All-Time HoME Leaders, Pitcher – 81-100

A conversation Eric and I need to have is one about cleaning up the HoME. When the Hall elects a clunker, he’s in forever. Same at the Hall of Merit. They honor their voters in that way. Over at the Hall of Stats, Adam Darowski makes things simple. Those over the line are in, while those under it are out. Changes welcome. Right now, we operate in the same way as the Halls of Merit and Fame.

Such a system supports the idea that we’re not embarrassed by our mistakes, and it honors the decisions we’ve made. On the other hand, we’re just two people who continue to learn. It could be said that it’s a bigger crime to have the wrong players in the HoME than it is to change our minds.

I don’t know, but it’s a conversation we need to have. Today you’ll see Pud Galvin ranked #91 and #98, and Whitey Ford is ranked at #83 and #100. We both rank Dizzy Dean above this pair. Eddie Rommel and Charlie Buffinton too. At the very least, it’s worth a conversation.

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This is the penultimate post in a pretty long series. If you’ve missed any, check ‘em out below.

[MAPES+], [CHEWS+], [1B, 1-20], [1B, 21-40], [2B, 1-20], [2B, 21-40], [3B, 1-20], [3B, 21-40], [SS, 1-20], [SS, 21-40], [C, 1-20], [C, 21-40], [LF, 1-20], [LF, 21-40], [CF, 1-20], [CF, 21-40], [RF, 1-20], [RF, 21-40], [P, 1-20], [P, 21-40], [P, 41-60], [P, 61-80]

Pitcher – 81-100

Where do we project the active player(s) to finish in our rankings?

Max Scherzer

Three Cy Young Awards and two other top-five finishes across the last five seasons, and a start to this year that looks like another outstanding year. That suggests that his best six years indicate a reputation in his own time to Sandy Koufax. Koufax won three Cy Youngs and finished third one other time. He earned six straight All-Star Game berths, and Scherzer should get his sixth this year. Koufax’s actual performance is more dominant, leading to an MVP award and two second-place MVP finishes. But Scherzer balances Koufax out because he can hit a little and because his performance prior to his outstanding peak is better. Scherzer tossed 805 innings with a 110 ERA+ and 11.7 WAR. Koufax threw 692 innings with a 100 ERA+ and 6.7 WAR. What I’m saying is that right now, assuming his 2018 continues on like this, Scherzer is basically Koufax. So that puts him on the borderline. It’s all a question of how many more seasons he has and how many more are at a high level. The top forty is not out of the question.—Eric

Cole Hamels

For me, Hamels is a little like Ian Kinsler, except that it took me a lot longer to really appreciate what Hamels is doing. I mean, I’ve seen the guy’s whole career and watched him a bunch in the playoffs, yet I don’t think I really paid close attention until he was traded to the American League. He’s 34 now and bouncing back from an un-Hamels-like campaign in 2017. We’re looking at about 4 WAR this season if he keeps up his first half pace. To see what the rest might be, I looked at all pitchers within 5% of his innings and 5% of his ERA+ through age 33. Then I dumped anyone who pitched before WWII ended. Those on the list very much resemble the chart Eric showed you last week when he discussed Hamels. It’s Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, John Smoltz, Mike Mussina, Jim Bunning, Kevin Appier, and Bret Saberhagen. Let’s dump the two actives and consider just the other five. Below is their seasonal WAR with my adjustments for the remainder of their careers.

           34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42   Total
=====================================================================
Mussina   7.2   2.9   3.5   5.2   1.1   5.1                     24.99
Smoltz    1.0   3.2   1.2   3.3   5.1   5.9   4.3   0.7   -0.5  24.03
Bunning   9.0   8.0  -1.7   0.3   2.6  -2.0                     16.14
Sabes     3.0   4.0        -0.1                                  6.94
Appier    2.2   0.3  -0.4                                        2.10

So we see quite a range. I think the Appier path means he won’t reach the HoME, and that’s quite possible. With the Saberhagen path, he has a shot. If his run out is like Mussina or Smoltz, he’s a no-brainer. The median guy is Bunning. If we spread out those years in a way that makes more sense, Hamels would finish right behind Saberhagen for me. And that would get him a spot in the HoME. Should be interesting.

Where do our rankings diverge the most from the conventional wisdom?

I want to talk about Mickey Welch. He pitched from 1880-1892 in the National League, won 307 games, and is in the Hall of Fame. Even though I rank him 77^th all-time, he’s not close to a HoME vote for me, given that there are other pitchers of his era well ahead of him and not enshrined. Eric ranks him a laughable #156, kind of like Al Leiter. So as far away as he is for me, he’s miles away from that for Eric. Brian Kenny would be happy that we mention Welch here, as he’s a great example of our need to kill the win. Welch won 116 total games for the New York Giants from 1884-1886, a period during which he pitched about half of all innings for an okay New York team. He led the game in walks each of those years, and his 125 ERA+ is pretty tiny compared to those 116 wins. Before that run, his ERA+ was just 101. Afterwards, it was 116. So what we’re looking at is an above average pitcher whose three great years actually weren’t that great. I think Welch is a bad choice for the Hall of Fame; Eric thinks he’s a miserable one.

Oh, we both also rank Frank Tanana higher on our lists than Tommy John. And, um, Whitey Ford. Want to touch that one, Eric?—Miller

Yeah, Whitey Ford. We could look at all 20 of these moundsmen and find big differences with the CW. Mark Langston, George Uhle, Nap Rucker? Not too many advocates out there for them. Then there’s Roy Oswalt. He retired at 35 and hadn’t been good or healthy for a few years. He never won a Cy Young He was elected to only three All-Star Games. He picked up very little black ink. But he’s got a nice peak/prime-oriented case. He’s one or two seasons short of the Hall level, but I suspect we’re one or two standard deviations outside the opinion of most observers.—Eric

Where do we disagree with one another the most?

Kenny Rogers is pretty high on my list. He’s not very high on Miller’s list. There’s twenty-nine slots between us. This seems likely to be related to his seasons in relief. BBREF calculates 2.1 WAR for him in those years. I give him 4.7 after my little relief adjustments. Given how tightly packed all of these guys are, it probably makes the difference.—Eric

Have I mentioned Mickey Welch? On another note, Eric wants more of a conversation about electing Mark Buehrle. I want to talk more about kicking out Whitey Ford.—Miller

Are there any players who MAPES+/CHEWS+ might overrate or underrate? 

My peak-centric system likes Wilbur Wood, though he produced more campaigns below 1 WAR than above. I don’t know how I feel about someone useless for half of his career being as close to the line as he is. Even if he were over the line, I think I’d find a way to avoid supporting him. I do wonder what might have been had Wood figured things out before he turned 30 though.—Miller

Practically every pitcher on this list is here because he wasn’t quite good enough or good for long enough. So this is a spot where any small nits in our respective systems can be picked and picked again. But there are things outside our analytical frameworks that complicate our view on a player. For example, Clark Griffith, for me, is nearly unelectable. Why? Because we’ve elected waaaayyyyy too many people from the 1890s, and Cupid Childs is on the outside looking in. So if we are serious about being fair to all eras, Griffith is out until the HoME elects another 50 or 100 people. We could also talk about Mark Langston. While both of us have preferences for peak versus career value, a pitcher like Langston pushes the outer limits of our thinking. He’s about one excellent season short of a Koufaxian profile, and a lot of his surrounding years are as spotty as Koufax’s first six years. How much value should we put on peak versus career value? The flipside, of course, is Don Sutton with 5,000 innings, 300 wins, and a mere 23.3 WAA. BBREF has him down for just three All-Star quality seasons. Personally, I have two after my series of adjustments. But maybe I’m wrong? Maybe there’s additional, undetected value to bulk innings? Studies suggest that Don Sutton’s pennant-adding value is more than I give it credit for. Finally, there’s the issue of pre-1893 pitching, you know back when dudes threw more innings in a year than most closers throw in a career. Do the methods we have now adequately capture the value of a pitcher when a whole team only employees one or two of them?—Eric

Just as a counter-point, I’m happy Griffith is in as a combination candidate, and I don’t think we’re way over in the 1890s or any era. Simply, we measure how many people should represent an era differently. And there’s more than one defensible conclusion. I’d explain here if I thought people actually cared. But I caution you, fine readers, before you ask, know that the answer might make watching paint dry seem enjoyable. You know, if you’re close enough to catch some fumes.—Miller

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We hope to see you back here next week for the final installment in this series.