th and 12^th. His Braves scored, he got the win, and they completed the Series sweep a day later.

#12, Babe Ruth, 1916, 8.7 WAR

When someone mentions that Barry Bonds or Willie Mays is the best player ever, just ask them how their favorites fared on the mound. Let’s be clear – before Babe Ruth became one of the few best hitters ever, he was an outstanding pitcher. Nothing Bonds, Mays, or anyone else did could come close to Ruth’s early work with the Red Sox. With the Red Sox up a game, Ruth pitched and pitched and pitched. After allowing an inside-the-park home run in the first, Ruth got it back himself with a ribbie in the third. Then he won the game with his arm, pitching 14 innings. The Sox walked it off to go up 2-0, and Ruth cemented his status as a star. The Red Sox won in five games, so Ruth never pitched again, but it’s hard to ask for more than what he gave them.

#11, Lefty Gomez, 1937, 9.4 WAR

I wish Lefty Gomez weren’t in the Hall of Fame. He was a fine pitcher whose best historical comp may be someone like Jose Rijo. And while he doesn’t belong in the Hall, he does belong on this list if you agree with my criteria. He won the pitching triple crown in 1937 while also leading the league in shutouts and ERA+. By themselves, those are some pretty amazing credentials. In the World Series, he got the call in the opener. His Yankees crushed Carl Hubbell, and he was very good in an 8-1 win. His next start was to close it in Game 5, which is exactly what he did. He drove in a run and scored one, as the Yankees won 4-2. Though he’s not a Hall of Famer, he did post one of the best pitcher seasons ever.

#10, Eddie Cicotte, 1917, 11.4 WAR

Before the Black Sox, Eddie Cicotte was one of the game’s best pitchers, and 1917 was his signature campaign, the one with the highest WAR on this list. When the World Series came, he was excellent. He opened things by allowing just one run to defeat Slim Sallee and the Giants, even adding a single himself. He started two games later, but the Sox couldn’t push across a run and lost 2-0. With the World Series tied at two games, the White Sox went with Reb Russell. He couldn’t record an out, to the Sox turned to Cicotte for an emergency relief performance. He pitched six innings, giving up just one earned, and Chicago won 8-5 to put them on the brink of a championship.

#9, Carl Hubbell, 1933, 8.8 WAR

King Carl, the game’s best pitcher in 1933, led his Giants to the World Series against the Senators after leading the NL in most every pitching category during the season. He started the opener, gave up five hits, two unearned runs, and struck out ten, as New York won the game 4-2. Up 2-1 Hubbell again took to the mound in Game 4. His defense was again somewhat unhelpful, as he gave up an unearned run over 11 innings in a 2-1 win. The Giants also won the next day, so Hubbell didn’t get another start, but he had two hits and allowed zero earned runs over 20 innings in his two October outings.

#8, Ron Guidry, 1978, 9.6 WAR

Were it not for Guidry winning his 25^th game of the season in a one-game playoff against Boston, he wouldn’t have had a chance to make this list. Born in another Yankee era, his numbers would have been enough to make the underrated pitcher into an overrated one because of undeserved induction into the Hall. In ’78, however, Guidry certainly seemed to be a Hall of Famer. After the win against the Red Sox, he needed a few days off. His only ALCS start was up 2-1 against the Royals. Guidry was great, allowing just one run in eight innings as New York closed things out with a 2-1 victory. When the World Series followed, Guidry again needed some time to rest. And when he came back, the Dodgers were up two games to zero. Again, Guidry was excellent, leading his squad to a 5-1 victory. New York won the next three, so Guidry didn’t get another start, perhaps somewhat diminishing his ranking here.

#7, Curt Schilling, 2001, 8.8 WAR

A great clutch pitcher may have done his best work in 2001. His playoff totals brought his innings and strikeouts over 300 and his win total to 26. He both opened and closed the NLDS against the Cardinals. The first game was a three-hit shutout. And he closed it out with a six-hit, one run complete game win. In the NLCS against the Braves, Randy Johnson did the work in the first and last games. All even in the series, Schilling got the Game 3 start. He scored as many runs as he allowed, and he struck out 12 while allowing only four hits and a run. In the World Series, Schilling won only one game, the first. He was great again – three hits and a run in seven innings. The Diamondbacks led 1-0.  In the fourth game, he once again gave up three hits and a run in seven innings, leaving the game up 3-1, but the pen blew it. He got the call again in Game 7. This time it was seven and a third innings with two runs. Arizona was behind when he left, but they scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Yankees and Mariano Rivera. Schilling was co-MVP. His partner in crime remains to come on this list.

#6, Steve Carlton, 1980, 10.2 WAR

We all know that Carlton’s 1972 was his best regular season, but few remember 1980 as an amazing campaign despite its obvious quality. After leading the NL in wins, whiffs, innings, and ERA+, Lefty took the mound against an impressive Houston squad in the NLCS. His seven innings of one-run ball led Philadelphia to a 3-1 win in the opener. Carlton was less than spectacular in the fourth game, allowing a pair of runs in only five and a third innings. The Phillies would lose that game in 10 innings before closing out the NLCS in the fourth extra inning game out of five the next night. Carlton was better in the World Series. He started the second game, pitched eight innings, gave up 3 earned, and helped Philadelphia to a 2-0 lead with their 6-4 win. Up 3-2, he was called upon to close things out, and that’s what he did. After seven innings and just one run, Tug McGraw ended a run of 97 years of not winning a title.

#5, Sandy Koufax, 1965, 8.1 WAR

Though he’s one of the most overrated pitchers ever, he’s the only one who appears on this list twice, and he did have one of the best pitcher peaks we’ve ever seen. He deserves to be here twice. In 1965 Koufax led the league in everything. His 2.04 ERA was his worst from 1963 until his retirement after 1966, but the guy still won the pitching triple crown with 382 strikeouts. The ’65 Fall Classic was a great one, and Koufax got his first call down one game against Jim Kaat. He would have gotten the call earlier but chose not to pitch the opener because of the Yom Kippur holiday. An error in the sixth by Jim Gilliam preceded a bunt, double, and single. Koufax had given up two runs and was lifted for a pinch hitter next inning. Down 2-0, Los Angeles rebounded. When Koufax took the mound again, the Series was tied. A weak hitter, he had a hit and ribbie, and he gave up four hits and no runs. The Dodgers were just one win away. And since LA couldn’t close things out the next game, they got to hand the ball to Koufax once again. And he delivered again, a three-hit shutout in Game Seven to cap off an unbelievable season.

#4, Randy Johnson, 2001, 10.0 WAR

He and Schilling were the 1927-1928 Ruth and Gehrig of the 2001 D’backs. Playoffs included, the amazing Big Unit struck out 419 batters in 2001. Albert Pujols took him deep in his NLDS start, and Johnson took the loss. It got better from there. He pitched a three-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts to give Arizona a win in the NLCS opener against Greg Maddux and the Braves. He then closed things out, pitching seven innings while giving up only two runs in a 3-2 win. Already up a game in the World Series against the Yankees, Johnson threw a three-hit, 11 strikeout shutout. His next start came in Game 6, down 3-2 in the Series. Johnson was good, giving up six hits and two runs in seven innings. Arizona crushed 15-2. And they called on him again the next night. He retired all four batters he faced to become the pitcher of record in the improbable Diamondback comeback. It was his third win of the World Series and his fifth win of the playoffs.

#3, Sandy Koufax, 1963, 10.7 WAR

By WAR, 1963 was Sandy’s best season. He posted his first of three career pitching triple crowns while winning 25 of 30 decisions. And even though the 1963 World Series wasn’t as exciting as that of 1965, it was another Koufax showcase. He started the opener and struck out 15 Yankees to win 5-2. Up 3-0, Koufax tried to close out the sweep, and he did. This time he struck out only eight but gave up just six hits in the 2-1 Game 4 win. The Dodgers were champs, and Koufax was their superstar.

#2, Stan Coveleski, 1920, 8.5 WAR

During the 1920 regular season, Coveleski and Jim Bagby were a pretty awesome two-headed monster. Bagby won 31 games, but the World Series showed Coveleski to be a better pitcher. If Bagby were better, he’d be on this list too. It’s not exactly the performance we’ll see at #1 on this list, but it’s incredible nonetheless. Coveleski, the ace, started Game 1. He allowed five hits and a run to get Cleveland the early 1-0 lead in the Series. Down 2-1, Coveleski drew the Game 4 start. Once again he gave up five hits and a run. This time he had a hit and run scored himself. And Cleveland tied things at two games each. They also won the next two games and called on Covey to close out the best of nine. That’s exactly what he did. He gave up five more hits, but this time it was a shutout. He scored a run in this one too, so he scored the same number of runs he allowed in the World Series. A truly incredible performance all year.

#1, Christy Mathewson, 1905, 9.1 WAR

A winner of the pitching triple crown with a 230 ERA+, Mathewson was even better in the World Series. Yes, he was better. To open things up, he threw a four-hit shutout and had a hit of his own to put the Giants up a game. After losing the second game, they brought Matty back. Again, he pitched a four-hit shutout while singling himself. New York also won Game 4, so they brought Big Six back to end it. And he did. This was just a five-hit shutout with a walk and a run scored. So he scored more runs than he allowed. Zero runs in 27 innings. Three World Series shutouts. Amazing! And the best pitching season ever.

Miller

The Best Season Ever, Position Players

A friend recently asked me what player had the best season ever. And I didn’t know. I remembered that Babe Ruth in 1927 and Carl Yastrzemski in 1967 had the same ridiculous WAR, and I chose Ruth’s 1927 season, forgetting how astoundingly good his 1923 was.

I got thinking more deeply about the question, and I started thinking about something we don’t often discuss at the HoME – the playoffs. While the HoME may be an individual honor, the idea of best all-time season should have a team component. If you don’t make the playoffs, or if you lose your season’s final game, you leave that campaign with a bit of a bitter taste in your mouth. Or at least you should. If your team doesn’t win it all, you haven’t had the greatest season of all time, no matter what you did personally.

So what I did was check out all 56 seasons of 10+ WAR by position players (I’ll have a post dealing with pitchers a bit later). Then I isolated just those of players who won the World Series. As it turns out, only 11 times did a 10-win player’s teammates help enough to get a World Series trophy. So what I did next was look at the 9-win seasons with excellent World Series performances. Doing so added four more seasons to our list.

And we’re counting ‘em down.

#15, Eddie Collins, 1913, 9.0 WAR

For me, Collins is the most underappreciated inner circle guy ever. His is the weakest regular season on the list, but it’s one of the stronger World Series. He hit .421/.450/.630 with three stolen bases in the five game thrashing of the Giants. To set the stage in Game 1, he went 3-3 with three runs scored. Two games later it was 3-5 with two runs and three driven in. Collins’ World Series performance was great, but there was nothing so incredibly dramatic. And again, his regular season performance is the weakest on our list.

#14, Mickey Mantle, 1961, 10.5 WAR

Mantle’s 1961 season featured the home run chase with Roger Maris that made the season famous. It was actually Mantle’s third best year by WAR, but it’s his second on this list since the Yanks didn’t win the 1957 World Series. Mantle’s ’61 campaign ranks this low because of his .167/.167/.167 line in a five game hammering of the overmatched Reds.

#13, Joe Morgan, 1976, 9.6 WAR

The Big Red Machine was at its best in a 4-0 sweep of the Yankees in the ’76 Fall Classic. Morgan was great, going .333/.412/.733. He homered in the opener, had two hits next game, drove in a run in the third, and scored one and stole his fourth base in the finale.

#12, Willie Mays, 1954, 10.6 WAR

After a tremendous regular season, Say Hey was quiet in October. But even if he had a line better than .286/.444/.357, it would be pretty hard to elevate him because the Giants swept the Indians. No real drama.

#11, Honus Wagner, 1909, 9.2 WAR

The Flying Dutchman’s season was merely pedestrian by the standards of this list, and it was only his fourth best campaign overall, at least by WAR. But at 35, it was his only World Series win, and he was excellent, hitting .333/.467/.500. Wagner had a hit and a run in the Game 1 win; three hits, a run, and two batted in during the Game 3 win; a hit and a run during the Game 5 win; and a hit, a run, and two batted in during the Game 7 close out.

#10, Tris Speaker, 1912, 10.1 WAR

It was the eighth game of the 1912 World Series. Christy Mathewson was on the mound for the Giants trying to knot the Series at four games each. But after an error and a walk, Tris Speaker stepped to the plate with one out. He singled in a run to tie the game… On one hand, it was the bottom of the inning. On the other, it only tied the game, Speaker didn’t score the winning run, and the Sox could have lost this game and still won the World Series. Speaker was very good in the Series with a .300/.382/.467, yet he stays at #9. More drama and better seasons are ahead.

#9, Lou Gehrig, 1928, 9.4 WAR

The Iron Horse was an absolute monster in the 1928 World Series, even better than Ruth. He hit .545/.706/.1.727, and he homered four times in the four games, once in the second game and the finale, two more in Game 3.

#8, Lou Boudreau, 1948, 10.4 WAR

Of all players on this list, Boudreau is the most surprising. That’s not because he’s not great, just because he’s not an inner circle guy. He had only season over 8 WAR and only five above 4.5 WAR. Backed by an unusually high .360 BABIP, Old Shufflefoot led the Indians to their last World Series title, but he wasn’t great when they got there, hitting a pedestrian .273/.333/.455. Still, the guy is the only player/manager on the list. That has to count for something. The combination of being the team’s best player and their manager, vaults him ahead of others with stronger WAR or postseason work.

#7, Joe Morgan, 1975, 10.9 WAR

Little Joe only posted a .259/.364/.296 line in the 1975 Fall Classic. What he did in two key games gets him to this level. In the bottom of the 10^th in Game 3, he singled in Cesar Geronimo to win the game. Then with two outs in Game 7’s 9^th inning, he singled in the tie-breaking run to give the Reds the World Series victory.

#6, Eddie Collins, 1910, 10.5 WAR

The Athletic star had a phenomenal season, and then he starred in the World Series to the tune of .429/.478/.619. He was great. It was hard to be much greater. But his team was so dominant, outscoring the overmatched Cubs by 20 runs in five games. Others were even greater, or they had a harder road to the title.

#5, Babe Ruth, 1928, 10.1 WAR

We’re looking at nearly the most impressive World Series performance of the bunch, even if it was second to Gehrig’s that year. Ruth homered three times, all in the Game 4 finale, en route to a .615/.647/.1.375 line. The Yankees outscored the Cards 27-10 in the sweep, and it was Babe’s sixth ring. Of course, the four remaining regular seasons were all better than the 1928 vintage of the Bambino, and it was hard to have had an easier ride in October.

#4, Mickey Mantle, 1956, 11.2 WAR

This season was vintage Mantle, as good as it got, and just about as good as it ever got. In the World Series, he was merely good with a .250/.400/.667 line, and the Yankees needed him to be. His biggest hit was a solo homer to break a scoreless tie in the fourth inning of Game 5. The Yankees won 2-0 and took a 3-2 lead in the Series. If he were better in the World Series, this would be the second best season ever.

#3, Lou Gehrig, 1927, 11.8 WAR

In the World Series, Gehrig drove in a pair of runs in the one-run Game 1 against the Pirates. That’s cool. And he hit .308/.438/.769. That’s cool too. A strong World Series and an incredible regular season get him here.

#2, Babe Ruth, 1927, 12.4 WAR

Like Gehrig, Ruth was a star in the ’27 World Series. He had three hits and scored two runs in a one-run opening game. He hit a three-run homer two games later. And to close things out, he homered again and drove in three. A .400/.471/.800 line seals the deal over Gehrig for the second best season ever.

#1, Babe Ruth, 1923, 14.1 WAR

Ultimately, the best regular season ever is the best season ever. Ruth homered three times in the six game World Series win, while the rest of the team homered just twice. In Game 2, he homered twice in a 4-2 Yankee win. And he got the scoring started in the deciding game with another homer in the top of the first. His overall line of .400/.471/.800 plus the most incredible regular season we can imagine makes Babe Ruth’s 1923 season the best one ever.

Miller

The Best Player Ever?

Eric and I recently finished a series of posts where we ranked the 100 best players in baseball history. In that series I used the argument that there are only two players who could be baseball’s best, that is, if we want to be accurate. There’s a third who many tout. And in this post, I’ll construct an argument, one that I don’t really believe, that there might be a fourth. If I don’t believe it, why do it? Well, that’s a fair question. I’m doing it only because I think it’s fun. And that’s what this project should be all about.

The Best Players Ever

The easiest player to rank as the best ever is Babe Ruth. He’s the guy Eric and I put there. He’s the guy ESPN put there. He’s the guy experts and novices alike put there.

My view is that the only other player with a legitimate claim to the top spot is Barry Bonds. If you’re one to hold Ruth back because he didn’t play against the best competition of his time (African Americans, chiefly), or because pitching was far from as refined as it is today, okay. I don’t do that, but if you do, it’s gotta be Barry.

I know, I know. Bonds probably used performance enhancing drugs. And they probably helped his stats. If that’s the case and you really need to go with Willie Mays, I’m not going to debate with you right now. I don’t think that’s a call supported by statistics or logic. But those who tout Mays don’t always use logic beyond their love of a player they saw as a young boy. And that’s not really logic. Anyway, if you want Mays, so be it. I have an argument to make.

The Other Choice

Nolan Ryan struck out over 17% more batters than any other pitcher in history. If you think that’s impressive, Rickey Henderson stole nearly 50% more bases than anyone else ever. On the other hand, pitcher have responsibilities beyond just striking batters out. In many of those areas, Ryan had warts. If he’s outside your top-25 pitchers ever, we’re like-minded. As far as Henderson, I think he’s underrated, but it’s clear non-pitchers have a lot of responsibilities beyond stealing bases. After intensive study, I think you’d find Rickey to rank somewhere from 12-18 among non-pitchers. He’s clearly not the best player ever.

Here’s someone who might be. Mariano Rivera. While pitchers are responsible for more than just strikeouts, and hitters are responsible for more than just stolen bases, relief pitchers aren’t responsible for anything other than stranding runners, getting batters out, and suppressing scoring. That’s really all there is to it. And we can all agree that Mariano Rivera did those things better than any relief pitcher ever.

How much better? Well, if you’ve read the HoME for a while, you’d be at least vaguely familiar with my MAPES ranking system. For relievers it includes a mix of peak, prime, and career WAR. It also adjusts for reliever stress by looking at win probability added, and there’s an adjustment for for playoff contribution. Overall, I rank Mariano Rivera as the 29^th best pitcher ever. The next best reliever, Goose Gossage, comes in at 86^th.

That’s a pretty great difference. Let’s see how great by looking at their MAPES separation. There’s a difference of nearly 29% in terms of their MAPES rankings. That’s greater than the difference between Babe Ruth and the seventh best non-pitcher ever, Hank Aaron. And it’s far greater than the difference between Walter Johnson and the third best pitcher ever, Roger Clemens.

Conclusions

Mariano isn’t the best player ever. But there’s a greater difference between him and his closest rival than there is between the best hitter and second best, the best pitcher and second best, and the best player at any other position and the second best.

If you squint and look at things sideways, there’s a chance you might call Mariano the best player in baseball history. I won’t, though I think it’s an interesting concept to consider.

Miller